Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[RogueBeaver]

Quite possible but as we've discussed in the general thread there's a cyclical RW surge every 5 years or so since 2002. Those numbers would be on the minority/majority threshold and per La Presse last week, are mirrored in Grit internals.

[mileslunn]

At the moment the CAQ would have a good shot at winning the most seats, but their support is quite soft so whether it holds up or not until election day is a big question mark.  While there are many possibilities, my prediction at the moment would still be a PLQ minority but that could change.  CAQ has a weaker base than the PQ and PLQ, but unlike those two it straddles the sovereignty/federalist line so can appeal to those on both sides.  Their real problem is in the Gaspésie region, Nord du Quebec, Saguenay, Island of Montreal, and Outaouis region, they are largely irrelevant so with no seats in those areas, that means they need to win around 2/3 of the seats in the rest of the province which is possible but quite difficult.

[the506]

PQ MNA Nicole Léger will announce tomorrow she's not running again, and this article says up to 4 others may soon follow suit. It begins.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/01/15/la-pequiste-nicole-leger-quitte-la-vie-politique

[the506]

And now Alexandre Cloutier is leaving:

http://lactualite.com/politique/2018/01/16/exclusif-alexandre-cloutier-quitte-la-vie-politique/

[Poirot]

Strange that they would both announce the same day.

There are 8 Liberals MNA thinking not running or thinking of their future.
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201801/16/01-5150152-huit-deputes-liberaux-en-reflexion-quant-a-leur-avenir.php

Jacques Chagnon (Westmount Saint-Louis). It could make room for Hélène David with the loss of one riding in the new map (Outremont / Mont-Royal area).

Past retirement age: Norbert Morin (Côte-du-Sud) and Pierre Reid (Orford)

In the Quebec City region:
Raymond Bernier (Montmorency) André Drolet (Jean-Lesage) and Michel Matte (Portneuf)

Jean-Marc Fournier has not made a decision but Liberals think he will run. Lise Thériault has been nominated already but there are doubts.

[mileslunn]

With the PQ numbers in bad shape, not surprised many are leaving.  I also suspect some PLQ will as well since even though I still think the PLQ has a decent chance at re-election, it is unlikely they will win as many seats as they did last time around so some marginal ones they will probably lose.  CAQ and QS by contrast should unless they mess up badly hold all the seats they currently hold and maybe pick up a few adjacent ones for QS while for CAQ probably make gains although whether the gains are enough to win outright or not is the big question at this point.  There is a possibility they are peaking too soon.  Also the PLQ still leads amongst seniors who generally vote and in addition to that I've found polls in the past tend to underestimate the PLQ while overestimate QS (Probably since their support is heavily skewed towards millennials who are less likely vote).

[Philly D.]

Taschereau PQ MNA Agnes Maltais is leaving (laicity critic). THANK GOD! Not to mention that for her Quebec City was never spoiled enough by the government.

Also being reported that PQ MNAs Claude Cousineau and Richard Gendron are leaving.

[136or142]

After a decade away, New Democratic Party of Quebec elects its leader

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/after-a-decade-away-new-democratic-party-of-quebec-elects-its-leader-1.3769214#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=2LIzZGi

Raphael Fortin, 37, got his start in politics by volunteering for the federal NDP led by Tom Mulcair. According to his LinkedIn page, he also moonlights as a bartender. (CTV Montreal)

[Hatman 🍁]

Unfortunately they will be irrelevant, doing slightly better than the last left wing federalist party did a few elections ago (the UCQ).

[lilTommy]

Unfortunately they will be irrelevant, doing slightly better than the last left wing federalist party did a few elections ago (the UCQ).

Unfortunately That's going to be the case, QS is already the solid Left-wing option... I do think there is some room among Anglo's who fear QS is too sovereigntist, just not enough I think to really unseat any Liberals (like 10% would be a solid win for the NPDQ) . Also, I know people, anglo's, who are active in reaching out to this group on behalf of QS.
That article also does not give Fortin his due, he's twice been a federal candidate 2008 and 2015, but hey that's not important to mention
 
Best shot, is to pick one riding, very federalist but left-leaning and put ALL their resources into getting Fortin elected. A riding like perhaps Verdun, or Saint-Henri - Sainte-Anne.   

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

[adma]

Never mind CAQ; only 3 pts separating PQ from QS (who've doubled their 2014 share already)

[MaxQue]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

If PQ ends under 20% and QS over 10%, this will relaunch the merger/alliance talks.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

If PQ ends under 20% and QS over 10%, this will relaunch the merger/alliance talks.

Might be tough as PQ is very much a party with largely aging members while QS is much more youth oriented.  QS support is strongest in the urban core working class areas while PQ is more in the rural periphery of the province such as Gaspésie, Abitibi, Saguenay (they could even lose that with these numbers) and North Shore.  Still both are separatists and left leaning, but probably the best thing would be let the PQ wither away and instead have the CAQ for the right, Liberals for the middle, and QS for the left, otherwise similar to other provinces, just different labels.

