UncleSam
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,509
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« on: September 20, 2017, 11:30:00 AM » |
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If the race is Northam +4 then Quinnipiac would have achieved a p value of p~.05 with their Northam +10 and a MOE of +/- 3 points (though it is worth noting - is this MOE reported for the net top like or for the individual proportions? It's not exactly clear to me they are consistent and very rarely explain where their top line comes from) in the absolute best case scenario. This is a poor result no matter how you slice it.
What's probably worse for Quinnipiac, however, is the inaccuracy of their cross tabs (again. Assuming a Northam +4 result). They showed a gargantuan gender gap of 40 points net which hasn't been replicated anywhere else, and have no age bands or political affiliations.
In other words, Wulfric is more or less right. Quinnipiac looks like a complete joke of a pollster to anyone familiar with polling methodology right now.
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