How Did Division I-A College Football Cities Vote in 2016?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #125 on: October 31, 2017, 12:34:14 AM »

SEC- EAST

Vanderbilt University:


Nashville, Tennessee:

138,931 HRC (60.9% D), 75,853 Trump (33.3% R)             + 27.6% D

Ok---- Nashville was initially tricky because of whole Joint City-Davidson County mayoral jurisdiction thing, which I'm not used to....

So I defaulted to what is now considered to be the standard municipal boundaries of the City of Nashville, that essentially includes the entire County, with the exception of six municipalities: (Ridgetop, Goodlettsville, Berry Hill, Belle Meade, Oak Hill, and Forest Hills)....

I backed out the the results from these places from the total County vote total, as well as the 6.5k absentee votes not coded by precinct, and the 1.3k Write-In votes coded to minor party write-in candidates....

If rural and Uninc parts of Davidson County want to be part of the City of Nashville, so be it, and good for them. since it gives them access to resources that would otherwise would not be available, and also helps support the tax base of the City....

Obviously Nashville is a heck of a lot more than just Vanderbilt, and overall the Metro area is now some 1.6 Million people, and the largest in the State, with about 600k residing within the municipal boundaries of Nashville....

Ok, how did Vanderbilt Student Precincts Vote?

Vanderbilt University Campus:

Precinct 18-01:

113 HRC (83.7% D)-----    12 Trump (8.9% R)     +74.8% D

Ok---- apparently the vast majority of students don't live in on campus dorms....

So where is the student off-campus housing?

Precinct 21-11: (90% 18-21 Yrs) roughly located with the River to North, Ed Temple Blvd to the East, Albion St to the South and 39th Ave N to the West:

1,254 HRC (97.1% D), 15 Trump (1.2%), Others (1.7%)                   + 95.9% D

Ok---- so these numbers were a bit astounding and we look at Census Tract Tract 013602 and see that it is 77% African-American and 17% White... compare that against the overall undergraduate admission and State enrollment numbers....

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#undergradstudentpopulation

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#enrollmentbystate


Precinct 21-4: (80% 18-19 yrs)   Located with Hinkle Drive to the East, West End Avenue to the South, I-40 to the West, and Charlotte Pike to the North.

Appears to be about 85%+ White:

932 HRC (62.1% D), 412 Trump (27.4% R)                              + 34,7% D

Precinct 21-3: located with I-40 W to the North , 18th- 20th Ave to the East, Charlotte Pike to the South, and I-40 to the West....

Appears to be about 62% White and 19% African-American....

892 HRC (89.0% HRC), 62 Trump (6.2% R)                             + 82.8% D


So what I suspect that we are seeing is that many of the White College students at Vanderbilt come from out of State, and out of region, and vote absentee in their home states (As I did as an undergrad a few decades back going to College in other State)....

Still it's pretty clear that White Students at Vanderbilt voted to the Left of the City as a whole, and significantly more Democratic than both the White population within the City, Tennessee, and Whites within the United States of America....

Overall students at Vanderbilt most likely voted more Democratic than in any other SEC-EAST campus, other than the University of Georgia, or possibly the University of Florida....





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NOVA Green
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« Reply #126 on: October 31, 2017, 02:23:40 AM »

American Athletic Conference- West

University of Memphis:

Memphis, Tennessee:

157,530 HRC (75.3% D), 44,639 (21.3% R)                               + 74.0% D

So, now we need to look at the "Student Precincts" around the University of Memphis....

These would include precincts 57, 46-2, 67-1, 67-3, 58-1, 68-3

Now the interesting thing about the East Memphis-Colonial-Yorkshire precincts here is that there is fairly old and White population within these Census tracts.... Only about 50% within core census tracts are 18-21 year students....

If we combine the overall numbers for the "core" campus precincts we see the following:

6,037 HRC (45.4% D), 6,474 Trump (48.6% R)                      + 3.2% R

Not familiar at all with the University of Memphis and to what extent it is a commuter school, but this University actually raises more questions than answers....

Maybe someone has more detailed information to contribute?
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« Reply #127 on: October 31, 2017, 10:08:26 AM »

SEC- EAST

Vanderbilt University:


Nashville, Tennessee:

138,931 HRC (60.9% D), 75,853 Trump (33.3% R)             + 27.6% D

Ok---- Nashville was initially tricky because of whole Joint City-Davidson County mayoral jurisdiction thing, which I'm not used to....

So I defaulted to what is now considered to be the standard municipal boundaries of the City of Nashville, that essentially includes the entire County, with the exception of six municipalities: (Ridgetop, Goodlettsville, Berry Hill, Belle Meade, Oak Hill, and Forest Hills)....

I backed out the the results from these places from the total County vote total, as well as the 6.5k absentee votes not coded by precinct, and the 1.3k Write-In votes coded to minor party write-in candidates....

If rural and Uninc parts of Davidson County want to be part of the City of Nashville, so be it, and good for them. since it gives them access to resources that would otherwise would not be available, and also helps support the tax base of the City....

Obviously Nashville is a heck of a lot more than just Vanderbilt, and overall the Metro area is now some 1.6 Million people, and the largest in the State, with about 600k residing within the municipal boundaries of Nashville....

Ok, how did Vanderbilt Student Precincts Vote?

Vanderbilt University Campus:

Precinct 18-01:

113 HRC (83.7% D)-----    12 Trump (8.9% R)     +74.8% D

Ok---- apparently the vast majority of students don't live in on campus dorms....

So where is the student off-campus housing?

Precinct 21-11: (90% 18-21 Yrs) roughly located with the River to North, Ed Temple Blvd to the East, Albion St to the South and 39th Ave N to the West:

1,254 HRC (97.1% D), 15 Trump (1.2%), Others (1.7%)                   + 95.9% D

Ok---- so these numbers were a bit astounding and we look at Census Tract Tract 013602 and see that it is 77% African-American and 17% White... compare that against the overall undergraduate admission and State enrollment numbers....

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#undergradstudentpopulation

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#enrollmentbystate


Precinct 21-4: (80% 18-19 yrs)   Located with Hinkle Drive to the East, West End Avenue to the South, I-40 to the West, and Charlotte Pike to the North.

Appears to be about 85%+ White:

932 HRC (62.1% D), 412 Trump (27.4% R)                              + 34,7% D

Precinct 21-3: located with I-40 W to the North , 18th- 20th Ave to the East, Charlotte Pike to the South, and I-40 to the West....

Appears to be about 62% White and 19% African-American....

892 HRC (89.0% HRC), 62 Trump (6.2% R)                             + 82.8% D


So what I suspect that we are seeing is that many of the White College students at Vanderbilt come from out of State, and out of region, and vote absentee in their home states (As I did as an undergrad a few decades back going to College in other State)....

