The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Sanders just had the distinction of being the only Democrat to vote no on the Defense-Labor-HHS appropriations Minibus.

Sanders isn't a Democrat. He caucuses with the Democrats. There is a difference.

There is no point in differentiating in this context.

[MT Treasurer]

If Bullock runs, he’ll probably drop out after SC and then run for Senate. Republicans should hope that the presidential run damages him enough to move what would be a Tilt/Lean D race on paper to Tossup or maybe Tilt R.

[Mr. Smith]

Elizabeth Warren appeared on the news today and stated in regards to the Mollie Tibbets murder that Americans need to be more focused on "real issues."

She's right though. Do you really think people are going to remember that in 2020? They'll probably try and convict the guy next year before anybody votes.

Did she have to sound so cold-hearted and technocratic, though?  I mean, really.  What is it with people from Massachusetts and their inability to project empathy?

Warren with this.  Romney with the "47%" and the "I like to fire people!" comments.  Dukakis with his robotic answer on his wife's rapist and murderer getting the death penalty.

The Kennedy's good sir. The Kennedy's.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Bullock runs, he’ll probably drop out after SC and then run for Senate. Republicans should hope that the presidential run damages him enough to move what would be a Tilt/Lean D race on paper to Tossup or maybe Tilt R.

i don't think Bullock is going to run in the first place.

He's going to do a Senate bid and a Senate bid only...and that's a tossup at best, given the margin Trump probably will win Montana by.

[McGovernForPrez]

If Bullock runs, he’ll probably drop out after SC and then run for Senate. Republicans should hope that the presidential run damages him enough to move what would be a Tilt/Lean D race on paper to Tossup or maybe Tilt R.

i don't think Bullock is going to run in the first place.

He's going to do a Senate bid and a Senate bid only...and that's a tossup at best, given the margin Trump probably will win Montana by.

What about Bullock's actions lately make you think he's gonna run for Senate and not President? He's been moving further to the left on guns, campaigning in Iowa, and has even bought thousands of fake twitter followers. Bullock has been an executive for his entire political career and probably has no interest in being one of many legislators vying for influence in Washington. Bullock is one of the mostly likely people to run at this point.

[henster]

Bullock moved past the point of no return when he changed his position on gun control he can't just jump back into MT-SEN after having moved left on a dozen different issues.

[President Johnson]

Bullock moved past the point of no return when he changed his position on gun control he can't just jump back into MT-SEN after having moved left on a dozen different issues.

Yeah, maybe Schweizer should run for senate and Mike Cooney for governor to succeed Bullock. Both are decent candidates.

[NewYorkExpress]

Bullock moved past the point of no return when he changed his position on gun control he can't just jump back into MT-SEN after having moved left on a dozen different issues.

Sure he can.

Jon Tester is more progressive than your average Montana Democrat...so if Bullock's positions are anywhere near Tester's, he can win a Montana Senate race...at least against Daines.

I won't speak to reelection in 2026.

[Mr. Morden]

Merkley will speak at the Polk County Steak Fry in Iowa on Sept. 29th:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/28/iowa-polk-county-steak-fry-delaney-merkley-jayapal-mastromonaco-hubbell-2018-caucus-2020-president/975288002/

[Mr. Morden]

Castro:

http://www.wlrn.org/post/former-hud-secretary-juli-n-castro-campaigns-andrew-gillum-across-south-florida

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That’s got to be a typo.  “The primaries in November”?  Presumably that should say midterms rather than primaries.

Landrieu named a visiting fellow at Harvard:

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1034167642104451073

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti says he’s got a bunch of (currently anonymous) Hollywood support for a potential run:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-avenatti-thinks-hollywood-would-back-him-president-2020-1137345

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He also says he has no decision timeline:

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[Mr. Morden]

Inslee:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/gov-inslees-out-of-state-political-trips-trump-criticism-raise-his-national-profile/

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[Mr. Morden]

Catanese has a new story about the Sanders-Warren dynamic, detailing how Sanders feared that a potential Warren run in 2016 might box him out, and talking about how they might coordinate on who is going to run this time around:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/warren-sanders-trump-2020/568462/

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[eric82oslo]

I disagree completely. I believe that if both of them run and on more or less the same message, it would make that message so much stronger in the debates and the primaries and would attract even more independents and even some Trump voters/Republicans into the Democratic fold by really stirring up their imagination of what could become. Of course there's room for more than one economic populist in the vast Democratic field that will materialize next year, that could reach numbers up to 20 or even 30. If there are 2 populists out of 20 candidates running, that is still just 10% of the field - hardly anything at all!

[Harlow]

I was certain that Elizabeth Warren highlighting her belief in compassionate capitalism recently was an attempt to delineate herself from Sanders. It still may be.

[Former Kentuckian]

I was certain that Elizabeth Warren highlighting her belief in compassionate capitalism recently was an attempt to delineate herself from Sanders. It still may be.

I agree. It read like a campaign message blueprint to me, and one that would attract Sanders fans but still allow her to distinguish herself.

[Mr. Morden]

I was certain that Elizabeth Warren highlighting her belief in compassionate capitalism recently was an attempt to delineate herself from Sanders. It still may be.

I agree. It read like a campaign message blueprint to me, and one that would attract Sanders fans but still allow her to distinguish herself.

Remember, that was something that she was saying in private that was apparently leaked.  I think the intended audience was Democratic Party elites.  My reading is that she wants to make clear to party elites that she's not Sanders redux, since many of them are not so keen on Sanders.  This is something that makes sense for her to communicate to them if she runs, regardless of whether Sanders himself is also in the race or not.

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/28/politics/tim-ryan-democratic-leadership-or-president/index.html

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Seems like doing running for both and losing is reasonably likely: He runs for Speaker in November and loses, but attempts to use his failed bid for the Speakership to raise his profile, which he then uses in his presidential campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti is launching his own federal PAC:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/michael-avenattis-2020-pac

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[Sir Mohamed]

Avenatti is launching his own federal PAC:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/michael-avenattis-2020-pac

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LOL, he will drop out before IA or soon after, after getting 1%.

[96FJV]

I figured either Warren or Sanders would get in the race (not both). Bernie would be the stronger choice in my opinion. Also,  Julian Castro and Porn Lawyer really don't seem to get that literally no one cares about their potential bids.

[McGovernForPrez]

Avenatti is launching his own federal PAC:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/michael-avenattis-2020-pac

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LOL, he will drop out before IA or soon after, after getting 1%.

I'm actually a little worried. He already has high name recognition and knows how to fire up the base. My dad eats everything he says up and seems very open to his presidential ambitions.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo said in his primary debate that he'll serve another full term as governor, which (if taken at face value) would appear to preclude a presidential run in 2020:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-pol-cuomo-trump-president-debate-20180829-story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Pro-Patrick PAC being formed by his allies:

https://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/08/deval_patrick_launches_reason.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Garcetti headed to South Carolina in a few weeks:

https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/Mulling-2020-run-LA-mayor-to-visit-South-13190962.php

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