Japan Oct 22 2017 (user search)
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Author Topic: Japan Oct 22 2017  (Read 40941 times)
Vega
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,253
United States


« on: October 01, 2017, 06:12:25 PM »

DP MP 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) which has become the de facto leader of the DP Left has indicated he will form a new party for those DP MPs that choose not to join HP.  The new Party's name will most likely be 民主党 or Democratic Party.  It seems Edano will be holding talks with DP leader Maehara as well as HP to see what can be done to accommodate as much DP MPs as possible within HP and failing that at least have some sort of tactical alliance between the new party (most likely called DPJ?) and HP.

Why?
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2017, 04:11:39 PM »

Koike open to backing PM from LDP.  This is the opposite of Koizumi's 2001 slogan "vote LDP so I can destroy LDP" where it is now Koike 2017 "vote for the anti-LDP to get a LDP government" 

Probably an attempt by her to attract LDP voters, you know, to make the opposition more palatable.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2017, 09:08:33 AM »

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2017, 03:14:06 PM »

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.   

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2017, 10:02:16 PM »

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.    

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?

Japanese are generally satisfied with their social support systems, and there is broad consensus on maintaining the status quo with only slight tweaks. Taxes are an area with more potential room for disagreement, but Japan has a relatively flat income distribution, Japan has a relatively progressive tax system for a developed country (top marginal rate income tax rate of 45%, has an estate tax up to 55%, no special treatment for dividends or capital gains, etc.), and there isn't much appetite for radical reconfigurations of the system one way or another.

Interesting, thanks for the information.

Also, as I don't think it has been mentioned yet, a couple of bigwigs from the DPJ and DP are now with the CDP - Naoto Kan and Banri Kaeida are both minted CDP candidates.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2017, 01:48:15 PM »

I'm pretty confident that most of the HP will fold into the CDP at some point after the election. The CDP proved itself competent campaigners and a competent party, beyond just the Communists switching to them, they are also bringing on some undecideds, which is huge.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2017, 03:18:23 PM »

If CDP and HP were magically merged into one party with one list, and merging all of their support together, what would the results look like?

See: Democratic Party, DPJ (2014 and 2016), worse if Koike was backing them, as she has turned out to be a toxic influence. The new party would lose the soft LDP support that the HP has and the fairly substantial left-wing vote that the CDP has.

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Vega
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2017, 11:31:02 AM »

No.  Other than 6 prefectures lost 1 seat each

Ah, o.k - so only those small modifications? Nowhere gained seats?

Yes, a more complete redistricting will be done following the 2020 census.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2017, 09:26:25 PM »

Jaichind, from the list of websites you posted for results, which one is the best? I like NHK's visual presentation template personally.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2017, 11:51:55 AM »

Best guess now is LDP-KP at 313 seats plus 4 pro-LDP independents of which 3 will be retrospectively nominated by LDP.

That would just barely give them a 2/3rds majority.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2017, 12:28:38 PM »

10 seats are left - any idea on how they will fall?
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2017, 01:53:42 PM »

Only 5 seats left, with the CDP now at 54 seats, assuring that they will be the largest opposition party.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2017, 03:39:23 PM »

1 Kyūshū PR seat was called for the JRP, as predicted, bringing the total outstanding seats down to 4.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2017, 04:23:30 PM »

HP should take the blame for this fiasco, as they were the group who split the DP up.

I think it was more an issue of various DP members hitching their wagon to the Koike train and that didn't go as well as they hoped. Jaichind is correct in his observation about how the split may have been the most optimal and the best of both worlds.

As we were talking about earlier in this thread, I imagine that the HP will cease to exist within the week and most of the former DP members will shuffle into the CDP. Others might form new parties, and there is some chance that a rump HP sticks around for a little while.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2017, 04:44:42 PM »

LDP lost the battleground of Aichi 7 to the ex-DP Independent incumbent by 0.4%

Speaking of Aichi, what was going on in Aichi 12? Kazuhiko Shigetoku was an ex-JRP member, if I recall correctly. 
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2017, 04:49:09 PM »

HP should take the blame for this fiasco, as they were the group who split the DP up.

Yes.  But once HP was formed what actually took place might have been one of the more optimal situation to fight against LDP-KP.  Having a separate HP and CDP PR list allowed the DP Right and DP Left  a reason to come out to vote.  In many but not all the battleground seats they got it down to at worse LDP vs HP vs JCP or LDP vs CDP.  At least they mostly avoided LDP vs HP vs CDP, LDP vs CDP vs JCP, and the most disastrous LDP vs HP vs CDP vs JCP in competitive races.

Had most races devolved into LDP vs HP vs CDP then LDP itself would have gotten over 300 seats with this turnout pattern.

If it's so optimal why is their talk of "DP Right" (may as well just be called the Right, given the party they've merged into) slithering back to the CDP, and what will become of the CDP's electoral alliances in such a scenario.

Primarily because of the success of the CDP in this election, which will bring a lot of the others who left the DP for the HP, mostly because they thought a Koike party would do better than the DP would have, back into the fold. It is a good question should a merger like that go through what will come of the pacts and alliances with the other parties of the left, and at this point, I'm not sure. I would hope and it would make the most since for the CDP to be pretty stringent about their demands and rules for joining.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2017, 06:49:05 PM »

I took the liberty of starting a new (the old one was getting rather lengthy and it's nice to have a new discussion following a new election) General Discussion thread for Japan.

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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2017, 10:42:03 PM »


Yep, this is still a great place for discussing the results, maps, and other solid data breakdowns.
 
Also, what is the SDP's plan at this point? It seems they have too much pride and tradition to merge into another party, but they're really at the bottom of the barrel now.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2017, 08:40:34 AM »

Out of curiosity, where there any Japanese Christians elected? In particular, any Japanese Mormons? I know that before there was an election, there was Keiko Itokazu, a Japanese Mormon serving as an independent. And obviously, while there's only a small population of Japanese Christians in general, they have outsized influence, if I recall correctly.

Well, Aso Taro, who is a prominent rival to Abe Shinzo within the LDP and former and possible future PM, is a Catholic.

Itokazu Keiko is in the House of Councillors so was not up for reelection this time and is still in the legislature.

Not to disagree with the spirit of your post, but I can't see this happening, given that Aso is almost 80.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2017, 08:52:40 PM »

How does KP always have such a high hit rate, regardless of hat type of election it is?

Also, what group would have Aichi 7's independent fit in?

KP always wins because it only runs there it is certain it can win.  It has to have a hit rate of 100% to show its power to itself and LDP.  It is in constant fear that it will be labeled a cult and be banned. So being allied to the ruling party and showing its value is something it feels it must contentiously do. 

Aichi 7th district I labeled as LDP vs Ind(OPPN).  Ind(OPPN) means joint opposition candidate (HP CDP SDP JCP)

Really? I know that some do call it a cult, but they are at risk of being banned should they not align with the ruling party?
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