Japan Oct 22 2017 (user search)
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  Japan Oct 22 2017 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Japan Oct 22 2017  (Read 40936 times)
Zuza
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Posts: 359
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« on: October 10, 2017, 01:21:01 PM »

LDP   31.2 (+0.4)
KP      3.8 (---)
JRP     1.3 (+0.3)
HP      4.8 (-0.6)
DP      1.6(-2.3)
CDP    4.4 (new) 
SDP    0.5 (-0.1)
JCP     2.7 (-0.6)

DP means ex-DP independents?
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2017, 03:50:44 PM »

Also, do parties usually rise and fall this quickly in Japan?  It seems ridiculous how parties are just created so quickly.

In the recent years, yes. This started in 2012, after a period of relative stability. Most of the parties (and all the significant ones except LDP, Komeito and JCP) that contested the 2012 election do not exist anymore.
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2017, 05:52:50 PM »

running through three PMs in as many years

LDP isn't much different, though: there were 3 LDP PMs between 2006 and 2009, and few Japanese PMs ever served longer than 3 years. Koizumi and post-2012 Abe are clear exceptions.
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2017, 05:53:40 PM »

Dumb question: If HP wins, can Yuriko Koike become PM or does she have to resign as governor/run for a seat in parliament in a special election? If she didn't, who would become PM?

Well for her to be PM she will have to be a MP either in the Upper or Lower House.  So in the unlikely event HP plus a bunch of parties including KP and/or some LDP splinter, for Koike to become PM she has to run in a by-election to get in.  Worse, even if a HP MP resigns for Koike to get elected the delay between a MP resigning and by-election might be months leaving politics in a limbo.

I'm curious how many Koike supporters are aware of this and how this affects their voting intentions...
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2017, 10:01:41 PM »

One again Abe timed the election as to eliminate his most dangerous rival before she becomes a threat.

Who was the rival in 2014?
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2017, 06:02:39 PM »

Same poll breaks out the PR vote by certain age groups



18-29 year olds   LDP 41 HP 13 CDP 6
60s                    LDP 27  HP 10 CDP 20

The youth clearly lean Right while people in the 60s lean left.  They do not show it but I am sure if they had result for 70+ it will swing back to being pro-LDP again.

How to explain all this?

I think I've never seen breakdown by age groups before.
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2017, 09:28:18 PM »

Same poll breaks out the PR vote by certain age groups



18-29 year olds   LDP 41 HP 13 CDP 6
60s                    LDP 27  HP 10 CDP 20

The youth clearly lean Right while people in the 60s lean left.  They do not show it but I am sure if they had result for 70+ it will swing back to being pro-LDP again.

How to explain all this?

I think I've never seen breakdown by age groups before.

Japanese youth tend to prioritize conformity and social acceptance.  LDP seems to represent status quo, stability, and social acceptance.    As they get older and face more difficult economic problems then some of them start to turn against LDP.

And those who are 70+ support LDP just because elderly people in general tend to be conservative? How do you think, support for opposition peaks in 60-69 or in some younger age group?
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2017, 10:34:40 AM »


Japanese youth tend to prioritize conformity and social acceptance.  LDP seems to represent status quo, stability, and social acceptance.    As they get older and face more difficult economic problems then some of them start to turn against LDP.

And those who are 70+ support LDP just because elderly people in general tend to be conservative? How do you think, support for opposition peaks in 60-69 or in some younger age group?

I am not sure.  I have seen data in the past that showed this

2016 Upper House election exit poll which projected results in terms of seats if only a certain age group could vote



Real result was LDP-KP 70 Opposition Parties 51

       LDP-KP    Opposition 
10s        72             49
20s        82             39    -> strongest age group with ruling parties
30s        75             46
40s        71             50
50s        71             50
60s        61             60     -> strongest age group with opposition parties
70s        70             51



I suspect it is because people in their 60s came of age in the 1970s during a Leftist surge in Japan and people in the 70s came of age in the 1960s which is the heyday of the Japanese economic boom which many associate with LDP.

Thanks! Initially I thought there is a huge age gap, but now it seems that voter preferences are basically uniform except 20s and 60s.
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2017, 01:37:58 PM »

ANN exit poll on PR by age group



LDP - red
KP - pink
HP - dark green
JRP - light green
CDP - blue
JCP - purple

I can't see the picture :-(...
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2017, 01:51:35 PM »

ANN exit poll on PR by age group



LDP - red
KP - pink
HP - dark green
JRP - light green
CDP - blue
JCP - purple

LDP-KP stronger with the youth and gets weaker with age but reverses in the 70s.  CDP-JCP gets stronger with age again with reversal at 70s.  HP-JRP seems to be the same for all age groups.

