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jaichind
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« Reply #625 on: October 24, 2017, 01:38:08 PM »

Turnout ended up being 53.68%

Turnout table 2017 vs 2014 vs 2012

           2017    2014      2012
11:00  12.24     11.08 14.03
14:00  21.83     22.66 27.40
16:00  26.31     29.11 34.87
18:00  29.99     34.98 41.77
19:30  31.82     37.72 45.42
20:00  33.67     40.01   47.82
Early   20.01     12.65   11.50
Final    53.68     52.66 59.32
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #626 on: October 24, 2017, 01:55:01 PM »

I see that Naoto Kan took his district seat back.

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #627 on: October 24, 2017, 02:00:14 PM »

My finished map, as before I recommend viewing in another tab due to the image being larger then what Atlas allows

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jaichind
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« Reply #628 on: October 24, 2017, 02:15:27 PM »

I see that Naoto Kan took his district seat back.

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Yep.  He lost it in 2012 and 2014 but was elected on the PR slate.  I called this one correctly and was one of my riskier calls since HP was also running even as JCP vacated the seat for him.  I gambled that HP collapse will see him through which it did. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #629 on: October 24, 2017, 07:44:57 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2017, 07:35:05 PM by jaichind »

I did my computation of FPTP district vote shares

                              Candidates       Win       Vote share     Vote share in seats
                                                                                          Contested
LDP                           277              215          47.82%              49.69%
LDP(Retroactive)           3                  3            0.39%              42.07%
LDP rebel                      9                  1            0.81%              28.53%
KP                                9                  8            1.50%              53.04%
HRP                            35                  0            0.29%                2.38%
JRP                             47                  3            3.18%              19.83%
HP                            198                18          20.64%               29.68%                    
Ind(HP)                      11                  8            2.06%               50.03%
Ind(LP)                        2                  2             0.41%              57.61%
Ind(OPPN)                  18                11             3.18%              50.24%
Ind(CDP)                      9                  1             0.68%              21.86%
CDP                            63                17            8.53%               35.81%
SDP                            20                 1             1.17%               17.97%
JCP                           206                 1             9.02%               12.86%
Ind(Right)                     7                 0             0.14%                 5.97%
Ind(Left)                     13                 0             0.15%                 3.84%
Others                          9                 0             0.03%                 1.12%

So the Greater LDP bloc (LDP, LDP(Retroactive), LDP rebels, KP) wins 50.53%, a bit higher than I thought.

Note Ind(HP), Ind(OPPN) and Ind(LP) are a self-selecting group.  They had enough confidence to take on LDP-KP with all of some of opposition support from the outside without the backup plan of being on PR list.

Ind(OPPN) and Ind(LP) usually faced LDP-KP 1-on-1.
Ind(HP) usually faced LDP vs Ind(HP) vs JCP
Ind(CDP) is a different set of ex-DP candidates who were weaker and that HP did not want and CDP did not want to bother having to spend resources on but were happy to back from the outside.  They often faced HP and even JCP competition so their hit rate and vote share are fairly low.

We can also do various breakdowns of seat types within each party

                              Candidates       Win       Vote share     Vote share in seats
                                                                                          Contested
JRP                             47                3              3.18%              19.83%
                                                          To
JRP (w HP backing)      18                3              2.06%              35.36%   (this includes Osaka)
JRP (wo HP backing)    29                0              1.12%               10.99%

JRP competitive if backed by HP (which includes Osaka) but not competitive if it does not have HP support.



                              Candidates       Win       Vote share     Vote share in seats
                                                                                          Contested
HP                            198                18          20.64%               29.68%    
                                                         To
HP (no JRP,CDP)         133                16         15.83%                34.85%          
HP (w JRP,CDP)            65                 2           4.81%                 19.93%

If HP faces LDP with at worse JCP/SDP it has a fighting chance with a competitive vote share.  If it faces JRP and/or CDP or an ex-DP independent along with LDP then its vote share is not competitive.   It only won 2 such seats only because of the weakness of LDP in those 2 districts.


