NYC Mayoral Election

[© tweed]

We all know Bloomberg is going to win.  But the question is who he will beat.

The last poll was done by Quinnipiac I say had professional Mark Green-style retread Fernando Ferrer on top with about 34%, and C. Virginia Fields, Anthony Weiner, and Gifford Miller bunched up at 15-17%. 

The primary should be interesting, at least.  To avoid a runoff, a candidate must get 40%.  and that's far from a lock in this case.

[Ben Meyers]

Poor Weiner.  Hasn't he wanted to be Mayor for a while now?

[Defarge]

Ferrer will be the nominee.  Who he'll end up facing in the runoff remains up in the air.

While I would vote for Bloomberg in the general, I'm personally pulling for Ferrer in the primary.  It will be alot better for the party in general if we can avoid the runoff and conserve our energy for 2009.  We don't need to have a divisive primary over an election we're not going to win anyways.

[patrick1]

We all know Bloomberg is going to win.  But the question is who he will beat.

Given the demographics in NYC, I wouldn't say this like it is a foregone conclusion.  He has a healthy lead in the polls but a lot can happen in NYC in a few months.  Say some latino or black guy gets another plunger shoved up his arse by the boys in blue and Mayor Mike is not seen as doing enough to stop police discrimination- Rev Al's on the streets and a candidate like Ferrer will bring a coalition together to beat Mikey. Bloomberg himself rode the unforeseen events of Sept. 11th. into office.

[Smash255]

We all know Bloomberg is going to win.  But the question is who he will beat.

Given the demographics in NYC, I wouldn't say this like it is a foregone conclusion.  He has a healthy lead in the polls but a lot can happen in NYC in a few months.  Say some latino or black guy gets another plunger shoved up his arse by the boys in blue and Mayor Mike is not seen as doing enough to stop police discrimination- Rev Al's on the streets and a candidate like Ferrer will bring a coalition together to beat Mikey. Bloomberg himself rode the unforeseen events of Sept. 11th. into office.

Combined with the brutal brutal campaign by Green.

[patrick1]

We all know Bloomberg is going to win.  But the question is who he will beat.

Given the demographics in NYC, I wouldn't say this like it is a foregone conclusion.  He has a healthy lead in the polls but a lot can happen in NYC in a few months.  Say some latino or black guy gets another plunger shoved up his arse by the boys in blue and Mayor Mike is not seen as doing enough to stop police discrimination- Rev Al's on the streets and a candidate like Ferrer will bring a coalition together to beat Mikey. Bloomberg himself rode the unforeseen events of Sept. 11th. into office.

Combined with the brutal brutal campaign by Green.

Green being Green really.  An annoying and uncharismatic man.  Bloomberg is a damn dynamo compared to Green.  At least Green was out on the streets working as advocate.  Gautbaum is holed up due to some supposed stalker.  Aside: What has Gautbaum done anyway?  Advocates are supposed to be out there complaining about bullsh!t like killer candy and unsafe whatever_____.

[AuH2O]

Green is probably better than the current crop though. Ferrer? Please.

[© tweed]

The only thing any Dem has contributed to this race so far is Gifford Miller's use of the word "boondaggle" when describing Bloomberg's stadium plan, in a Gifford Miller commercial.  Very impressive.

[Smash255]

The only thing any Dem has contributed to this race so far is Gifford Miller's use of the word "boondaggle" when describing Bloomberg's stadium plan, in a Gifford Miller commercial.  Very impressive.

The stadium deal falling apart greatly helps Bloomberg.  It was very unpopular & Bloomberg will still be attacked for his support of it, but if it went through he would really have been slammed on it due to the tremendous costs

[© tweed]

New NYT Poll:

Ferrer 29%
Weiner 13%
Fields 12%
Miller 10%

40% avoids a runoff, which Ferrer hasn't yet clinched despite his big lead.

Bloomberg leads Ferrer 52-34%, Fields 55-28%, Miller 56-27%, and Weiner 56-29%.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/31/nyregion/metrocampaigns/31poll.html

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It's ova, folks!  It's ova!

[Lincoln Republican]

Has there been any more thought lately by any group to recruit Bill Clinton to run for NYC Mayor?

Does anybody have the latest on this?

I would be interested to know.

Thanks.

[© tweed]

Has there been any more thought lately by any group to recruit Bill Clinton to run for NYC Mayor?

Does anybody have the latest on this?

I would be interested to know.

Thanks.

I've heard nothing on the topic for probably 3 years now.  He obviously isn't running this year, but it isn't inconceivable that he'd run in 2009.