Still it's pretty clear that White Students at Vanderbilt voted to the Left of the City as a whole, and significantly more Democratic than both the White population within the City, Tennessee, and Whites within the United States of America....

Overall students at Vanderbilt most likely voted more Democratic than in any other SEC-EAST campus, other than the University of Georgia, or possibly the University of Florida....







Actually, over 95% of Vandy students live on campus.  The only explanation for precinct 18-01 is that very few actually vote at their precinct address (it's worth noting that TN requires a TN ID or a US Passport (which legally also means that you can't drive on an out-of-state license).  Plus, there are a significant number of live-in faculty members on Vandy's campus that would likely vote in precinct 18-01 as well (it also includes some areas to the west of campus).

Vandy is also the exact sort of campus that someone like Rubio would have done significantly better than Trump.  I would guess that Vandy was probably about 55-30 Clinton with a strong third party vote this year.  But, Rubio might have won undergraduates.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #128 on: November 01, 2017, 11:35:02 PM »

PAC 12 South:

University of Arizona:

Tucson Arizona:

Tucson (Without Split Precincts)Sad

97,403 HRC (62.2% D), 47,376 Trump (30.3% R)                         + 31.9% D

Tucson (Only Split Precincts)Sad

28,567 HRC (54.8% D), 19,946 Trump (38.3% R)                         + 16.5% D

Total Tucson:  (including both precincts solely within City limits and split precincts that include a part of the City, as unincorporated areas outside)...

125,970 HRC (60.4% D), 67,322 (32.3% R)                              + 28.1% D


Now these numbers likely slightly overstate the Republican share of the total vote and understate the Democratic share, since many of these precincts contain relatively small slivers of Tucson and much larger chunks of suburban type housing outside of the City...

Still, it would only make a small difference on the margins regardless, and since we're not have a discussion about "Who won Tucson Arizona", I don't feel like going through the extensive effort involved to create precinct level modelling to figure out the "exact" estimated percentages....


What about the Student Precinct(s)?

Precinct # 62: University of Arizona Campus--- "Dorm Vote plus a bit of off-campus"

(Speedway Blvd to the North, N. Campbell Ave to the East, E Broadway Blvd to the South, N. Euclid Ave to the West):

896 HRC (74.2% D), 193 Trump (16.0% R)              + 58.2%   D

Precinct # 42: Located North of Speedway  "North University Neighborhood".... Combined 80% 18-29 population:

1,775 HRC (74.8% D), 385 Trump (16.2%)              + 58.6 % D

Precinct # 44: "West University Neighborhood"Sad

1,092 HRC (76.8% D), 204 Trump (14.3% R)           + 62.5 % D

So what's interesting here is that a heavily Anglo undergraduate student body voted so significantly to the "Left" of the City of Tucson, which after all in many ways is considered to be a Minority, but plurality South West Anglo City, which is after all over 40% Latino....

Considering that many of these student voters are home-state residents, who will likely stick around in Arinzona, not to mention California Expat college kids that will likely stay in the region to obtain knowledge sector jobs in a pretty dynamic and versatile statewide economy, these numbers don't look good for the future of Republican dominance in Arizona, that is increasingly dependent upon a fading generation of Southern California retirees as their key electoral base within the State.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #129 on: November 02, 2017, 01:33:06 AM »

SEC- EAST

Vanderbilt University:


Nashville, Tennessee:

138,931 HRC (60.9% D), 75,853 Trump (33.3% R)             + 27.6% D

Ok---- Nashville was initially tricky because of whole Joint City-Davidson County mayoral jurisdiction thing, which I'm not used to....

So I defaulted to what is now considered to be the standard municipal boundaries of the City of Nashville, that essentially includes the entire County, with the exception of six municipalities: (Ridgetop, Goodlettsville, Berry Hill, Belle Meade, Oak Hill, and Forest Hills)....

I backed out the the results from these places from the total County vote total, as well as the 6.5k absentee votes not coded by precinct, and the 1.3k Write-In votes coded to minor party write-in candidates....

If rural and Uninc parts of Davidson County want to be part of the City of Nashville, so be it, and good for them. since it gives them access to resources that would otherwise would not be available, and also helps support the tax base of the City....

Obviously Nashville is a heck of a lot more than just Vanderbilt, and overall the Metro area is now some 1.6 Million people, and the largest in the State, with about 600k residing within the municipal boundaries of Nashville....

Ok, how did Vanderbilt Student Precincts Vote?

Vanderbilt University Campus:

Precinct 18-01:

113 HRC (83.7% D)-----    12 Trump (8.9% R)     +74.8% D

Ok---- apparently the vast majority of students don't live in on campus dorms....

So where is the student off-campus housing?

Precinct 21-11: (90% 18-21 Yrs) roughly located with the River to North, Ed Temple Blvd to the East, Albion St to the South and 39th Ave N to the West:

1,254 HRC (97.1% D), 15 Trump (1.2%), Others (1.7%)                   + 95.9% D

Ok---- so these numbers were a bit astounding and we look at Census Tract Tract 013602 and see that it is 77% African-American and 17% White... compare that against the overall undergraduate admission and State enrollment numbers....

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#undergradstudentpopulation

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#enrollmentbystate


Precinct 21-4: (80% 18-19 yrs)   Located with Hinkle Drive to the East, West End Avenue to the South, I-40 to the West, and Charlotte Pike to the North.

Appears to be about 85%+ White:

932 HRC (62.1% D), 412 Trump (27.4% R)                              + 34,7% D

Precinct 21-3: located with I-40 W to the North , 18th- 20th Ave to the East, Charlotte Pike to the South, and I-40 to the West....

Appears to be about 62% White and 19% African-American....

892 HRC (89.0% HRC), 62 Trump (6.2% R)                             + 82.8% D


So what I suspect that we are seeing is that many of the White College students at Vanderbilt come from out of State, and out of region, and vote absentee in their home states (As I did as an undergrad a few decades back going to College in other State)....

Still it's pretty clear that White Students at Vanderbilt voted to the Left of the City as a whole, and significantly more Democratic than both the White population within the City, Tennessee, and Whites within the United States of America....

Overall students at Vanderbilt most likely voted more Democratic than in any other SEC-EAST campus, other than the University of Georgia, or possibly the University of Florida....







Actually, over 95% of Vandy students live on campus.  The only explanation for precinct 18-01 is that very few actually vote at their precinct address (it's worth noting that TN requires a TN ID or a US Passport (which legally also means that you can't drive on an out-of-state license).  Plus, there are a significant number of live-in faculty members on Vandy's campus that would likely vote in precinct 18-01 as well (it also includes some areas to the west of campus).

Vandy is also the exact sort of campus that someone like Rubio would have done significantly better than Trump.  I would guess that Vandy was probably about 55-30 Clinton with a strong third party vote this year.  But, Rubio might have won undergraduates.

