The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Coldstream]

Avenatti is the id of the Democratic Party like Trump was the id of the Republican Party. Democrats should be sensible enough to ignore the urge to nominate him...but...

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Michael Avenatti has officially launched a PAC. (TheFightPAC.org)

This whole contest is over.

We have our winner.

I might vote for Avenatti. He's not a spineless wimp who rolls over and gives the Republicans everything they want like most Democrats are.  I think Democrats are hungry for a candidate with a spine.

This but unironically.

Like, I seriously respect/like Avenatti.

I think he's a sane Democrat that, with the right VP running mate, could appeal to the Rust Belt voters and beat Trump.

[tosk]

Michael Avenatti has officially launched a PAC. (TheFightPAC.org)

This whole contest is over.

We have our winner.

I might vote for Avenatti. He's not a spineless wimp who rolls over and gives the Republicans everything they want like most Democrats are.  I think Democrats are hungry for a candidate with a spine.

This but unironically.

Like, I seriously respect/like Avenatti.

I think he's a sane Democrat that, with the right VP running mate, could appeal to the Rust Belt voters and beat Trump.

oh lord

it begins

[ShamDam]

Michael Avenatti has officially launched a PAC. (TheFightPAC.org)

This whole contest is over.

We have our winner.

I might vote for Avenatti. He's not a spineless wimp who rolls over and gives the Republicans everything they want like most Democrats are.  I think Democrats are hungry for a candidate with a spine.

This but unironically.

Like, I seriously respect/like Avenatti.

I think he's a sane Democrat that, with the right VP running mate, could appeal to the Rust Belt voters and beat Trump.

I want a nominee with guts too but there's no way this guy doesn't have a binder full of Me Toos waiting to emerge

[Karpatsky]

Michael Avenatti has officially launched a PAC. (TheFightPAC.org)

This whole contest is over.

We have our winner.

I might vote for Avenatti. He's not a spineless wimp who rolls over and gives the Republicans everything they want like most Democrats are.  I think Democrats are hungry for a candidate with a spine.

This but unironically.

Like, I seriously respect/like Avenatti.

I think he's a sane Democrat that, with the right VP running mate, could appeal to the Rust Belt voters and beat Trump.

I would never vote for him in a D primary, but it's not like he's out there enough to make it a hard decision in the general, even for me.

[Mr. Morden]

Kerry:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/09/off-message-podcast-john-kerry-2020-trump-221090

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Harris:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-09/midterm-elections-kamala-harris-channels-obama-for-democrats

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Sanders preps 9 day “campaign blitz”, which will include stops in IA, NV, and SC, among other states:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bernie-sanders-plans-nine-day-blitz-for-democratic-candidates-on-midterm-ballot/2018/10/08/0709a148-cb50-11e8-a3e6-44daa3d35ede_story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Haley:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1049674007342133248

[NewYorkExpress]

Haley:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1049674007342133248

I'm a little amused that Haley had to deny this.

If anyone's going to challenge Trump, it'll be Kasich.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Long NYT on Biden: he's undecided but intensely deliberating due to the lack of a clear field leader he could support. Private poll has him beloved in Iowa and up comfortably on Warren there. Obamaworld, including Michelle and Jarrett, is encouraging Patrick.

Honestly if Biden doesn't have Obamaworld support I don't see him running. What exactly would be his lane?

Considering Obamaworld prefered Clinton over him and now seems to have picked Patricks over him really makes it look like they have little trust in Biden's potential.

Biden had some pretty terrible gaffes in the 2008 Democratic primary. He said he had appeal to the South, because Delaware was a slave state. He also made a gaffe about Indian 7/11 clerks, and in 1988 he had the plagiarism scandal.

[NewYorkExpress]

Haley:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1049674007342133248

I'm a little amused that Haley had to deny this.

If anyone's going to challenge Trump, it'll be Kasich.

I personally think Haley is setting herself up to primary Lindsey Graham in 2020.

[Horsemask]

Haley:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1049674007342133248

I'm a little amused that Haley had to deny this.

If anyone's going to challenge Trump, it'll be Kasich.

I personally think Haley is setting herself up to primary Lindsey Graham in 2020.

Think the following happens:

Trump replaces Sessions with Graham at AG
McMaster appoints Haley to Senate

[NewYorkExpress]

Haley:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1049674007342133248

I'm a little amused that Haley had to deny this.

If anyone's going to challenge Trump, it'll be Kasich.

I personally think Haley is setting herself up to primary Lindsey Graham in 2020.

Think the following happens:

Trump replaces Sessions with Graham at AG
McMaster appoints Haley to Senate

I wonder if Graham would rather just replace Haley at the UN.

[Horsemask]

Debates emerge as 2020 Democratic primary flash point

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/08/democrats-debates-2020-elections-853029

Interesting to hear they could be starting as early as the spring. If that's the case, it might force some candidates to move up on their timelines.

