Japan Oct 22 2017

[Oryxslayer]

Have there been boundary changes to the fptp constituencies since the last election?

No.  Other than 6 prefectures lost 1 seat each

However, 10 members were removed from the diet. Which 4 at large seats were cut - I'm making a base-map for a different site BTW.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh, it would be great if they decided to pull a Theresa May now.

That would require some heavy vote splitting...but voters were happy enough to move from HP to CDP earlier despite one being a a party on the right, the other on the left - so perhaps it is possible. Or perhaps HP has shed enough of DP/Anti-LDP brand with the rise of CDP that they get more At-Large seats in the traditional LDP strongholds due to soft LDP voters wanting to tell the LDP to remove Abe - something some of the regional polls from last week might have suggested. Or perhaps the high early vote bodes well for the opposition. We don't know, and none of these are likely. This is all of course referring to a substantially reduced - LDP-KP majority, not an actual defeat mind you.

BTW, thank you jaichind for your coverage in the past month. I wouldn't be able to state the above with any level of confidence without your coverage. I eagerly wait the results!

[Oryxslayer]

愛知(Aichi) in day turnout at 10am 8.28%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 7.60%
Tokyo in day turnout at 1am at 5.45%.  In 2014 at 10am it was 4.42%

The million dollar question - Is turnout going to stay up all day (in addition to the larger early vote) or are people getting to the polls now for fear of rain?

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, they can fill in seats extremely quickly, already down to 174 remaining.

more likely is that those are the safe seats without any real opposition to talk about.

[Oryxslayer]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  183
KP     25
JRP     4
HP    29
CDP  32
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is

LDP          199
KP              23
JRP              5
HP             32
CDP           32
SDP             1
JCP              7
Ind(LDP)      1
Ind(OPPN)  14

Depends upon what they think is safe/competitive...

[Oryxslayer]

Something to note here is that HP is struggling to reach its pre-election levels of deserters. That makes it incredibly likely that candidates return to the CDP post-election.

[Oryxslayer]

Has any vote actually been counted? I'm clicking around on the districts and I only saw one in Hokkaido at 2% or so of the voted counted.

[Oryxslayer]

Has any vote actually been counted? I'm clicking around on the districts and I only saw one in Hokkaido at 2% or so of the voted counted.

Very little. Most "results" are just based on exit polls.

I thought as much, just wanted confirmation.

[Oryxslayer]

So that means that, theoretically, the exit polls could sill be wrong and that LDP-KP could be underperforming at an even worse level?

Yes, though I think this would simply mean a bunch of the grey "marginal" seats don't go LDP - currently its just safe seats being projected I think.

[Oryxslayer]

Koike indicates that exit poll results are disappointing and that she will take responsibility for the results. 

A.K.A she'll probably resign.

Why would she resign - HP is her own personality party. Plus she isn't a MP, she is the govnor of Tokyo. More likely is that she won't raise a finger to stop the MP exodus to the CDP post election.

[Oryxslayer]

Abe speaking on NHK.

[Oryxslayer]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  220
KP     26
JRP     4
HP    32
CDP  35
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   17

Asahi it is
               
                Total    District   PR
LDP          228       174       54
KP              25          7       18
JRP              5           1        4
HP             36         11       25
CDP           38           9       29
SDP             1           1         0
JCP              9           1        8
Ind(LDP)      1           1
Ind(OPPN)  17         17

Do you know which seat the Pro-LDP inde is in?

[Oryxslayer]

Koike speaking.

[Oryxslayer]

Most projections now putting LDP/KP close to or above 2/3s - which would make the whole opposition fiascos of the last month be for naught.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm putting together my basemap, jaichind, do you happen to know where all the pro-LDP indes are who will be retconned in? The news sites tend to be listing them as LDP, and I want to distinguish the two.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a site with results in English?* Of course they always end up on the internet eventually and I can wait if need be.

_{*I mean any in a Latin alphabet would do...}

I just hit my computers auto-translate on NHK - the results are accurate enough to get the picture (despite the many errors.)

Overall, I think the fault in this failure of the opposition lies in three decisions made by Koike. First, the question of weather she would run for the chamber or remain a governor. While this really was a decision between a  rock and a hard place, if she decided to go for the Diet then her party would have a lot more credibility at the start. This would have discouraged the DP rebels from forming the CDP - the easier option would have been to entirely fold into HP and see what happens. The second decision was that once the DP folded into her, she shouldn't' have conducted the purges. The purging of leftist-MPs should have come after the election, or not at all. This simply gave the left wing of the DP a bone to pick with Koike. Finally, there was the decision between the opposition to not run under the HP/CDP brand in Tokyo and instead run against each other. As Jaichind said, the opposition really had a nice alliance system going this election, it simply wasn't in place in the one prefecture it mattered most. After making my seat map, I saw there are A LOT of Tokyo and Tokyo suburb seats that could have fallen if the opposition was unified. Instead, the opposition surge inside the city only realized a few CDP MPs in the heart of Tokyo.

Beyond that, the election was really outside of the oppositions control. Once the CDP was formed, it as natural that they would pick up the DP banner and all of their soft voters. The hurricane ruined opposition turnout, but that was unpredictable. It seems as if the gods really want Abe to be the eternal PM of Japan, first a snowstorm, then a hurricane.

[Oryxslayer]

Speaking of results here is my map of them as they currently stand: anything missing color is because of a lack of final results/change is position on the PR state. I recommend opening in a new window, the picture is reasonably large. I originally have HP as a moss/military green, but that was too similar to the LDP, so I was forced to give it the JIP light blue and give them a brown.

[Oryxslayer]

My finished map, as before I recommend viewing in another tab due to the image being larger then what Atlas allows

[Oryxslayer]

This is probably a really stupid question but I can't find an answer to it anywhere. 

Why was this election considered good for Abe if his party ended up losing seats? 

Simple. For 90% of the campaign, Abe was expected to lose (much?) more.