Several items here---

1.) I have some serious questions about the statement regarding 95% of Vandy students living on-campus....

If that is the case, then why is precinct 21-11 about 90% 18-21???

Why is precinct 21-4 80% 18-29 years old?

Precinct 21-3 also appears to be a heavily Vandy University precinct as well...

2.) So the total student enrollment of Vanderbilt University in Nashville is 12.7k (2014 numbers)....

This would mean that ~ 12k students would be residing in "On Campus: housing" to meet the 95% criteria....

The numbers appear to show maybe 25-30% of the student population living within the Census tracts that are part of the "Dorm Vote"

So where is the gap?

Now, Vanderbilt appears to be split roughly 50-50 between a Undergrad and Grad Student population (Well befitting of an academic institution of this caliber)....

3.) So is precinct 21-11 predominately "townies" that work service level jobs at the University, despite an overwhelmingly African-American 18-29 Yr demographic within the Census tract?

4.) Why is precinct 21-4 that is 85% White and 80% younger voters 62 D- 27 R?

5.) I get the concept that potentially Grad students at Vanderbilt might vote more heavily Democratic than the overall Undergrad population, but at this point I haven't seen any evidence to show that this is the case....

6.) This is your neighborhood, so my apologies for asking logical questions based upon the precinct level data, and Census data that we have publicly available...

My goal with starting this thread was always intended as a subject of rigorous Political Science academic debate and discussion, since I have no real ax to grind nor hidden agenda in my endeavors to contribute to the overall Political Science "Body of Knowledge" when it comes to discussion and analysis where precinct level data is frequently overshadowed by a much lazier approach which is simply looking at County level swings, ignoring the communities that make up all of the counties of our Great Nation....

7.) Not sure if you have ever played Tennis much (joke), but actually really curious about your insights into Vanderbilt and Nashville...

Personally, you are one of my favorite posters from Tennessee on Atlas when it comes to election result related discussions regarding the Volunteer State, especially when it comes down to drilling into County/Municipal/Regional related items....

8.) OT--- Personally as a decades long fan of the "Outlaw Country" sound, would love to take a vacation for a week with my wife in Nashville and check out the City and the gigs, not to mention a side trip to the Waylon and Willie Museum.... Wink

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« Reply #130 on: November 03, 2017, 08:03:05 PM »

University of Alaska - Fairbanks isn't actually in Fairbanks (rather, it is in College, Alaska).

College, Alaska CDP (no postal vote)Sad
Trump - 1,539 (45.6%)
Clinton - 1,395 (41.3%)

Excellent work as always reagente when it comes to pulling up precinct level data by municipality!

So I think this not only should be considered "official results" for the Flagship University question the nclib brought up, but additionally potentially the results from the "Dorm Vote" combined with neighboring off-campus precincts that include a significant number of 18-29 year old population that are students and Grad Students of the University....

Either way, will up to the spreadsheet to consider this the official results from the municipality in which the University is located, and maybe a bit later try to add the data to a separate spreadsheet that I just started developing regarding votes in student precincts ("Dorm Votes" and "Off Campus Votes", which was always my intention when I first started this thread....

Obviously cities like LA, Houston, Atlanta, Memphis, etc are not the best representation of the University Vote within these large cities and communities, let alone more obscure places such as Boise, Salt Lake City, Lincoln, Buffalo, etc....

What I was thinking would be an interesting 3rd Wave of the project

Wave 1.) City results by I-A Division Teams

Wave 2.) Precinct Level results for the Dorm and Off-Campus University Districts

Wave 3.) Comparing and contrasting vote patterns and overall turnout levels in '08/'12/'16 to see if there were increases/decreases in total student vote, shifts between support for the two major political parties, as well as the segment of 3rd Party Votes in '16, which in many parts of the Country appears to be very high compared to any election over the past few decades....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #131 on: November 03, 2017, 08:34:38 PM »

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that

Well Annapolis is likely in need of a more detailed examination....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5864192#msg5864192

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5865137#msg5865137

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2155202#msg2155202

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156150#msg2156150

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156167#msg2156167

So, it appears that Annapolis is one of those Cities where it is difficult to dissect the actual vote within the City from the rest of the County because of sloppy election reporting....

EV tends to heavily favor Dems in Anne Arundel County, but without being about to crack the numbers down to individual precinct/municipal level we're shooting darts at the board blind....

I suspect that there might be a way to reverse engineer the numbers if we can determine the ED/EV vote down to a precinct level, and if not at least look at swings by precinct and RV vs actual voters to at least be able to recreate a "missing vote by precinct" math equation for modelling purposes....

I might be missing something, but isn't every precinct in Annapolis Democratic? Where's this Annapolis voted Republican coming from?

Apologies for the delayed response on this question.... upgraded my laptop last weekend and had files scattered everywhere, including my precinct file from Anne Arundel County...

So, I believe that the precinct numbers that I pulled were from the MD Secretary of State Election website, that excluded a major chunk of the population that voted absentee or early voters....

I suspect that the variance might potentially be from different data sets that you have pulled that show a final vote by precinct, including EVs and Absentees, versus the numbers that I pulled....

Now, do you have a list of precincts that fall solely and/or partially within the City of Annapolis in 2016?

It does seem counter-intuitive that Annapolis voted 'Pub in '16, when the overall County flipped, but still East Shore Maryland precincts in the County swung towards Trump, while Baltimore and DC upper-income Exurbs swung towards HRC....

It appears that Anne Arundel County has some historic issues over the past decade or so when it comes to transparent election reporting, so if you could shed more light on the subject, that would be much appreciated.... Smiley

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« Reply #132 on: November 04, 2017, 11:20:20 PM »

PAC 12 SOUTH:

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY:

TEMPE, ARIZONA:

37,240 HRC (57.6% D), 21,085 (32.6%)      + 25.0% D

How did the students vote???

We have a few precincts located on-campus, as well as quite a few off-campus with a high percentage of College students...

Precinct 312: "Hudson"Sad

1,275 HRC (67.0% D), 409 Trump (21.5% R)          + 45.5% D

Precinct 642: Tempe:


335 HRC (59.2% D), 181 Trump (32.0%)                +27.2% D

So what's happening in off-campus student ghetto precincts???

Precinct 323: Jentilly:

1,334 HRC (60.8% D), 619 TRUMP (28.2%)            + 32.6% D

Precinct 416: Mitchell Park:


1,086 HRC (72.8% D), 244 Trump (16.4% R)          + 56.4 % D

So even though we might have a few split precincts here and there in Tempe and Phoenix, Tempe not only went (58-33 D) in '16, but also additionally exceeded the numbers from Phoenix (53-39 D)

Trump appears to have has lost by even more significant margins among the heavily Anglo student population at ASU....

