Japan Oct 22 2017 (user search)
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Author Topic: Japan Oct 22 2017  (Read 40924 times)
Cape Verde
asianzzang
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« on: October 09, 2017, 09:33:19 PM »

Professor 児玉克哉(Kodama Katsuya) who has a reasonable record as forecaster came out with his projection which has LDP falling below majority by itself although with LDP-KP with bare majority.
The high implied vote share for KP and JCP seems to indicate a lower turnout election where LDP is beaten in the district seats due to soild anti-LDP tactical voting by JRP HP CDP JCP and it seems in some cases defections from KP.

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          160         63      223             32.5%
KP               9         25        34             14.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP            13         13        26               8.5%
HP             79         38      117             21.0%
CDP             3         14       17                8.0%
SDP             1           0         1                1.5%
JCP              1         22        3               13.5%
Ind            23           0       23    most likely something like 4 pro-LDP 19 anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465


I don't think that the CDP will only win 3 districts. Considering that CDP will win at least 2-3 Hokkaido seats (due to lack of HP and JCP candidates, LDP's unpopularity in the state), Professor Kodama's prediction suggests that Yukio Edano (Saitama 5th), Akira Nagatsuma (Tokyo 7th), Nishimura Chinami (Niigata 1st), Shoichi Kondo (Aichi 3rd), Hirotaka Akamatsu (Aichi 5th), and Kiyomi Tsujimoto (Osaka 10th) will all lose their District Seats.

The only possible scenario of CDP winning only 3 districts is a LDP landslide at the expense of CDP-HP split (maybe 270+ seats), but this Professor rather predicted a huge HP surge.
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2017, 10:06:24 AM »

Any chance that conservative former DP-MPs would use HP as a stepping stone to cross over to LDP after the election?
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2017, 11:06:28 AM »

Right now, I don't see HP winning more than 4 seats (3rd, 10th, 15th, and 21st) in Tokyo.
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2017, 05:30:37 AM »

Well, CDP didn't field any candidates in Akita and Yamagata so HP will be higher than CDP in those states. Also, LDP upper house candidate in Yamagata lost to a joint opposition candidate by 21% points in last year's election. Regardless of how strong a candidate is, a 21%-point loss means that LDP is quite unpopular in that state.
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2017, 07:40:45 PM »

Agree with all four predictions except one, Saitama 12th. Although FPG and JIP shared same party roots, I still think being a former FPG candidate will cause at least a decent amount of left-wing voters to vote for a JCP candidate or even a LDP candidate.

Meanwhile, I think rural seats like Niigata 6th or Tokushima 1st can be much closer than what people thought.


Also, thank you for keeping me updated throughout this election campaign.
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2017, 08:12:02 PM »

Tokyo in day turnout at 9am is 2.48%  Back in 2014 at 9am was 1.89%

From which website do you get turnout data?
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2017, 06:24:10 AM »

NHK Tokyo Prediction.

CDP target seats
Likely CDP: 7th
Lean CDP: 5th, 18th, 22th
Tossup: 1st, 16th
Lean LDP: 2nd, 6th, 19th

Wakasa Masaru expected to finIsh 3rd.
HP expected to lose every Tokyo seat except 21st (Lean HP)
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2017, 06:30:29 AM »

Was 東京10区 expected to be close?

HP was losing ground, but at least everyone expected Wakasa Masaru to finish 2nd.
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2017, 10:58:38 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2017, 11:00:48 PM by December 26 »

Yamagata Prefecture

PR Vote Share

LDP+KP 46.5%
HP+CDP 41.0%
JCP+SDP 8.4%
JRP 2.9%
Others 1.2%

Constituency Vote Share

LDP 53.5%
HP 39.7%
JCP 6.3%
Others 0.5%

A few of the HP or CDP voters clearly voted for the LDP candidate. Maybe one factor is that all LDP candidates in this prefecture are members of moderate-to-conservative LDP factions (Nukaga and Tanigaki).
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2017, 07:32:07 AM »

