The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper is apparently visiting Iowa on April 3rd:

https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-announces-2018-future-ready-iowa-summit-registration-to-open-this-week

….and “holding meetings with veteran political players” about a presidential run:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_31728789/behind-scenes-colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-inches-toward

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On first reading, I missed one of the weirdest angles in this story....that Michael Bennet and Ken Salazar might also be considering presidential runs(!):

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[tosk]

Hickenlooper is apparently visiting Iowa on April 3rd:

https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-announces-2018-future-ready-iowa-summit-registration-to-open-this-week

….and “holding meetings with veteran political players” about a presidential run:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_31728789/behind-scenes-colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-inches-toward

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On first reading, I missed one of the weirdest angles in this story....that Michael Bennet and Ken Salazar might also be considering presidential runs(!):

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damn! I didn't think John would really look at running, he'd be a damn good candidate.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris was in Nevada over the weekend, for the Nevada Democratic Party’s “Local Brews + National Views” series:

https://www.dallasweekly.com/news/national/article_dc280500-25d2-11e8-9954-d3086e5d0fbd.html

Apparently, Merkley will be doing the same thing this coming Friday:

https://www.dallasweekly.com/news/national/article_dc280500-25d2-11e8-9954-d3086e5d0fbd.html

Anyway, while Harris was there, her husband was asked about his wife’s 2020 plans:

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[NewYorkExpress]

Hickenlooper is apparently visiting Iowa on April 3rd:

https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-announces-2018-future-ready-iowa-summit-registration-to-open-this-week

….and “holding meetings with veteran political players” about a presidential run:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_31728789/behind-scenes-colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-inches-toward

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On first reading, I missed one of the weirdest angles in this story....that Michael Bennet and Ken Salazar might also be considering presidential runs(!):

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The Democratic Primary is going to have at least 30 serious candidates isn't it?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Hickenlooper is apparently visiting Iowa on April 3rd:

https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-announces-2018-future-ready-iowa-summit-registration-to-open-this-week

….and “holding meetings with veteran political players” about a presidential run:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_31728789/behind-scenes-colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-inches-toward

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On first reading, I missed one of the weirdest angles in this story....that Michael Bennet and Ken Salazar might also be considering presidential runs(!):

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The Democratic Primary is going to have at least 30 serious candidates isn't it?

As the 2016 GOP primary taught us - when everyone's serious, no one is.

[TheSaint250]

While I doubt he'll take the plunge, David Jolly wrote on Twitter that Pennsylvania shows he that he shouldn't run for office again this year and that he wants to be "a part of that primary" that he wants against Trump in 2020.

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/973744450727006208

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

While I doubt he'll take the plunge, David Jolly wrote on Twitter that Pennsylvania shows he that he shouldn't run for office again this year and that he wants to be "a part of that primary" that he wants against Trump in 2020.

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/973744450727006208

He could just be like, FL chair for Kasich or something.

[Mr. Morden]

While I doubt he'll take the plunge, David Jolly wrote on Twitter that Pennsylvania shows he that he shouldn't run for office again this year and that he wants to be "a part of that primary" that he wants against Trump in 2020.

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/973744450727006208

He could just be like, FL chair for Kasich or something.

Kasich might end up chickening out though, or else he might opt to run 3rd party and skip the GOP primaries.  I continue to think that some folks are underrating the probability that all of those most commonly floated names like Kasich, Flake, Sasse, Cuban, etc., decide not to run in the GOP primaries, but that some seemingly random former Republican governor or member of Congress fills the void by jumping into the race and challenging Trump for the nomination.  Maybe that'll be Jolly, I don't know.

[NewYorkExpress]

While I doubt he'll take the plunge, David Jolly wrote on Twitter that Pennsylvania shows he that he shouldn't run for office again this year and that he wants to be "a part of that primary" that he wants against Trump in 2020.

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/973744450727006208

He could just be like, FL chair for Kasich or something.

Kasich might end up chickening out though, or else he might opt to run 3rd party and skip the GOP primaries.  I continue to think that some folks are underrating the probability that all of those most commonly floated names like Kasich, Flake, Sasse, Cuban, etc., decide not to run in the GOP primaries, but that some seemingly random former Republican governor or member of Congress fills the void by jumping into the race and challenging Trump for the nomination.  Maybe that'll be Jolly, I don't know.

Maybe it'll be Jeb!

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

A former Governor or Congressman will challenge Trump for the GOP nod in 2020. If Kasich chickens out, one will still run. Christine Todd Whitman is a good example of someone who could. But I imagine it’ll be even more of a has been from the 90’s-00’s if Kasich doesn’t.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

While I doubt he'll take the plunge, David Jolly wrote on Twitter that Pennsylvania shows he that he shouldn't run for office again this year and that he wants to be "a part of that primary" that he wants against Trump in 2020.

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/973744450727006208

He could just be like, FL chair for Kasich or something.

Kasich might end up chickening out though, or else he might opt to run 3rd party and skip the GOP primaries.  I continue to think that some folks are underrating the probability that all of those most commonly floated names like Kasich, Flake, Sasse, Cuban, etc., decide not to run in the GOP primaries, but that some seemingly random former Republican governor or member of Congress fills the void by jumping into the race and challenging Trump for the nomination.  Maybe that'll be Jolly, I don't know.

His wife replied “Just Watch!” in the comments though, and they wished her best of luck. Jolly 2020 wouldn’t be as crazy as it sounds.