One must wonder to what extent the SoCal aging retirees in places like Mesa that vote in precincts named "Gene Autrey", "Longbow", "Old West", and "Tonto", will continue to be a significant segment of the Metro Phoenix electorate 10-15 years from now....

Mesa voted only (53-37 R)     + 16 % R in '16.... Not good numbers for the 'Pubs even there....
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« Reply #133 on: November 04, 2017, 11:47:13 PM »

Grand Forks, North Dakota:
Trump - 11,759 (50.6%)
Clinton - 9,007 (38.8%)

Precincts "Alerus 05" and "ICON Arena/Park District Office 04" were split between Grand Forks and what seems to be unincorporated Grand Forks County, but the vast majority of the population is in Grand Forks proper, so I've included it here.

Looks about like the numbers that I saw running the precinct data from Grand Forks a month back, and you've obviously spent a bit more time doing a comprehensive examination, so unless anyone else has better numbers, this should likely be considered the "official results" from Grand Forks, without going insane into division of votes from a split precinct....

Curious about Grand Forks results from '08/'12 since it looks like Trump numbers were pretty week here, regardless of Clinton bombing in '16....
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« Reply #134 on: November 05, 2017, 12:17:01 AM »

PAC 12- South Complete!!!!

Interestingly enough Tempe is the most Republican City in the PAC-12 South, not to even mention the PAC-12 North (Even though Trump only bagged 33% of the vote in Tempe....)



At some point I will try to add University Precincts to the list/map, since who knows what the hell is going on in student precincts in LA, compared to the overall City vote total....

In terms of PAC-12, pretty sure that UW precincts will vote to the Left of Seattle, U of O precincts likely Trump places 3rd, UC- Berkely precincts (Would not be surprised if Trump placed 4th or 5th), Stanford would not be surprised if Trump placed 3rd, Oregon State University--- combined 3rd Party Votes likely beat Trump for 3rd.... University of Colorado would not be surprised if Trump placed 3rd in Campus precincts....

So anyways--- been wanting to finalize PAC-12 numbers for awhile, and took be over 24 hours to run Maricopa Count numbers converting some 150,000 rows from a CSV format into Excel that included every election from County Dogcatcher, to random judges, which was a huge pain in the arse, even regarding the normal issues like trying to code precincts by municipality....

So of all of the Universities in the PAC-12 it appears that Arizona State University likely had the highest share of support for Trump among college students, unless we see results from UCLA and USC that show otherwise...
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« Reply #135 on: November 05, 2017, 01:21:05 AM »

So based on Reagente's contribution for Lexington, Kentucky, we appear to have a completed SEC-East result by municipality...

Looks like Lexington voted more Democratic than Knoxville, Tennessee....



Now my question for any Atlasian posters out there, is there a legit site to obtain Kentucky precinct level results???

I might have imagined that election results would be more transparent with Grimes as the head of the SoS department in Kentucky, but honestly this is one of the worst states in the Union when it comes to easily obtaining precinct level results....

This trend transcends partisan ideology, since we frequently have Republican States/Counties that do extremely detailed precise returns and Democratic States/Counties that do the same....

We can flip some coins, and see the situation reversed....

I believe that all American Citizens and Voters deserve 100% transparency regarding election data down to the precinct level that is free available and on demand that includes detailed mapping data....

This is obviously something that perhaps only the Federal Government can mandate and provide the financial resources to make available to State Governments to divide the resources to County level Governments as part of a Funnel-Up or Funnel-Down scenario....





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« Reply #136 on: November 05, 2017, 02:39:20 AM »

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that
snip

I might be missing something, but isn't every precinct in Annapolis Democratic? Where's this Annapolis voted Republican coming from?

Apologies for the delayed response on this question.... upgraded my laptop last weekend and had files scattered everywhere, including my precinct file from Anne Arundel County...

So, I believe that the precinct numbers that I pulled were from the MD Secretary of State Election website, that excluded a major chunk of the population that voted absentee or early voters....

I suspect that the variance might potentially be from different data sets that you have pulled that show a final vote by precinct, including EVs and Absentees, versus the numbers that I pulled....

Now, do you have a list of precincts that fall solely and/or partially within the City of Annapolis in 2016?

It does seem counter-intuitive that Annapolis voted 'Pub in '16, when the overall County flipped, but still East Shore Maryland precincts in the County swung towards Trump, while Baltimore and DC upper-income Exurbs swung towards HRC....

It appears that Anne Arundel County has some historic issues over the past decade or so when it comes to transparent election reporting, so if you could shed more light on the subject, that would be much appreciated.... Smiley



Unless my source map is off, the precincts in question are 6-1 through 6-8, and 6-11, through 6-18.

Annapolis (no early vote?)
Clinton - 6,644 (63.0%)
Trump - 3,017 (28.6%)

So although I am not doubting your data at all, we have the following as the official Anne Arundel precinct map from 2014... This actually adds further confusion to the discussion, but wanted to post regardless....



Now, we can pull up the official results for municipal (mayor elections in Annapolis back in '09):

https://www.annapolis.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1019

Next pull up the following links for elections precincts in Anne Arundel for Municipal Elections in Annapolis:

https://www.annapolis.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/7786

The precinct numbers apparently have not changed for the City between '09 and '17 ( Meaning the '16 precinct numbers should be current)...

My numbers have the following precincts located within the City of Annapolis:

01-001
01-011
02-002
02-012
03-003
03-013
04-004
04-014
05-005
05-015
06-006
06-016


So, regardless of the EV vs ED numbers issue, why are our precinct numbers located within Annapolis so different, since apparently voters in Annapolis are still voting in the same election precincts in 2017 as they did in 2009?

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« Reply #137 on: November 05, 2017, 07:38:31 PM »

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that
snip

I might be missing something, but isn't every precinct in Annapolis Democratic? Where's this Annapolis voted Republican coming from?

Apologies for the delayed response on this question.... upgraded my laptop last weekend and had files scattered everywhere, including my precinct file from Anne Arundel County...

So, I believe that the precinct numbers that I pulled were from the MD Secretary of State Election website, that excluded a major chunk of the population that voted absentee or early voters....

I suspect that the variance might potentially be from different data sets that you have pulled that show a final vote by precinct, including EVs and Absentees, versus the numbers that I pulled....

Now, do you have a list of precincts that fall solely and/or partially within the City of Annapolis in 2016?

It does seem counter-intuitive that Annapolis voted 'Pub in '16, when the overall County flipped, but still East Shore Maryland precincts in the County swung towards Trump, while Baltimore and DC upper-income Exurbs swung towards HRC....

It appears that Anne Arundel County has some historic issues over the past decade or so when it comes to transparent election reporting, so if you could shed more light on the subject, that would be much appreciated.... Smiley



Unless my source map is off, the precincts in question are 6-1 through 6-8, and 6-11, through 6-18.

