Quebec Municipal Elections 2017

[DL]

I don't actually know enough about the municipal governance structure in Montreal to know what powers the mayor has as an executive and how much of his agenda is stymied by council etc... Would it be a French-style co-habitation that would happen when Chirac was President and the left controlled parliament?

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, maybe. But things get murkier considering that unlike a Republic, Montreal's executive also sits on council, like in a parliament.

Right now Gatineau is in a similar situation, but since there's one party and a bunch of independents, it's more akin to a minority government.

[VPH]

Honestly, I'm so torn as to how I'll vote. I dislike Projet Montreal's platform but like Plante personally. I dislike Coderre personally but like Equipe Denis Coderre's platform.

[MaxQue]

I don't actually know enough about the municipal governance structure in Montreal to know what powers the mayor has as an executive and how much of his agenda is stymied by council etc... Would it be a French-style co-habitation that would happen when Chirac was President and the left controlled parliament?

Executive power of mayors is very variable. It's up to the council how big it is.

[lilTommy]

Honestly, I'm so torn as to how I'll vote. I dislike Projet Montreal's platform but like Plante personally. I dislike Coderre personally but like Equipe Denis Coderre's platform.

Vote Plante for mayor and for Equipe Denis Coderre's for council/borough, no?

[VPH]

Honestly, I'm so torn as to how I'll vote. I dislike Projet Montreal's platform but like Plante personally. I dislike Coderre personally but like Equipe Denis Coderre's platform.

Vote Plante for mayor and for Equipe Denis Coderre's for council/borough, no?

I'm probably splitting my ballot for council/borough between Coalition and EDC based on how much I like each candidate. That may be a good option though!

[Hatman 🍁]

Honestly, I'm so torn as to how I'll vote. I dislike Projet Montreal's platform but like Plante personally. I dislike Coderre personally but like Equipe Denis Coderre's platform.

Vote Plante for mayor and for Equipe Denis Coderre's for council/borough, no?

I'm probably splitting my ballot for council/borough between Coalition and EDC based on how much I like each candidate. That may be a good option though!

Nothing stopping you from voting for all three parties!

[DL]

Does the "Coalition" even really exist as anything more than a paper party in Montreal? Seems to me that given how many people are likely to vote a straight party line ticket we are really witnessing a return to the old two party system in Montreal:

Projet Montreal = left of centre, new version of the old MCM from the 70s/80s, mostly NDP, QS and left leaning Liberals and pequistes (such that they exist)
Equipe Denis Coderre = right of centre, new version of Drapeau's Civic Party, business elite, corrupt Tammany Hall type Liberals, CAQuistes and federal Tories

[RogueBeaver]

Duceppe endorses Coderre. 

[DL]

Duceppe endorses Coderre. 

That should help shore up Valerie Plante's support among anglophones and allophones!

[Hatman 🍁]

Duceppe endorses Coderre. 

lol wtf

Duceppe is basically irrelevant anyway

[Poirot]

Coderre's campaign probably believed the polls showing him in danger. The last week was a succession of different people in the administration attacking Projet Montréal on their financial plan or their promises are not realistic.

In newspaper endorsements, the Montreal Gazette says Coderre has earned a second term, even if he made some mistakes.
http://montrealgazette.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-denis-coderre-has-earned-a-second-term

Le Devoir chooses Coderre but want a strong opposition. Olante doesn't have a strong team and a global vision for Montreal's economy.
http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/montreal/512098/mairie-de-montreal-denis-coderre-avec-un-bemol

Last week La Presse endorsed Coderre. The city is in better shape than 4 years ago. The editorial notes the lack of transparency, control of information at city hall and arrongance. Projet Montréal has run a better campaign but doesn't have political experience to lead a metropolis or master the  economic files. Plante has shown great qualities as candidate but voters should not ask who did the better campaign but if the incumbent mayor deserve a second term.
http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/editoriaux/201710/27/01-5141556-un-deuxieme-mandat-pour-denis-coderre.php   

[Poirot]

Does the "Coalition" even really exist as anything more than a paper party in Montreal? Seems to me that given how many people are likely to vote a straight party line ticket we are really witnessing a return to the old two party system in Montreal:

I think the party has debt from the last camapign and could have shut down. Elected officials have joined one of the two parties and I think only long time councillor Marvin Rotrand (Snowdon district) didn't join another party. They are not running many candidates, the core seems to be the borough of Côte-des-Neiges/Notre-Dâme-de-Grâce (in short CDN-NDG) with Rotrand, probably their best chance with another candidate in Darlington who got 30% last election.

