The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton says he's not "planning" to run for president:

link

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[President Johnson]

John Kasich again on Meet the Press. He says he may or may not run for president in 2020.

[RogueBeaver]

Buttigieg's PAC is low on funds, but he'll be campaigning for TX Dem congressional candidates next month.

Moulton says he doesn't know where he'll be in 5 years, loves his current job.

[henster]

The more people running just increases the chance of a brokered convention, the DNC will need to come down hard with debate rules. High polling threshold like 10-15% would really discourage a lot of these people.

[Sir Mohamed]

The more people running just increases the chance of a brokered convention, the DNC will need to come down hard with debate rules. High polling threshold like 10-15% would really discourage a lot of these people.

Not necessarily. I think the first candidates will start dropping out by October 2019. After Iowa, maybe a half a dozen will be left; and past Super Tuesday, it's down to two or three.

[CookieDamage]

The more people running just increases the chance of a brokered convention, the DNC will need to come down hard with debate rules. High polling threshold like 10-15% would really discourage a lot of these people.

Not necessarily. I think the first candidates will start dropping out by October 2019. After Iowa, maybe a half a dozen will be left; and past Super Tuesday, it's down to two or three.

Yeah, it's ridiculous to think that like 20 candidates will still be remaining around the convention. After Iowa, I expect all but Warren, Harris, Sanders, Biden, Booker, and maybe Gillibrand to drop out. After Super Tuesday, I think it narrows down to Harris and Sanders.

[Mr. Morden]

Two of Warren's aides headed for New Hampshire:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/08/13/two-aides-for-elizabeth-warren-have-decamped/2VnIMDQ1HhmIXfqIBkc9KN/story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Steyer's putting up even more money for Dems in the midterms, targeting "infrequent voters" who might not otherwise vote in the midterms:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/billionaire-steyer-adding-10-million-to-trump-impeachment-drive

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Rubio says he's not running for prez in 2020, and says that if anyone challenges Trump for the nomination, it would damage the party's GE chances:

https://www.news-press.com/story/news/2018/08/13/marco-rubio-no-plans-challenge-president-donald-trump-2020/975708002/

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[The Mikado]

All it takes under Democratic rules to pretty much guarantee a brokered convention is three serious candidates in a competitive three-way horse race. 2016 GOP race under Dem rules would've 100% been a brokered convention, for example.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mike Hickabee

[henster]

All it takes under Democratic rules to pretty much guarantee a brokered convention is three serious candidates in a competitive three-way horse race. 2016 GOP race under Dem rules would've 100% been a brokered convention, for example.

I think it will ultimately end up being a two person race Dem primaries almost always tend to end up that way. I'm thinking Warren vs. Harris something like that, it'll probably narrow down later than usual though.

[Da2017]

All it takes under Democratic rules to pretty much guarantee a brokered convention is three serious candidates in a competitive three-way horse race. 2016 GOP race under Dem rules would've 100% been a brokered convention, for example.

I think it will ultimately end up being a two person race Dem primaries almost always tend to end up that way. I'm thinking Warren vs. Harris something like that, it'll probably narrow down later than usual though.

Warren vs Harris won't be nearly as divisive as Clinton vs Sanders/ Both candidates are pretty similar,with Warren having more a populist appeal.

[CookieDamage]

A.) I think it'll be a two person race once Super Tuesday ends

B.) I think it'll come down to these people: Harris, Sanders, Biden, Warren, Booker, possibly Sherrod Brown if he wants to run and maybe Gillibrand. And some of those people, namely Sanders, Biden, and Warren, may not even run.

C.) I don't THINK it'll be down to these people: Bullock, Klobuchar, Garcetti, Ryan, Cuomo, Merkley, Patrick, Moulton, or O'Malley.

D.) It might end up being someone from C.) if things just happen to go along in their favor.

E.) I support Kamala Harris so I want it to be her. I think a Harris/Sanders ticket would be exciting, and I think a Harris/Brown ticket would be highly powerful. I used to like a Harris/Bullock ticket but his whole private prison thing, even though people might forget about it, is a bit icky.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden was set to campaign for Pritzker in Illinois, but is under doctor's orders not to travel due to an illness (so Buttigieg is going instead):

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/joe-biden-falls-ill-wont-campaign-for-dems-at-illinois-state-fair/

We'll see if this is just a one off.  If Biden ends up getting sidelined for health reasons more in the future, then it would obviously have implications for any decision on whether to do another presidential run.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1029731957926768640

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1029731957926768640

Great! It's essentially clear now that Bullock will definitely run for POTUS.

[junior chįmp]

Crazy Cuomo inserts foot in mouth:

https://www.twitter.com/Joel_Searby/status/1029798017082294272

[MAINEiac4434]

Crazy Cuomo inserts foot in mouth:

https://www.twitter.com/Joel_Searby/status/1029798017082294272

Cuomo finally says something that's true.

[Sestak]

Crazy Cuomo inserts foot in mouth:

https://www.twitter.com/Joel_Searby/status/1029798017082294272

Cuomo finally says something that's true.

I mean, there may be some truth to it, but the way he said it is pretty awful.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer asked about 2020, answers "I'm not ruling it out":

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/tom-steyer-on-2020-run-im-not-ruling-it-out

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[CookieDamage]

Crazy Cuomo inserts foot in mouth:

https://www.twitter.com/Joel_Searby/status/1029798017082294272

Cuomo finally says something that's true.

I mean, there may be some truth to it, but the way he said it is pretty awful.

Eh. Slavery. Violent colonization. Segregation. Annihilation of Native Americans. Genocide. Ethnic Cleansing. Imperialism. Stealing land from Mexico because of an expansionist war. America isn't jack. The only reason I'm politically active is because I genuinely like our diversity and the vision to have better education, better healthcare, better civil institutions, better justice system, fairer economy etc. But patriotism? Yeah, nah, this country's history is seriously evil.

[Mr. Morden]

All it takes under Democratic rules to pretty much guarantee a brokered convention is three serious candidates in a competitive three-way horse race. 2016 GOP race under Dem rules would've 100% been a brokered convention, for example.

It also depends on whether the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place candidates are willing to formally drop out and release their delegates once it's clear that they're not going to get a majority themselves.  Part of the reason why the 2016 GOP race would have been a sure brokered convention under Dem. rules is that the other candidates hated Trump and weren't willing to defer to him until it was clear that he was guaranteed to get a delegate majority anyway.  Whereas in some of the primary races from decades past, that wasn't always the case.  Primary losers sometimes gave up and released their delegates.

So I think part of the equation here is what the runners up are willing to do, and whether they and their supporters are willing to concede defeat if it becomes clear that they're not going to be able to win the nomination themselves.  I do wonder, for example, if Sanders holding back on conceding in 2016 until the week of the convention was a harbinger of how these things are going to tend to play out from now on.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1030184901256069120

[Former Kentuckian]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1030184901256069120

Bullock is moving fast

[Tinand]

Both Sanders and Biden 2020 are a bad idea. The Dems need a fresh progressive face. If things keep going this way the election will be equal to a retirement home.