Annapolis (no early vote?)
Clinton - 6,644 (63.0%)
Trump - 3,017 (28.6%)

So although I am not doubting your data at all, we have the following as the official Anne Arundel precinct map from 2014... This actually adds further confusion to the discussion, but wanted to post regardless....



Now, we can pull up the official results for municipal (mayor elections in Annapolis back in '09):

https://www.annapolis.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1019

Next pull up the following links for elections precincts in Anne Arundel for Municipal Elections in Annapolis:

https://www.annapolis.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/7786

The precinct numbers apparently have not changed for the City between '09 and '17 ( Meaning the '16 precinct numbers should be current)...

My numbers have the following precincts located within the City of Annapolis:

01-001
01-011
02-002
02-012
03-003
03-013
04-004
04-014
05-005
05-015
06-006
06-016


So, regardless of the EV vs ED numbers issue, why are our precinct numbers located within Annapolis so different, since apparently voters in Annapolis are still voting in the same election precincts in 2017 as they did in 2009?



I think the last three numbers for the precincts are identical, my map just has different numbers for the first two digits. My current theory is that they use different numbering for on and off election year precincts.

Whatever else, I'm certain that your precincts do not match the Annapolis 2016 results for the following reason:

All of Annapolis is in the 3rd Congressional District, yet not all of these precincts in 2016 voted for that congressional race:

01-001 - 3rd
01-011 - 2nd
02-002 - 4th
02-012 - 3rd
03-003 - 4th
03-013 - 4th
04-004 - 4th
04-014 - 4th
05-005 - 4th
05-015 - 4th
06-006 - 3rd
06-016 - 3rd

All of the precincts I listed, were, in the 2016 election, voting in the 3rd district.

Bolded the same conclusion that I was coming to this morning after further reflection....

My thought is that we take the precinct numbers from the '14 Precinct map, which I believe align with your precinct numbers, as the "official" numbers from Annapolis...

We still have the EV/ED issue to resolve, but at least I think we agree upon which precincts were used for the 2016 GE results.

We should be able to potentially model the EV/ED numbers if we can obtain total turnout numbers that include both numbers to estimate how many votes are outstanding from Annapolis....

BTW: I want to thank both you and PNM for calling this discrepancy out and to use a Poker term "keeping me honest" on the numbers here...

One of the main things that got me into Atlas 10 years ago was the quality of posters regarding detailed election data, combined with discussion and analysis....

I appreciate all of your contributions to the Forum, and will definitely go back and revise the numbers accordingly, although obviously we still need to drill down the EV/ED vote, especially considering the nature of active duty members of the USAF, which in this case is combined with a College/University student population....

Side note---- my foul up on the Annapolis numbers is a humbling lesson that recognizes both the strengths and potential weaknesses of transposing Municipal level election results in order to code precincts.... I should have caught the gap between the precinct map data and the Municipal Election precinct coding earlier, but defaulted to the municipal precinct numbers rather than the precinct map...

My sincere apologies since NOVA Green does not knowingly spread "fake news" (In this case inaccurate reporting of election returns), since the data is the data, the numbers are the numbers, regardless of how one chooses to interpret the data, election results are an objective fact....
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« Reply #138 on: November 06, 2017, 01:01:06 AM »

So, since I just ran the 2012 numbers for Tempe...

2012: 33,265 Obama (55.6% D), 24,589 Romney (41.1% R)      +14.5% D   59,868 TVs
2016: 37,240 HRC (57.6% D), 21,085 Trump (32.6% R)              +25.0% D   64,615 TVs


So mixture of significant swings from Romney '12 voters to HRC '16 voters, combined with massive defection to the Left on the part of 3rd Party candidates...
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« Reply #139 on: November 10, 2017, 11:00:22 PM »

So, since I just ran the 2012 numbers for Tempe...

2012: 33,265 Obama (55.6% D), 24,589 Romney (41.1% R)      +14.5% D   59,868 TVs
2016: 37,240 HRC (57.6% D), 21,085 Trump (32.6% R)              +25.0% D   64,615 TVs


So mixture of significant swings from Romney '12 voters to HRC '16 voters, combined with massive defection to the Left on the part of 3rd Party candidates...

So looking at the same three overwhelmingly ASU Undergrad precincts:

2012: 4,053 Total Votes (61.9% D- 33.0% R)           + 28.9% D
2016: 4,663 Total Votes (63.1% D- 25.9% R)           + 37.2% D      (+ 8.3% D Swing)

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« Reply #140 on: November 11, 2017, 02:21:52 PM »

SEC-East

University of Georgia:


Athens, Georgia....

29.603 HRC (65.1% D), 12,717 Trump (28.0% R)      + 37.1% D

Spent over 30 minutes mucking around with Athens and precinct results from Clarke County, only to discover that the City and County are now one political entity !!!???

Unless anyone can tell me otherwise, at this point I will assume the City results equal the County results....


Not quite but very close.

From Wiki:

Quote
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Athens has 98.9% of the population of Clarke County.
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« Reply #141 on: November 11, 2017, 08:41:49 PM »

SEC-East

University of Georgia:


Athens, Georgia....

29.603 HRC (65.1% D), 12,717 Trump (28.0% R)      + 37.1% D

Spent over 30 minutes mucking around with Athens and precinct results from Clarke County, only to discover that the City and County are now one political entity !!!???

Unless anyone can tell me otherwise, at this point I will assume the City results equal the County results....


Not quite but very close.

From Wiki:

Quote
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Athens has 98.9% of the population of Clarke County.

Good catch ncLib.... I'll need to back out a few precincts to make the numbers aligned with the "City/County" of Athens....   Smiley

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« Reply #142 on: November 11, 2017, 11:14:17 PM »

Big 12 Conference:

Baylor University:


Waco, Texas:

2016:

Waco without split precincts:

14,251 HRC (48.2% D), 13,319 Trump (45.1% R)              + 3.1% D

Waco split precincts only:

3,277 HRC (31.6% D), 6,450 Trump (62.2% R)                 +30.6% R

Total Waco including split precincts:

17,528 HRC (43.9% D), 19,769 Trump (49.5% R)             + 5.6% R

So how about these  eight split precincts?

Precincts 13, 16, 17, 51, 57, 60, 62, 83....

Precinct 13 had only 69 voters, so whatever....

Precinct 16 had 367 voters, but appears to be overwhelmingly located within the City of Robison.

Precinct 17 had 504 voters, of whom the vast majority appear to be within the City of Waco, with an unincorporated industrial zone appearing as a hole in the middle of the precinct...

Precinct 51 had 2,808 total Voters, which is most likely overwhelmingly located within the City of Waco.