Interesting as isn't the LDP the more conservative of the main parties?  In the English speaking world at least you have the opposite where parties on the left tend to do well amongst the youngest while as one ages they become more right wing.  UK being the most extreme example where Labour won by 40 points amongst millennials but Tories won by 40 amongst seniors.  Most aren't quite as extreme as that but still seems to buck the trend somewhat in the West.

Yes, I find this very unusual too. In the West left-wing and liberal parties clearly have younger voters than conservative ones. In many post-Communist countries communist and socialist parties are more popular among older voters, but this is understandable since these parties (which are usually successors to ruling parties of the Communist era) are in many ways actually conservative and their main voting base are nostalgic elderly people. But in Japan LDP is consistently the most conservative and right-wing party on all issues (except tiny and irrelevant PJK).
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Zuza
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Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2017, 12:06:31 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2017, 12:08:23 AM by Zuza »

To hazard a guess: I imagine that young Japanese are far less likely to be strict pacifists and, thus, are liable to be sympathetic to Abe's push for constitutional reforms, which can be framed as "modernizing" Japan, whereas elderly Japanese - at least, the left-inclined ones - who grew up in the shadow of WWII, are far more likely to be strict pacifists or to take issue with militarism. Further, Abenomics is rather radical in its thrust - constituting a break from ill-advised half-measures and the schizoid nature of post-90s crisis management in Japan - so I can see why young people in Japan would back the LDP, who are seeking to bring Japan out of its ~30 year period of malaise.

The LDP is a terrible party and Abe is a bit of a nutcase but they deserve credit for reviving the Japanese economy.



Hazarding to guess, I'd speculate that conservative Japanese have more children than liberal ones. Thus, each successive generation, reflecting the mores and values of their parents, is more conservative than the last.

Israel and Turkey is seeing that phenomena.

I highly doubt it. Conservative people tend to have more children in almost any society, but in almost all of these societies younger generations are less conservative than older. Israel and Turkey are very unusual in that regard: in Turkey there are huge regional and ethnic (Turks vs Kurds) differences, and in Israel Jews of different origin tend to form separate communities with very different birth rates. Japan is much more culturally homogeneous, and it's birth rate is so low that I can't believe it's hugely higher among conservative people (unless among non-conservatives it's close to 0).

Turnout explanation is much more believable.
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Zuza
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 359
Russian Federation
« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2017, 01:08:29 PM »

To hazard a guess: I imagine that young Japanese are far less likely to be strict pacifists and, thus, are liable to be sympathetic to Abe's push for constitutional reforms, which can be framed as "modernizing" Japan, whereas elderly Japanese - at least, the left-inclined ones - who grew up in the shadow of WWII, are far more likely to be strict pacifists or to take issue with militarism. Further, Abenomics is rather radical in its thrust - constituting a break from ill-advised half-measures and the schizoid nature of post-90s crisis management in Japan - so I can see why young people in Japan would back the LDP, who are seeking to bring Japan out of its ~30 year period of malaise.

The LDP is a terrible party and Abe is a bit of a nutcase but they deserve credit for reviving the Japanese economy.



Hazarding to guess, I'd speculate that conservative Japanese have more children than liberal ones. Thus, each successive generation, reflecting the mores and values of their parents, is more conservative than the last.

Israel and Turkey is seeing that phenomena.

I highly doubt it. Conservative people tend to have more children in almost any society, but in almost all of these societies younger generations are less conservative than older. Israel and Turkey are very unusual in that regard: in Turkey there are huge regional and ethnic (Turks vs Kurds) differences, and in Israel Jews of different origin tend to form separate communities with very different birth rates. Japan is much more culturally homogeneous, and it's birth rate is so low that I can't believe it's hugely higher among conservative people (unless among non-conservatives it's close to 0).

Turnout explanation is much more believable.

Your understanding of the situation in Turkey and Israel simply misses the effect of religion on fertility. Conservative religious people have more children creating a more conservative electorate in the next generation.


Of course, conservative people in most countries on average have more children. But in most of these countries younger generations do not become more conservative than older ones.
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