[Mr. Morden]

Iger reiterates that he's not running for president:

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2018/10/09/disney-ceo-bob-iger-says-he-wont-make-presidential-bid-in-2020

Jeff Weaver talks about Sanders's upcoming campaign schedule:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/10/09/sanders-set-to-tour-country-decide-if-hell-run-again-in-2020/

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That "focused on who is best able to defeat President Donald Trump" is an interesting formulation, because it matches what Biden is saying: That he could be deterred from running if he found someone else in the field who had a better chance of winning.  Of course, this is ultimately a rather vacuous statement, because you can always claim to have found better candidates or not depending on whether you decide that you want to run.

I guess the other interesting thing is the "no timetable" comment, which is in contrast to both Biden and many of the 2nd tier candidates, who are explicitly eyeing early 2019 for their decision time.

[NewYorkExpress]

Debates emerge as 2020 Democratic primary flash point

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/08/democrats-debates-2020-elections-853029

Interesting to hear they could be starting as early as the spring. If that's the case, it might force some candidates to move up on their timelines.

Candidates like Biden, Sanders and Warren can wait as long as they want with their higher name recognition.

Michelle Obama probably could wait as long as possible too...but she isn't running.

[Sir Mohamed]

Debates emerge as 2020 Democratic primary flash point

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/08/democrats-debates-2020-elections-853029

Interesting to hear they could be starting as early as the spring. If that's the case, it might force some candidates to move up on their timelines.

Candidates like Biden, Sanders and Warren can wait as long as they want with their higher name recognition.

Michelle Obama probably could wait as long as possible too...but she isn't running.

I like presidential campaigns, but the first debate shouldn't be before September or October 2019. It's ridiculous we spent almost half of a presidential term with campaigning.

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg registers as a Democrat again, potentially as a precursor to a run for the party's presidential nomination:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-bloomberg-registers-democrat_us_5bbdde1ae4b0876edaa3fae9

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden says he's not "an aspiring candidate" for the White House "at this point":

https://www.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-leaves-door-open-135452287.html

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[Sir Mohamed]

Bloomberg registers as a Democrat again, potentially as a precursor to a run for the party's presidential nomination:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-bloomberg-registers-democrat_us_5bbdde1ae4b0876edaa3fae9

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Bloomberg isn't happening. Too old, too wealthy, too moderate...

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg registers as a Democrat again, potentially as a precursor to a run for the party's presidential nomination:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-bloomberg-registers-democrat_us_5bbdde1ae4b0876edaa3fae9

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Bloomberg isn't happening. Too old, too wealthy, too moderate...

He won't win the nomination, but, simply by virtue of having built in name recognition and lots of $ to spend on national media, he might get high enough poll #s to qualify for the 1st tier debate stage, thereby taking a spot that would otherwise go to someone else.  E.g., in this poll from June, he got 3%, which would presumably be enough to qualify for the debate stage:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295255.0

[gottsu]

Kerry:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/09/off-message-podcast-john-kerry-2020-trump-221090

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Harris:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-09/midterm-elections-kamala-harris-channels-obama-for-democrats

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Sanders preps 9 day “campaign blitz”, which will include stops in IA, NV, and SC, among other states:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bernie-sanders-plans-nine-day-blitz-for-democratic-candidates-on-midterm-ballot/2018/10/08/0709a148-cb50-11e8-a3e6-44daa3d35ede_story.html

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Bloomberg registers as a Democrat again, potentially as a precursor to a run for the party's presidential nomination:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-bloomberg-registers-democrat_us_5bbdde1ae4b0876edaa3fae9

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More gerontocracy!

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Bloomberg registers as a Democrat again, potentially as a precursor to a run for the party's presidential nomination:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-bloomberg-registers-democrat_us_5bbdde1ae4b0876edaa3fae9

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The internet in 2004: "Bloomberg's gonna run against Bush!"

The internet in 2008: "Bloomberg's gonna run against Obama and Hillary!"

The internet in 2012: "Bloomberg's gonna run an independent campaign!"

The internet in 2016: "Bloomberg's gonna run an independent campaign!"

[UWS]

Long NYT on Biden: he's undecided but intensely deliberating due to the lack of a clear field leader he could support. Private poll has him beloved in Iowa and up comfortably on Warren there. Obamaworld, including Michelle and Jarrett, is encouraging Patrick.

Honestly if Biden doesn't have Obamaworld support I don't see him running. What exactly would be his lane?

Considering Obamaworld prefered Clinton over him and now seems to have picked Patricks over him really makes it look like they have little trust in Biden's potential.

Biden had some pretty terrible gaffes in the 2008 Democratic primary. He said he had appeal to the South, because Delaware was a slave state. He also made a gaffe about Indian 7/11 clerks, and in 1988 he had the plagiarism scandal.

But all of that was before he became Vice-President.

[exopolitician]

Biden says he's not "an aspiring candidate" for the White House "at this point":

https://www.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-leaves-door-open-135452287.html

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Good

[RogueBeaver]

AP on Avenatti.