[scutosaurus]

Hickenlooper is apparently visiting Iowa on April 3rd:

https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-announces-2018-future-ready-iowa-summit-registration-to-open-this-week

….and “holding meetings with veteran political players” about a presidential run:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_31728789/behind-scenes-colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-inches-toward

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On first reading, I missed one of the weirdest angles in this story....that Michael Bennet and Ken Salazar might also be considering presidential runs(!):

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SAVE US MICHAEL BENNET! I've urged Senator Bennet to run on social media a few times; if he runs I'll immediately endorse him and join his campaign.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

While I doubt he'll take the plunge, David Jolly wrote on Twitter that Pennsylvania shows he that he shouldn't run for office again this year and that he wants to be "a part of that primary" that he wants against Trump in 2020.

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/973744450727006208

I'd support him over Trump.

[TheSaint250]

His wife replied “Just Watch!” in the comments though, and they wished her best of luck. Jolly 2020 wouldn’t be as crazy as it sounds.

Honestly, he's got nothing to lose at this point

I'd support him over Trump.

I think he'd make himself to be a good alternative

[Mr. Morden]

Biden makes some endorsements in Pennsylvania House races:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/378575-biden-launches-latest-round-of-endorsements-in-competitive-house-seats

[Doimper]

Hickenlooper is apparently visiting Iowa on April 3rd:

https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-announces-2018-future-ready-iowa-summit-registration-to-open-this-week

….and “holding meetings with veteran political players” about a presidential run:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_31728789/behind-scenes-colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-inches-toward

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On first reading, I missed one of the weirdest angles in this story....that Michael Bennet and Ken Salazar might also be considering presidential runs(!):

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SAVE US MICHAEL BENNET! I've urged Senator Bennet to run on social media a few times; if he runs I'll immediately endorse him and join his campaign.

I can't imagine a person less suited to run for President in the current political environment than Michael Bennet.

[Mr. Morden]

Flake says the GOP's support for Trump means it "might not deserve to lead":

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/15/politics/jeff-flake-criticizes-gop-trump/index.html

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[scutosaurus]

Hickenlooper is apparently visiting Iowa on April 3rd:

https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-announces-2018-future-ready-iowa-summit-registration-to-open-this-week

….and “holding meetings with veteran political players” about a presidential run:

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/ci_31728789/behind-scenes-colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-inches-toward

You must be logged in to read this quote.

On first reading, I missed one of the weirdest angles in this story....that Michael Bennet and Ken Salazar might also be considering presidential runs(!):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

SAVE US MICHAEL BENNET! I've urged Senator Bennet to run on social media a few times; if he runs I'll immediately endorse him and join his campaign.

I can't imagine a person less suited to run for President in the current political environment than Michael Bennet.

I agree that it's very unlikely that he'll end up running for President (and if he did, there's a minuscule chance he would be able to make it through a primary against the likes of Biden or Sanders), but I can dream.

[Mr. Morden]

More Flake:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/03/15/jeff-flake-new-hampshire-potential-presidential-bid-brings-mixed-reactions-arizona-republicans/426706002/

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[Mr. Morden]

I highly doubt Kristol is going to run himself, but I'll mention this anyway:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/bill-kristol-2020-scheduled-speak-new-hampshire/

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Well, just one day after doing this event in New Hampshire, Kristol is now set to also speak in Iowa later this month:

http://qctimes.com/news/local/government-and-politics/nevertrump-conservative-to-speak-at-cornell/article_23b9b69e-ae65-5df6-a91f-20421dd33e8a.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Now that Kristol 2020 is apparently a thing, this piece from a few weeks ago is worth flagging:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/exile-bill-kristol-republican-resister-chief-100007991.html

In it, Kristol says that he’ll leave the GOP if Trump is reelected in 2020:

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Also:

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[Obama-Biden Democrat]

How long will it be until the first debates happen on the Democratic side? I do remember them starting around August 2011 during the 2012 Republican primaries. I don't remember the debate schedule in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

How long will it be until the first debates happen on the Democratic side? I do remember them starting around August 2011 during the 2012 Republican primaries. I don't remember the debate schedule in 2016.

The first Republican debate of the 2012 cycle was actually held as early as May 2011.  (And heck, the Democratic debates of the 2008 cycle started as early as April 2007!). But that first GOP debate of the 2012 cycle was only attended by 5 candidates, and frontrunner Mitt Romney didn't show up.

In the 2016 cycle, the debates started later.  August 2015 for the Republicans and October 2015 for the Dems.

There were a couple of things that happened that ended up pushing the debate starting gate later: One is that candidates started declaring a bit later.  In the 2008 cycle, you had a bunch of candidates declaring in January / February or so, but that got pushed into the spring for the 2012 and 2016 cycles, in large part because of Super PACs.  Most candidates don't even do exploratory committees anymore.  They just use their Super PAC as a pseudo-exploratory committee, which means spending a slightly longer period of time pretending that they're not yet running for president.  So if you're holding debates in May, then some of the candidates haven't declared yet, and others have only been in the race for a couple of weeks and don't want to debate yet.

Another thing that changed is that the DNC and RNC became more involved in the debate planning, and they didn't really want to start things as early as April or May.  Before the DNC and RNC really got involved, the networks would just team up with the state party in Iowa or New Hampshire or whatever, announce there was going to be a debate, and dare the candidates not to show up.  So they could get away with doing that very early, and the candidates didn't want to upset activists in the early states by not showing up.  Now that the national parties are involved, it doesn't quite work like that anymore.

So, I don't know exactly when the 2020 debates will start.  Presumably some time in the latter half of 2019, but I have no idea when.  With a large field of candidates, I guess they'd probably start as early as August 2019 like the GOP did four year earlier?  That's just a wild guess though.

[American2020]

Flake eyes 2020 primary challenge to stop Trump

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/desperate-stop-trump-flake-eyes-2020-primary-challenge-051623639--election.html

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley's PAC "Win Back Your State" has recently made some endorsements, including Nate Boulton for Iowa governor, and a couple of candidates in the early caucus state of Nevada:

https://medium.com/@winyourstate