[Smash255]

haven't heard anything about it, he runs he wins in a landslide

[Cubby]

What is NYC Democrats problem with Gifford Miller? Is it that he is too young (inexperienced)? Or is it a race-issue thing, like all the minority Dems support Ferrer and the White Dems cross over to Bloomberg?

[dazzleman]

What is NYC Democrats problem with Gifford Miller? Is it that he is too young (inexperienced)? Or is it a race-issue thing, like all the minority Dems support Ferrer and the White Dems cross over to Bloomberg?

Probably the latter.  A large percentage of Democrats plan to vote for Bloomberg.  NYC mayoral politics have de facto broken down along racial lines, with whites of either party, together with some latinos, supporting the Republican candidate, while blacks and certain latinos supporting the Democratic candidate.

It has reached the point where a white candidate almost can't win on the Democratic line, because he'd have to beat a minority candidate in the primaries, and that is considered a mortal sin by minority Democratic voters.  The Democrats in NYC mayoral elections are being hoist on their own racial petard; after decades of milking black resentment to get votes, they have now created a monster they can't control.

[patrick1]

Regarding his lack of drawing power: Gifford Miller is a Whitle anglo Protestant who grew up wealthy and went to private boarding schools.   I don't think most NY primary Dems  feel that he really understands their problems.  He simply doesn't have a built in demographic base at all, save for a few small pockets of old money in Manhattan.  By contrast, Bloomberg is super rich, but he is Jewish and has a automatic base of people who will vote for him.   Further,  Bloomberg is able to build a coalition of white ethnics scared of Dinkins II and enough crossover "minorities" to win.  That crossover of "minorities" all depends on who the candidate is- If Ferrer he gets more blacks and less latinos Weiner more crossover from both, Fields more latinos and less blacks etc etc. 

Perhaps I am over stating the level of identity politics, but not by much. 

[Defarge]

It's sad Patrick but you hit it right on the nail.

[© tweed]

The guy among the Dems who I think picked the wrong year to run is Anthony Weiner.  He's Jewish, and was raised in a middle-class neighborhood, so he can identify with voters.  I think one day he'll have a good chance to be mayor, maybe as soon as 2009.

[Sam Spade]

Regarding his lack of drawing power: Gifford Miller is a Whitle anglo Protestant who grew up wealthy and went to private boarding schools.   I don't think most NY primary Dems  feel that he really understands their problems.  He simply doesn't have a built in demographic base at all, save for a few small pockets of old money in Manhattan.  By contrast, Bloomberg is super rich, but he is Jewish and has a automatic base of people who will vote for him.   Further,  Bloomberg is able to build a coalition of white ethnics scared of Dinkins II and enough crossover "minorities" to win.  That crossover of "minorities" all depends on who the candidate is- If Ferrer he gets more blacks and less latinos Weiner more crossover from both, Fields more latinos and less blacks etc etc. 

Perhaps I am over stating the level of identity politics, but not by much. 

Just one minor correction here:  Gifford Miller is not a white Anglo-Saxon protestant, he's Jewish.

[© tweed]

I believe today is the date of the primary election for NYC mayor.

[Defarge]

That it is.  Here's to a Ferrer victory.  Let's hope the party stays united behind a single sacraficial lamb rather than engaging in a nasty runoff.

[Ben Meyers]

Where can we see the results?

[dazzleman]

That it is.  Here's to a Ferrer victory.  Let's hope the party stays united behind a single sacraficial lamb rather than engaging in a nasty runoff.

Ferrer is a complete nincompoop, as are the rest of those candidates.

These people want to end fingerprinting of welfare recipients.  Great idea -- let's go back to the day when people were collecting welfare under all sorts of aliases.  What's the matter with these people?  They care nothing for the taxpayers.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That it is.  Here's to a Ferrer victory.  Let's hope the party stays united behind a single sacraficial lamb rather than engaging in a nasty runoff.

Ferrer is a complete nincompoop, as are the rest of those candidates.

These people want to end fingerprinting of welfare recipients.  Great idea -- let's go back to the day when people were collecting welfare under all sorts of aliases.  What's the matter with these people?  They care nothing for the taxpayers.

I'm guessing that all of those candidates are taxpayers.

[Ben Meyers]

That it is.  Here's to a Ferrer victory.  Let's hope the party stays united behind a single sacraficial lamb rather than engaging in a nasty runoff.

Ferrer is a complete nincompoop, as are the rest of those candidates.

These people want to end fingerprinting of welfare recipients.  Great idea -- let's go back to the day when people were collecting welfare under all sorts of aliases.  What's the matter with these people?  They care nothing for the taxpayers.

I agree, ending fingerprinted of welfare recipients is a stupid, moronic idea.