Tochigi Prefecture

PR Vote Share

LDP+KP 46.9%
HP+CDP 43.3%
JCP+SDP 6.2%
JRP 3.1%
Others 0.5%

Constituency Vote Share

LDP 54.3%
HP+Pro-CDP independents 38.7%
JCP 6.8% (No candidate in 2nd district)
Others 0.2%

LDP won District 1,3,4,5. Pro-CDP independent won 2nd district, which JCP didn't field a candidate. Since Pro-CDP independent won by 6.8%, he could have lost his seat if JCP had run its candidate.
LDP candidates in District 1, 4, 5 are former or current ministers, so their personal appeal may have drawn votes from HP or CDP voters.
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2017, 07:52:45 AM »
« Edited: October 28, 2017, 07:55:56 AM by December 26 »

Akita Prefecture

PR Vote Share

LDP+KP 48.8%
HP+CDP 39.4%
JCP+SDP 7.8%
JRP 2.7%
Others 1.4%

District Vote Share

LDP 50.1%
HP 42.3%
JCP 7.6%

Compared to Yamagata, LDP+KP's PR vote share went up and District Vote Share went down.
All district races were 3-way competitions by LDP, HP, and JCP. LDP candidates won all.

1st: LDP candidate won by 17%. I don't understand why HP replaced the DP MP who lost the previous election by 6% (he faced a harder battle because both JCP and SDP fielded their candidates last time) with a weak former Upper House MP who lost last year's Upper House election when joint opposition candidates won all Tohoku seats. HP nominated the replaced DP MP for No. 1 of the Tohoku PR list, so he cruised to re-election.

2nd: Same candidates from last election. While LDP MP won by 17% last time, he barely won this year by 1%. HP candidate is now a newcomer to the lower house because he survived through the PR slate.

3rd: Same candidates from last election. LDP MP won by 3% last time, 6% this time.
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2017, 06:07:25 AM »

Hokkaido

PR Vote Share

LDP+KP 39.8%
CDP+HP 38.6%
JCP+SDP 9.9%
Pro-LDP regional party 8.4%
JRP 2.8%
Others 0.5%

District Vote Share

LDP+KP 47.8%
Opposition 52.2% (CDP 35.8%, HP 9.4%, JCP 5.9%, Others 1.1%)


LDP ran all candidates except 10th, where KP instead ran a candidate.
CDP ran as unified opposition candidate in District 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11.
JCP ran as unified opposition candidate in District 7.
Both CDP and HP ran candidate in District 4.
Both HP and JCP ran candidate in District 2, 9, 12.

LDP+KP won District 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12.
CDP won District 1, 3, 5, 8, 11.
HP placed a distant 3rd in District 4 and lost District 2, 9, 12.
HP's unpopularity in Hokkaido can be suggested by the fact that JCP candidates in District 2, 9, and 12's vote totals averaged 16.8% (20.8% in 2nd, 15.3% in 9th, 13.3% in 12th).
If joint opposition candidates ran in all districts, LDP could've lost 2nd, 4th, and 9th.
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Cape Verde
asianzzang
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Posts: 89
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2017, 03:57:51 PM »

Fukushima Prefecture

PR Vote Share

LDP+KP 43.0%
HP+CDP 41.4%
JCP+SDP 11.1%
JRP 3.3%
Others 1.2%

Constituency Vote Share

LDP 47.1%
HP+Pro-HP Indep+Pro-CDP Indep 44.0%
JCP+SDP 7.8% (JCP candidate in District 2, 3, 4, 5 & SDP candidate in District 4, 5)
JRP 1.1% (Candidate in District 2)

LDP won District 2, 4, 5. Pro-HP independent won District 3. Pro-CDP independent won District 1.
LDP's high voting share can be explained by good performance in 5th District. HP made a mistake by nominating an MP who had been planning to retire from politics. He wasn't even an MP in the first place but took his seat three months ago when an another MP retired to successfully run for the mayor of Sendai.
LDP won only by 0.8% in 4th District, thanks to a three-way vote split.
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