Precinct 57 had 519 total Voters, and eyeballing it appears to be roughly 50% Waco and 50% Robison...

Precinct 60 had 2,863 total voters, and appears to be heavily concentrated in the City of Robison...

Precinct 62 had 2,874 total voters and is overwhelmingly concentrated in the City of Hewitt

Precinct 83 had 360 total Voters and includes one small sliver of Waco, but appears to be an overwhelmingly rural/Uninc precinct....

My thought is that we need to back out precincts 16,60, 62, and 83 since the vast majority of these voters reside outside of Waco City limits...

So now we see something like the following:

Waco 2016:

15,662 HRC (46.8% D), 15,559 Trump (46.5% R)             + 0.3% D


So, at this point I can't definitively state that HRC won Waco, considering that even in the split precincts excluded there were likely enough votes within the Waco sections of the precincts to eke out an extremely narrow Republican win....

Still, since I lived in Texas for awhile, and after all there are only 91 precincts in the County, figured I may as well take a look at the 2012 results by precinct for McLellan County...

Waco 2012:

Non-Split Precincts:

12,764 Obama (48.0% D), 13,500 Romney (50.7% R)         + 2.7% R   ( +5.8% D Swing '12>'16)

Split Precincts (Minus 16, 60,62, 83)

1,236 Obama (33.5% D), 2,070 (56.1% R) Romney               + 22.6% R (+ 1.4% D Swing '12>'16)

TOTAL WACO:

14,000 Obama (46.2% D), 15,570 (51.4% R) Romney     + 5.2% R
   (+5.5% D Swing '12>'16)

So what happened in the University Precincts around Baylor???

Precinct #3 (Baylor University Dorms and a few surrounding Undergrad 'hoods)

2012: 496 Obama (42.6% D), 631 Romney (54.2% R)           + 11.6% R
2016: 681 HRC (51.7% D), 421 Trump (32.0% R)                  +19.7% D  (+ 31.3% D Swing)

WOW!!! Honestly this was a bit unexpected, since although I figured Baylor went 'Pub in '12, was not expecting to see such dramatic swings in only four years...

Lets now look at a few "off-campus" precincts with an extremely high percentage of Undergrads...

Precincts 18, 20. and 21 contain an extremely high percentage of Undergrad Students (Although there are a few precincts that could be included as well...

2016: 473 HRC (56.7% D), 259 (31.1% R) Trump                       + 25.6% D
2012: 321 Obama (50.2% D), 299 (46.8% R) Romney                 + 3.4% D   (+22.2% D Swing)


Since I took a bit of time working on Waco Election results....

Overwhelmingly African-American precincts (Precinct 12 & 14)

2016: 2,235 Total Votes

2,028 HRC (91.1% D), 154 Trump  (6.9% R)           + 84.2% D

2012: 2,521 Total Votes

2,412 Obama (95.7% D), 105 (4.2% R) Romney      +91.5% D   (+7.3% R Swing)

So it appears that there was significantly decrease in voter turnout among African Americans in Waco, that likely allowed Waco to remain Republican in '16, albeit narrowly....

What about heavily Latino precincts in Waco that represent about 30% of the City population?

This gets a bit trickier since the Latino population in Waco isn't as heavily concentrated geographically as the African-American population...

Still the following precincts appear to overlap with Census tracts that are roughly 80% plus Latino...

There are likely a few others not on the list below, but at least it gives us enough of a baseline to see how the "Latino Surge" played in Waco, Texas....

(1,2,4,5, 6, 25)

2016: 1,844 Total Votes: 1,216 HRC (65.9% D) , 515  Trump  (27.9% R)       + 38.0% D
2012: 1,621 Total Votes: 1,109 Obama (68.4% D) , 499 Romney (30.8% R)   +37.6% D  (+0.4% D Swing)

So, these are heavily working class Mexican-American precincts that tend to vote much more heavily than Middle-Class and Upper Middle-Class Latinos in Texas, but it doesn't appear that this moved the dial very much in Waco....

Now how about those upper-income College educated White voters???

Well we only have a few of these floating around in the City of Waco, but they tend to be most heavily concentrated around the edges of Lake Waco (Which like most lakes in Texas was built during the Great Depression as part of both an employment related gig, while at the same time creating water storage areas to support growing populations in Metro areas of Texas)

Precinct # 33 perhaps is most representative of this community within Waco.... Located on the Western edge of Lake Waco, the MHI of $ 72.5k/Yr makes it one of the wealthiest precincts in terms of household income located fully within City limits....

It's also 86% Anglo, with 39% having a College Plus Degree, with 15.7% of the workforce having Management listed occupations....

2016: 1,074 Total Votes

347 HRC (32.3% D), 660 Trump (61.5% R)      + 29.2% R

2012: 1,088 Total Votes

310 Obama (28.5% D) , 763 (70.1% R) Romney   + 41.6% R    (+12.4% D Swing)

So there are a few other such precincts in Waco where we see similar results for example (Precinct 52--- 72-27 Romney shifted to 63-32 Trump)

So in Waco we have perhaps one of the most dramatic swings among student voting populations of any Division I-A football City covered thus far....

Any fellow residents or scholars  from Texas out there that can explain why Baylor University precincts swung so dramatically between '12 and '16?Huh













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« Reply #143 on: November 12, 2017, 08:53:08 PM »

Since Alabama is getting so much attention these days, and I still have a few Football Universities to work through down there, decided it would be appropriate to check up on the numbers for the 3rd largest City in the State, Mobile--- Alabama.

Sun Belt Conference:

University of South Alabama:

Mobile, Alabama:

2016 Mobile without Split Precincts:

41,208 HRC (57.8% D), 28,111 Trump (39.4% R)                         + 18.4% D

2016 Mobile Split Precincts:

4,899 HRC (43.1% D), 6,174 Trump (54.3% R)                             + 11.2% R

Mobile TOTAL:

46,107 HRC (55.8% D), 34,285 Trump (41.5% R)                         + 14.3% D

These numbers probably overstate Republican Pres performance in Mobile in '16, since the split precincts tend to more located in unincorporated areas than within the City proper....

Additionally we have some 5,625 absentee ballots not broken down by precinct that went 45.7% D- 51.8% R....   Although we don't have an easy mechanism to determine where exactly these votes came from, it is most likely the bulk of these Democratic votes came from Mobile or areas just North of the City such as Prichard and Chickasaw...

Overall Republican strength in the County appears to mainly come from small town and rural areas in the Northern and Southern parts of the County, Cities like Saraland, Satsuma, and Semmes, as well as exurban heavily White Republican precincts West of the City out by areas West of Cody/ Stolle Road floating along Airport Blvd, Jeff Hamilton Blvd, Dawes, Old Pascagoula Rd, etc....

What about the University of South Alabama Precincts?

