VA-Fox: Northam +4 (user search)
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  VA-Fox: Northam +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Fox: Northam +4  (Read 1513 times)
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
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« on: September 20, 2017, 09:16:01 AM »

This makes Quinnipiac even more of a ridiculous outlier. They have to be beyond embarrassed right now. Anyways, obvious Lean D race is obvious.

Why would they be embarrassed for a poll that makes statistical sense if the race is currently Northam +4?

Showing Northam up 10 when all other polls are showing a far closer race is a great sign that Quinnipiac is sh**t. That this poll also shows a close race just emphasizes how dumb Quinnipiac is with their Northam +10 finding.

For someone with 14,000 posts on a polling website, you don't seem to know about MoE.
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BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
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Posts: 4,298


« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2017, 05:43:15 PM »

God, this site is just getting dumber and dumber over time. I hate to defend Wulfric but what passes for sophistication around here is juvenile. It's true in theory, the race could be Northam +4, and with a 3% MoE, if Gillespie's number is at the very bottom end of that range and Northam's error is at the very top end in the Quinnipiac, then the truth is within Quinnipiac's 95% confidence interval. But to say that it "makes statistical sense" is meaningless. There's no such thing as "makes statistical sense." What are the odds that the true margin is 4% AND Quinnipiac poll has Northam at the top of their confidence interval AND Gillespie at the bottom, versus the probability that there is some house effect?

That is completely untrue.
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