Switchers elected under Coalition banner in 2013:
Russell Copeman, borough mayor of CDN-NDG with Equipe Coderre
Réal Ménard, borough mayor Mercjer-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve with EquipeCoderre
Elsie Lefebvre, city councillor Villeray district with Equipe Coderre
Benoit Dorais, borough mayor Le Sud-Ouest with Projet Montréal

Swtichers from Vrai changement party (was Mélanie Joly party)
Normand Marinacci, borough mayor of Ile-Bizard/Ste-Geneviève is running with Projet Montréal
Lorraine Pagé city councillor Sault-au-Récollet in Ahunstic-Cartierville is now with Team Coderre

The leader is a councillor in Pierrefinds-Roxboro borough who is running for borough mayor.
Syeven Shanahan is trying to get reelected in Peter-McGill (downtown Ville-Marie Borough)
The party is not running a candidate for Montreal mayor. They are only present in a few boroughs like Pierrefonds, Ile-Bizard, Lachine, Ville-Marie.

[Poirot]

 There are a few borough specific teams in pre-merger towns, Lachine, LaSalle and Anjou. There doesn't seem to be one anymore in Outremont so one of the main parties could gain borough mayor (I think there is also an independent running).

Manon Barbe (Equipe Barbe) is the borough mayor of LaSsalle. She will vote for Plante because Coderre is more a centralizer of powers at city hall at the expense of boroughs, Palnte is more decentralizer.
http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1063759/mairesse-lasalle-prefere-valerie-plante-mairie-montreal-denis-coderre
Same thing with the mayor of Anjou, Luis Miranda (Equipe Anjou) who is now voting Plante. At first he supported Jean Fortier before he withdraw.

Wikipedia has maps from the 2013 election (so before the party switching before this election.
Montreal council is composed of borough mayors and city councillors. When there are borough councillors elected in some boroughs,  they stay in their borough and are not part of Montreal city council.

Result map for borough mayor:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_municipal_election,_2013#/media/File:Montr%C3%A9al_2013_maires_arrt.svg

Result map for city councillors:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_municipal_election,_2013#/media/File:Montr%C3%A9al_2013_conseillers_ville.svg

There are only two changes to the distriuct map for the 2017 election.

In Le Sud-Ouest borough, the limit between to two districts is moved to the east so now Saint-Henri neighborhood is split. the eastern district has now a long name: Saint-Henri-Est–Petite-Bourgogne–Pointe-Saint-Charles–Griffintown.

In CDN-NDG, Côte-des-Neiges district is taking a small bite into Snowdon district. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I also have maps here: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/11/quebec-municipal-election-results.html

I will have a blog post up tomorrow, hopefully (with more maps!)

[MaxQue]

There are a few borough specific teams in pre-merger towns, Lachine, LaSalle and Anjou. There doesn't seem to be one anymore in Outremont so one of the main parties could gain borough mayor (I think there is also an independent running).

Outremont borough council is a mess in any case (it figured many times in Infoman due its dysfunctionnal council, with never ending arguments and councillors walking out to not lose votes). Mayor being formely Conservons Outremont and councillors being 1 formely Conservons Outremont, 1 Independant (NOT Conservons Outremont), 1 Projet and 1 Équipe Denis Coderre probably doesn't help.

If we conpare changes on the maps (defection unless noted otherwise):
Borough mayors:
L'Île-Bizard--Sainte-Geneviève: Vrai Changement -> Projet
Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce: Coalition -> Denis Coderre
Mercier--Hochelaga-Maisonnaeuve: Coalition -> Denis Coderre
Sud-Ouest: Coalition -> Projet
Outrement: Conservons Outremont -> Independant

City council:
Étienne-Desmarteau (Rosemont--La-Petite-Patrie): Projet -> Denis Coderre
Vieux-Rosemont (Rosemont--La-Petite-Patrie): Projet -> Denis Coderre
Saint-Jacques (Ville-Marie): Projet -> Denis Coderre
Villeray (Villeray--Saint-Michel--Parc-Extension): Coalition ->Denis Coderre
Saint-Léonard East (Saint-Léonard): Coalition ->Denis Coderre
Sault-au-Récollet (Ahuntsic-Cartierville) -> Vrai Changement -> Denis Coderre
Lachine: Dauphin -> Denis Coderre

Borough councils:
L'Île-Bizard--Sainte-Geneviève
Jacques-Bizard: Vrai Changement -> Projet
Denis-Benjamin-Viger: Vrai Changement -> Prohet
Sainte-Genevière: Équipe Richard Bélanger -> Denis Coderre

Lachine:
Fort-Rolland: Dauphin -> Denis Coderre
Du Canal: Dauphin -> Projet

Anjou:
West: Équipe Anjou -> Independant
Center: Équipe Anjou -> Denis Coderre

Outremont:
Jeanne-Sauvé: Conservons Outremont -> Independent
Robert-Bourassa: Conservons Outremont -> Denis Coderre (through a by-election)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/11/2017-quebec-municipal-elections-today.html

[Poirot]

Here's my post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/11/2017-quebec-municipal-elections-today.html

A lot of work to keep up with changes in many cities.