Precinct 38: Located mainly on the University Campus

1905 Total Votes:

1,320 HRC (69.3% D), 544 Trump (28.6% R)                 + 40.7% D

Precinct 37: Located directly West of Campus with a high percentage of 18/19 as well as those in their '20s.

1,414 Total Votes:

1,201 HRC (84.9% D), 194 Trump (13.7% R)                + 71.2% D

The campus precinct appears to be heavily White, and the "off-campus" precinct appears to be majority African-American.... either way it looks like University of South Alabama students tend to be heavily Democratic, even White Undergrads living on-campus....

Now, I would be remiss not to pull up a few more places in Mobile where there are significant academic institutions....

Spring Hill College: A Private Catholic Jesuit school, the first Catholic College in the South, and fifth oldest Catholic College in the United States....

There is a whole fascinating backstory here when it comes to the Civil Rights movement era where students chased the KKK off-campus that attempted to storm the campus back in January 21st and 22nd 1957, because it was a Co-Ed institution that in '54 accepted African-American students into all Departments, a few years before the Brown vs Board of Education Supreme Court ruling...

Also, for any JFK conspiracy theorists out there, Lee Harvey Oswald spoke at the College only a dew months before the Kennedy Assassination....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_Hill_College

Precinct 40: 1,792 Total Votes:


375 HRC (20.9% D), 1,354 Trump (75.6% R)             + 54.7% R

Wow--- what a difference 59 years make....

Also, I tried to pull up precinct numbers for the Bishop State Community College, but because on top of being more of a "commuter college", it also has something like four different campuses within the Mobile area, so there isn't really a concentration of College students around any one location....

For what it's worth, Precinct # 27 is located at the Bishop State Community College campus, a few blocks off of MLK and Broad Street, but honestly I'm not sure that this precinct really contains a ton of Millennial College Students because of its location....

Precinct #27:

1,169 Total Votes: 1,041 HRC (89.1% D), 107 Trump (9.2% R)                 + 79.9% D

Although it wouldn't surprise me at all if Community College Students in Mobile tend to be much more Working and Middle-Class and representative of the City at large, in a City that is 51% Black and 44% White, where household income levels tend to be a bit higher, that we would see Community College students vote more heavily Democratic than Public University students...

Even some 20 years back when I was student age, that was always one of the tricks if you were from working and lower-middle class economic abilities, to cut down on your parent's college student loan debt (As well as your own) to try to get as many 100 and 200 level Undergrad classes at the Community College, before you transfer your credits to the State University, where the cost of tuition goes through the roof...

So when looking at Precinct #37, which is a fairly heavily African-American University of South Alabama precinct with a huge % of College Age students (18-29), it might well explain some of the variance between the "Dorm Vote" vs the "Off-Campus Vote", since it frequently takes a few years longer to bank enough Community College Credits, while working at the same time to cover one's college costs, before you move closer to the University, which is more expensive in terms of both housing costs and tuition, and additionally off-campus housing is likely not only preferred, but also potentially required for Junior and Senior College students....





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« Reply #144 on: November 14, 2017, 01:50:51 AM »

As for Baylor, I think that may be a case of a low vote total for a private university clouding the results a bit.  Faculty, while likely more conservative at Baylor than other private universities, may live on campus at surprisingly high rates.  Especially if it includes a bit of off-campus, grad students may be a significant component too.

I have actually been thinking about why the University of Alabama looks more in line with what I would think possible than most other campuses.  Simply, undergraduate students are significantly more likely to vote on campus at Alabama because of a group known as 'The Machine' that tries to control local politics for the interests of the student body.  That probably makes the on-campus vote somewhat more representative of the undergrad population and, therefore, likely more Republican (using things like the breakdown of college-educated millennials in 2012, 2016 young voter exit polling (closer than 2012), and campus mock elections that differ wildly from the precincts (especially at LSU) as reasons for that hypothesis.

I would need more time to look at this theory, but I also wonder if, at most campuses, undergraduates who vote on campus lean somewhat more Democratic than those who do not.  At least at my campus, the College Dems are the only group that I have ever seen push for on-campus registration, and it is possible that Democrats might be more interested in the local races of Democratic-leaning college towns or big cities, while Republicans may be more interested in races in the more Republican-leaning areas of back home.

As for South Alabama, those numbers seem quite odd, especially relative to the other campus areas in Alabama.  Those numbers are so far Democratic that Hillary would even be having to win the white vote there to get those numbers, which I can't fathom at all (I would not expect South Alabama students to be demographically different from Alabama, Auburn, or Troy- if anything, they might be more in-state than Alabama or Auburn).

The DDHQ numbers for South Alabama (everything within one mile of campus) are:
Trump- 56.8%
Clinton- 39.8%

Obviously, that would include grad students and professors too (but they are more of the academic nature and every data shows that people with post-grad degrees are significantly more liberal than people with undergrad degrees, not to mention college professors).  I think, with that, it is safe to say that Trump won South Alabama undergrads.  Sometimes campus precincts tell a very misleading tale (I read somewhere that Trump apparently won Pitt's campus precinct, which I highly doubt was true), but I still do think this project is fun.
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« Reply #145 on: November 18, 2017, 10:14:01 PM »

Conf USA- West-

University of Alabama- Birmingham:

Birmingham, Alabama:

74,271 HRC (84.3% D), 10,875 Trump (12.4% R)                        + 59.9% D

Now, I wasn't able to locate the precinct for the U of A- Birmingham because Jefferson County is seriously lacking when it comes to accessibility of precinct maps...

Now, looking at other municipalities within the County, since 'Bama elections are recently attracting major attention

Bessemer is heavily Democratic, but with room for Democratic growth (Same as Homewood)....

Vestavia Hills, Mountain Brook (Both Republican White Birmingham 'Burbs) are the types of places where Jones needs to flip hard in December, along with significantly improving Dem '16 margins in Trussville, in order to maximize Dem margins out of Jefferson County.... If Jones can improve massively off of HRC '16 numbers in these locations, he will likely be doing extremely well in the Birmingham 'Burbs of Shelby and St Clair County as well....
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« Reply #146 on: November 19, 2017, 02:04:41 AM »

Sun Belt Conference:

Texas State University:

San Marcos, Texas:

10,902 (57.5% D), 6,371 (33.6% R)        + 23.9% D


University precincts are a bit trickier to spot, but precincts 334 & 413 appear to be overwhelmingly student precincts....

1,210 (66.9% D), 482 (26.6% R)             +  40.3% D

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« Reply #147 on: November 19, 2017, 06:03:38 PM »

Sun Belt Conference:

Coastal Carolina University:

Conway, South Carolina

Located in the heavily Republican Coastal retiree Horry County, the county suffers from all of the same limitations that places elsewhere do in South Carolina when it comes to looking at precinct level results by municipality...