[RogueBeaver]

Hebert raised the possibility that when Cloutier returns, he'll form some sort of new party or at least try to overhaul the PQ. Aussant's also someone to watch sorting through the wreckage.

[parochial boy]

How come CAQ only get half as much support with non-Francophones as they do with Francophones?

Is this is largely a result of allophones not wanting to vote for a right wing party, or do they do they poorly with anglos as well?

[Hatman 🍁]

How come CAQ only get half as much support with non-Francophones as they do with Francophones?

They're a nationalist party, and and non-Francophones do not like nationalist/separatist parties.

Non francos already have a right wing party to vote for, it's called the PLQ!

[Tintrlvr]

How come CAQ only get half as much support with non-Francophones as they do with Francophones?

Is this is largely a result of allophones not wanting to vote for a right wing party, or do they do they poorly with anglos as well?

CAQ is a pure laine party, these days even more so than the PQ, which includes a fair number of Francophone immigrants in Montreal and its suburbs (from places with French colonial histories: Haiti, Vietnam, west Africa, etc.). CAQ has never made any real effort to appeal to voters who are not pure laine, and the Anglophones and Allophones return the favor. Being anti-independence (for now) isn't enough to win over Anglophone and Allophone voters, nor does it help that Francois Legault, Mario Dumont and many other prominent figures in CAQ and its predecessor the ADQ were once pro-independence, so there is some reason to doubt CAQ's long-term sincerity on being opposed to independence. Plus, the PLQ is a broad-tent party that can appeal to wealthy suburbanite Anglophones, low-income urban Allophones and conservative Anglophones in the rural Outaouais reasonably well without CAQ seeming tempting to any of them.

[mileslunn]

In Quebec, PLQ always wins big amongst Anglophones and Allophones regardless of where they are on the spectrum.  For them ideology is irrelevant, its more which party is most opposed to separatism and is least hostile to English and other language rights.  CAQ is nationalist and Francois Legault was a former separatists so even Anglophones and Allophones on the right will avoid him for this reason and likewise wants to tighten Bill 101 which is hated by Anglophones.

CAQ's strong numbers are less to do with it being right wing and more many in Quebec are sick and tired of choosing between a federalist party (who save a 18 month hiatus has been in power since 2003 so people want change) and having to choose a separatist party (PQ who many fear will have another referendum despite their promise.  Voters for the CAQ come from across the spectrum and are essentially those who want to end the going back and forth between the PQ and PLQ.

[MaxQue]

In Quebec, PLQ always wins big amongst Anglophones and Allophones regardless of where they are on the spectrum.  For them ideology is irrelevant, its more which party is most opposed to separatism and is least hostile to English and other language rights.  CAQ is nationalist and Francois Legault was a former separatists so even Anglophones and Allophones on the right will avoid him for this reason and likewise wants to tighten Bill 101 which is hated by Anglophones.

CAQ's strong numbers are less to do with it being right wing and more many in Quebec are sick and tired of choosing between a federalist party (who save a 18 month hiatus has been in power since 2003 so people want change) and having to choose a separatist party (PQ who many fear will have another referendum despite their promise.  Voters for the CAQ come from across the spectrum and are essentially those who want to end the going back and forth between the PQ and PLQ.

I suspect the Allophones issue with CAQ is more them wanting to cut immigration numbers by 20% (from 50000 per year to 40000).

[parochial boy]

Lol, how did I miss CAQ not being nationalist? I guess it was a presumption on the basis that they are generally stronger in less souverainiste areas like Quebec city or the Beauce.

I guess then, the flip question, is that between them - PQ, QS and CAQ have 30% of the anglo vote? That seems high for nominally nationalist parties?

[RogueBeaver]

New Leger poll: 39/28/20/9. Splendid news! Michel David says that with CAQ at 46% of Francophones, they'd win about 80 seats. Grits lose about half their seats, PQ down to 8 seats. If PQ goes below 20% they lose official party status. Worst PLQ result in seats since 1976.

[Poirot]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

Last year all opposition parties have agreed on the idea of a mixed member proportional sytem based on regions. I don't know if they are all very committed to it of if they would agree on the details of the system.

Around 2006 there was a commission with public hearings on reforms to the electoral law. It covered not only the voting system but I think the recommandation was a MMP system.   

[Hatman 🍁]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

Last year all opposition parties have agreed on the idea of a mixed member proportional sytem based on regions. I don't know if they are all very committed to it of if they would agree on the details of the system.

Around 2006 there was a commission with public hearings on reforms to the electoral law. It covered not only the voting system but I think the recommandation was a MMP system.   

I suppose the PQ sees the writing on the wall re: their declining support. Once upon a time they relied on FPTP to win false majorities thanks to the Liberal vote sinks on the West Island.