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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  VA-UMW: Northam +5
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Author Topic: VA-UMW: Northam +5  (Read 753 times)
heatcharger
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« on: September 18, 2017, 11:39:32 am »

Link.

Governor:
Northam 44%
Gillespie 39%

Lt. Governor:
Fairfax 45%
Vogel 40%

Attorney General:
Herring 47%
Adams 40%
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2017, 11:41:18 am »

This is definitely more believable than Suffolk. Lean D, and closer to Likely D than Tossup.
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The Saint
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2017, 11:44:05 am »

Good for Northam, but still 15% undecided/other.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2017, 11:45:36 am »

Good for Northam, though it's worth noting that 56% of the electorate not being willing to embrace him is not the best sign.
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Arch
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2017, 11:47:55 am »

Good for Northam, though it's worth noting that 56% of the electorate not being willing to embrace him is not the best sign.

You could say worse about Gillespie and his 61%.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2017, 12:00:49 pm »

Uh I'll comment on both polls here since this one is getting more attention.

A few notes:
1. Hyra gets 3% in both, so his support is probably pretty consistent and not a confounding variable.
2. In both polls, Northam/Gillespie get the same amount of support from within their own party (90% in this poll, 91% in the other). The other does not mention crossover support but Gillespie is winning 5% of Dems in this poll vs. 2% of Republicans supporting Northam.
3. In both polls, Gillespie leads among independents by roughly low double digits. The margin is 9 in this poll and 14 in the other.

Overall, the only way to explain the net 5% difference in top line is that the two polls make different assumptions about the electorate breakdown (the 5-point net change among independents is worth 1 net point on the top line, max). So these polls really are telling a more consistent story of the race than they would appear to at a glance.

Honestly I'd argue these polls are good news for Gillespie and concerning for Northam. 61% approval for retaining confederate statues and (more or less) being down double digits among independents + having almost no crossover appeal is a very bad sign - it means you are incredibly reliant on turnout among your base to win, which arguably Perriello would have been stronger at.

All that being said, VA is a light blue state and Northam was in a significant financial hole after the primaries, so it is definitely possible that when he starts ramping up spending (I presume he hasn't been spending much? Anyone have any campaign finance totals available?) I'll bet that the undecided voters (of whom there are many, in both polls) will probably tilt towards Northam, given the sheer number of Democrats living in Virginia.

Also worth noting that neither poll mentioned Trump's approval. It is very possible if they had (instead of, say, confederate statues) the results would look a little more encouraging for Northam.

Still, I think this is Tilt D now. Gillespie is doing what a Republican has to do to win, and Northam is campaigning to not lose. I'll bet if Northam takes some chances he could open up a much safer lead but his campaign seems pretty disappointing so far (anyone more in the know who can comment on Northam's campaign thus far?). Predictably, it'll all come down to turnout - if Stewart voters largely stay home then all the encouraging polling in the world won't help Gillespie. Similarly, if Perriello voters stay home then it'll be very difficult (though not impossible) for Northam to win unless he improves among independents.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2017, 12:09:53 pm »

Good for Northam, though it's worth noting that 56% of the electorate not being willing to embrace him is not the best sign.

You could say worse about Gillespie and his 61%.

Fair point, but if Virginia is really becoming the next Maryland like Atlas seems to think, the Dem nominee should be polling at 50%+ by now.
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Arch
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2017, 12:25:12 pm »

Good for Northam, though it's worth noting that 56% of the electorate not being willing to embrace him is not the best sign.

You could say worse about Gillespie and his 61%.

Fair point, but if Virginia is really becoming the next Maryland like Atlas seems to think, the Dem nominee should be polling at 50%+ by now.

I don't think Virginia is there yet. I think the R ceiling has continued to lower slowly over recent years, but the floor hasn't gone out from under them, yet. When it does, that's when VA turns in MD.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2017, 12:32:34 pm »

Thanks for posting the full details!

Anyway, it is immediately obvious where the two polls most likely differ: this poll's methodology asks for the youngest adult who is 18+ in the house, and does not report age bands. That's either intentional or a pretty big oversight, and again a bad sign for Northam. Very surprised that the polling is this close given this methodology, honestly.
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Siren
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2017, 12:34:57 pm »

All that being said, VA is a light blue state and Northam was in a significant financial hole after the primaries, so it is definitely possible that when he starts ramping up spending (I presume he hasn't been spending much? Anyone have any campaign finance totals available?) I'll bet that the undecided voters (of whom there are many, in both polls) will probably tilt towards Northam, given the sheer number of Democrats living in Virginia.

Reports for the period ending August 31 were just filed on Friday actually!

Northam

Raised: $7,214,788.57
Spent: $3,345,225.47
Cash on hand: $5,615,156.08

Gillespie

Raised: $3,690,705.44
Spent: $4,362,536.54
Cash on hand: $2,600,351.14
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Virginiá
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2017, 01:01:46 pm »

Honestly I'd argue these polls are good news for Gillespie and concerning for Northam. 61% approval for retaining confederate statues and (more or less) being down double digits among independents + having almost no crossover appeal is a very bad sign - it means you are incredibly reliant on turnout among your base to win, which arguably Perriello would have been stronger at.

It's a good thing that the Democratic base is fired up right now, with the GOP base being depressed. Perriello may have helped more, but Gillespie might as well be the GOP Northam in this regard. If this is really a base turnout election, then Gillespie should be the one worried. If you go by the recent spat of special elections, there is nothing to suggest that Republicans will be over-performing in this year's general elections.

At any rate, the governors race seems less exciting this time for numerous reasons. The HoD elections are way more interesting, imo. They are a much better barometer for 2018, and also a spot where Democrats seriously need to begin chipping away at GOP power if they ever want to do anything substantial in Virginia. The last thing they should want is a reverse Kentucky situation, where the GOP holds on in that chamber for decades past their expiration date.
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