VA-Fox: Northam +4 (user search)
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  VA-Fox: Northam +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Fox: Northam +4  (Read 1514 times)
Beet
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Posts: 28,804


« on: September 20, 2017, 10:02:50 AM »

God, this site is just getting dumber and dumber over time. I hate to defend Wulfric but what passes for sophistication around here is juvenile. It's true in theory, the race could be Northam +4, and with a 3% MoE, if Gillespie's number is at the very bottom end of that range and Northam's error is at the very top end in the Quinnipiac, then the truth is within Quinnipiac's 95% confidence interval. But to say that it "makes statistical sense" is meaningless. There's no such thing as "makes statistical sense." What are the odds that the true margin is 4% AND Quinnipiac poll has Northam at the top of their confidence interval AND Gillespie at the bottom, versus the probability that there is some house effect?
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