A significant number of split precincts not aligned with municipal boundaries, absentee/ early votes not broken down by precinct etc (15% of the County Vote)....

Still, if we pull the numbers by Election Day votes for Conway including split-precincts we see something like the following:

3,535 HRC (37.5% D), 5,541 Trump (58.8% R)     + 21.3% R

Actual ED City votes are probably less Republican than that, considering the split precincts all went something like 70-26 R, inflating the overall Conway vote total.

We don't really have a way of breaking down the 19k Early and Absentee ballots for the County by location, although overall they did go significantly less Republican than the County as a whole, so most likely this was also the case for the City of Conway...

If we look at the precinct where Coastal Carolina University is located, we see the following ED numbers...

311 HRC (38.7% D), 437 Trump (54.4%)               + 15.7% R

So unless a large number of students living on campus voted early/absentee and voted Democratic by significant numbers, it appears that Coastal Carolina is one of the few University precincts that Trump won of any of the Colleges/Universities on this list.

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« Reply #148 on: November 21, 2017, 01:39:50 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2017, 02:26:32 AM by NOVA Green »

Ok--- decided to start going back to take a break before delving into a few of the more complicated cities remaining, and start backfilling some of the precinct level data for "Dorm Vote" (Precincts located overwhelmingly on Campus, that are generally disproportionately younger Millennials (18-19), since frequently many Universities have a penalty for "off-campus" housing during the Freshman and Sophomore Years, "Off-Campus" that generally is heavily Undergrad in many cases but frequently blended a bit with Grad Students, and occasionally tenured Professors and Senior Administrators, that typically prefer not to live too close to the "Student Ghettos" because of the noise distractions and all that....

PAC 12- North:

University of Washington:

Seattle, Washington:

1.) Dorm Vote: (90+% 18-19 population)

1,158 HRC (84.1% D), 92 Trump (6.7% R), 3rd Party/ Write-In (9.2%)     + 77.4% D > R

2.) "Off-Campus Undergrad Vote": (heavily 18-19)

1,972 HRC (81.9% D), 175 Trump (7.3% R), 3rd Party/Write-In (10.8%)   + 74.6% D>R

3.) "U-District": Neighborhood of Seattle other than precincts includes in # 1 and #2, that are still heavily Undergrad Precincts, but also include some Grad Students and a few professors, administrators, etc....

1,907 HRC (82.3% D), 250 Trump (10.8% R), 3rd Party/Write In (6.9%)     +  71.5% D>R

4.) Total "U-District Vote"

5,037 HRC (82.6% D), 517 Trump (8.5% R), 3rd Party/Write-In (8.9%)       + 74.1% D> R


So here it appears that the undergrads (Younger Millennials) voted more Democratic than older Millennials....

Now, obviously on surface these voting numbers appear abysmal to see only 6,100 votes cast in a neighborhood of 27.8k, however one must remember that obviously international students do not vote in American elections, many out of state undergrads vote via absentee ballot in other states, and in their home counties within Washington State, but still this is the only real raw data point we have with student populations....

Edit: I should note that Trump did not clear above 30% in a single precinct in Seattle....

His to best precincts were a few wealthy precincts around Broadmoor, and a sliver along Lake Washington, another further South along Lake Washington, another around the Hamilton Viewpoint Park on the tip of Puget Sound and Elliot Bay...

These are places that used to vote heavily Republican, back when there were "normal Republicans" (West Coast Style)....

Meanwhile out of the 962 precinct located within the City of Seattle, we have 205 precincts where Trump captured less than 5% of the total vote, and an additional 426 precincts where he captured less than 10% of the Vote....

Although the "Dorm Vote" and "Off-Campus Undergrad Vote", voted to the "Left" of the City overall it's actually not that apparent that the "U-District" did as a whole, where he did manage to capture 8.5% of the vote in the neighborhood versus only 8.4% in the City at large....




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NOVA Green
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« Reply #149 on: November 21, 2017, 03:44:03 AM »

PAC-12- North:

Oregon State University:

This is slightly tricky, since unfortunately since Oregon went Vote by Mail (VbM) we have seen a significant decrease in total number of precincts for most municipalities, that unfortunately decreases granularity (Yes I do have comprehensive precinct results for Benton County from '84 to '16 that I will post when I update the County on the Oregon Thread).

Additionally, approximately 40% of the population of Corvallis are students at Oregon State, and in a smaller town of some 60k, means that they are much more widely dispersed than in many other College/University Communities....

Still, we can consider Precinct #4 to be the "Dorm Vote", (Overwhelmingly 18-21 Yrs) that includes not only the Campus Proper, but also many high density off-campus Undergrad housing in close proximity to Campus...

1,772 HRC (70.7% D), 419 Trump (16.7% R), 3rd Party/Write-In (12.6%)      +54.0% D >R

Precinct # 5 is certainly an Undergrad "Off-Campus Vote", that includes not only traditional "Greek Row" but also high density Undergrad shared housing:

1,781 HRC (74.4% D), 291 Trump (12.2%), 3rd Party/Write-In (13.4%)        + 62.2% D > R

Trump places 3rd under 3rd Party Candidates....

Precinct #2 that includes areas East of the University could well be considered be a significant University Precinct, especially with the increased gentrification coming with the shortage of on-campus housing, but still it is a pretty diverse precinct that includes a significant proportion of individuals in "Downtown Corvallis" that are Seniors, individuals with disabilities, and low-income housing, combined with relatively Wealthy Middle-Aged White Liberals in Professional Occupations, as well as "Yuppie" voters living in some of the new recent luxury developments along the Riverfront....

1,737 HRC (71.3% D), 326 Trump (13.4% R), 3rd Party/ Write-In (15.3%)      + 57.9% D > R

Maybe I am misreading some of the major demographic shifts, and housing development projects within this precinct over the past ten years, but this has never historically been a major "student precinct", although the Western half of the Precinct is now overwhelmingly Undergrad.

Precinct #7 obviously deserves an honorable Mention, up the Hill towards Witham Hill Oaks and Witham Hill Village (Some of the larger Apartment complexes in Corvallis), but yet there is still a bunch more Townie than Gownie compared to many other parts of the City when looking at the 18-29 population....

2,963 HRC (76.1% D), 516 Trump (13.3% R), 3rd Party/Write-In (10.6%)       + 62.8% D > R

So although there has always been an Undergrad population in these apartments, actually this would tend to be a bit more "Grad Student Country" in the apartments, and "Professor Country in some of the nice homes built up on the Hills in the '70s when the University was starting to expand...

So the "Dorm vote" appears to have voted slightly to the Left of the City, but the "Grad Student/Professor Vote" to the Left of the "Dorm Vote"....

Still, missing granularity, but a data point nonetheless.....
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