In Quebec City there was a Léger poll.
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Rapport%20Municipales_27%20octobre%202017.pdf

Incumbent mayor Régis Labeaume had 51%, that is a drop from his previous election scores probably because of the new party Québec 21 headed by Jean-François Gosselin, more right wing party, has 22%. The more progessive Démocratie Québec of Anne Guérette has 14%.
Labeaume leads in the six boroughs. The best score for Guérette is in La Cité-Limoilou with 25%. Gosselin does best in the east and north (Beauport, Charlebourg, La Haute St-Charles where he reaches 30%.

For council vote 37% said they would vote for Equipe Labeaume, 20% for Québec 21, 11% for Démocratie Québec and 4% for an independent or other party.

One of the three councillors elected last election who were not in Equipe Labeaume is Yvon Bussières. He is running as an Independent in Montcalm-Saint-Sacrement district (La Cité-Limoilou). Labeaume is not running a candidate against him so he should be elected.
A second not in Equipe Labeaume is not running again in Sillery. The third is Anne Guérette who is running for mayor but her colistier is running in her district of Cap-aux-Diamants. What could complicate things for her is the man she narrowly beat to be mayoral candidate for Démocratie Québec has decided to run as an Independnet in Cap-aux-Diamants.

Démocratie Québec doest best for council vote in La Cité-Limoilou with 18%. Independents have 11% and Equipe Labeaume 33%. There are five districts so maybe it will be 1 Démocratie Québec, 1 Independent and 3 Equipe Labeaume.

Québec 21 is close to Equipe Labeaume but still behind by 5-6% in Beauport and Charlesbourg.  and 8% in Haute Saint-Charles. Sample is 150 in each so margin of error must be big. Gosselin's colistière is in the Saint-Thérèse-de-Lisieux district in Beauport. There is a radio personality running in Saint-Rodrigue (Charlesbourg) for Québec 21.

[VPH]

Ended up voting Coderre, Macklovitch, Loureiro, and Rankin (Coalition). Made some phone calls for EDC and will be at their watch party tonight!

[RogueBeaver]

Rad-Can results page.

[Poirot]

Reading Hatman's Longueuil description. The split in Action Longueuil party occured after a divisive race to be mayoral candidate. Sylvie Parent was number 2 at city hall and probably designated heir of retiring mayor Caroline St-Hilaire.

Sylvie Parent received 289 votes and Josée Latendresse 258. Councillors were split but Latendresse had more. The Latendresse camp did not rally, sat as Independent and the formed Longueuil Citoyen. I think Action Longueil only has 1 sitting councillor in Saint-Hubert after the split.

Option Longueuil is another party and the mayor candidate is a former NDP MP. It comes from Option Greenfield Park who was a borough specific party that has morphed into a city party. The councillor for Greenfield Park, Robert Myles, is from Option and running again. He was leader of the opposition since Action Longueuil had almost all the seats.        

[Poirot]

Interesting that a number of former NDP MPs are running for Mayor's position in the Montreal area:
Hoang Mai is running for Mayor of Brossard,
Sadia Groguhe is running for Mayor of Longueuil,
Jamie Nicholls is running for Mayor of Hudson

Hoang Mai probably doesn't have a chance. He is running alone and facing three parties running full slate of candidates in Brossard. I imagine people will vote for one of the parties. There is the current mayor, a former mayor and a councillor running for mayoral candidate.

In Hudosn there doesn't seem to be parties. There is a former NDP MP running in Laval-les Iles district, François Pilon. There are al least four parties, he is running with an opposition party.

[MaxQue]

In my case, didn't vote as my mayor and councillor were reelected without opposition (as did all incumbent). Will still follow the contests for the 3 open seats in my city, obviously.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wonder if the weather will hurt turnout? I know it's been pretty rainy out today, so I imagine the same is true in much of Western Quebec.

[RogueBeaver]

Plante leading by 3500 with ~10% of precincts reporting.