                              Candidates       Win       Vote share     Vote share in seats
                                                                                          Contested
JCP                           206                 1             9.02%               12.86%
                                                        To
JCP(vs LDP alone)        14                 0             1.06%               27.17%
JCP(vs HP/JRP no Left)159                 1             6.80%              12.73%
JCP(w Left)                  33                 0             1.16%                9.36%

JCP's vote share rises to the high 20s when it faces LDP-KP 1-on-1.  These tend to be strong LDP districts anyway.  When JCP has to face another Left party (CDP, SDP) then its vote share tends to converge to its PR vote share (7.90%).  When JCP faces LDP along with HP/JRP then its vote share is almost 14% which means it is pulling in CDP defectors to the harm of HP/JRP.


                              Candidates       Win       Vote share     Vote share in seats
                                                                                          Contested
CDP                            63                17            8.53%               35.81%
                                                       To
CDP(vs LDP alone)       15                 5            2.62%               46.81%
CDP(wo JCP)               27               12            3.96%               38.99%
CDP(w JCP)                 48                0             1.95%               24.17%

CDP's strike rate is not that much higher when it faces LDP 1-on-1 versus having HP/JRP in the fray as well.  HP/JRP in such situations seems to have drawn some LDP vote as well.  For the rest, when JCP is in the fray CDP has no chance while when JCP is not in the fray the CDP has a fighting chance with a large vote share even if it is not facing LDP alone.


                              Candidates       Win       Vote share     Vote share in seats
                                                                                          Contested
SDP                            20                 1             1.17%               17.97%
                                                        To
SDP(vs LDP alone)         5                 1             0.51%               37.92%
SDP(not vs LDP alone)  15                 0             0.65%              12.69%

SDP has a higher ceiling than JCP when it faces LDP.  But when SDP pitted against LDP along with other opposition parties (HP CDP JRP etc etc) it seems perform the same as JCP.


                              Candidates       Win       Vote share     Vote share in seats
                                                                                          Contested
Ind(CDP)                      9                  1             0.68%              21.86%
                                                        To
Ind(CDP)(wo JCP)         4                  1             0.41%              29.10%
Ind(CDP)(w JCP)           5                  0             0.27%              15.80%

Ind(CDP) poorer performance has a lot to do with the fact that JCP was running on over half the seats it contested.  Its vote share for seats that JCP did not contest was a lot higher where it even managed to win a seat.
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Lach
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« Reply #630 on: October 24, 2017, 07:52:23 PM »

How does KP always have such a high hit rate, regardless of hat type of election it is?

Also, what group would have Aichi 7's independent fit in?
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jaichind
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« Reply #631 on: October 24, 2017, 08:17:06 PM »

How does KP always have such a high hit rate, regardless of hat type of election it is?

Also, what group would have Aichi 7's independent fit in?

KP always wins because it only runs there it is certain it can win.  It has to have a hit rate of 100% to show its power to itself and LDP.  It is in constant fear that it will be labeled a cult and be banned. So being allied to the ruling party and showing its value is something it feels it must contentiously do. 

Aichi 7th district I labeled as LDP vs Ind(OPPN).  Ind(OPPN) means joint opposition candidate (HP CDP SDP JCP)
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Vega
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« Reply #632 on: October 24, 2017, 08:52:40 PM »

How does KP always have such a high hit rate, regardless of hat type of election it is?

Also, what group would have Aichi 7's independent fit in?

KP always wins because it only runs there it is certain it can win.  It has to have a hit rate of 100% to show its power to itself and LDP.  It is in constant fear that it will be labeled a cult and be banned. So being allied to the ruling party and showing its value is something it feels it must contentiously do. 

Aichi 7th district I labeled as LDP vs Ind(OPPN).  Ind(OPPN) means joint opposition candidate (HP CDP SDP JCP)

Really? I know that some do call it a cult, but they are at risk of being banned should they not align with the ruling party?
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jaichind
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« Reply #633 on: October 24, 2017, 08:58:37 PM »

KP always wins because it only runs there it is certain it can win.  It has to have a hit rate of 100% to show its power to itself and LDP.  It is in constant fear that it will be labeled a cult and be banned. So being allied to the ruling party and showing its value is something it feels it must contentiously do. 

Aichi 7th district I labeled as LDP vs Ind(OPPN).  Ind(OPPN) means joint opposition candidate (HP CDP SDP JCP)

Really? I know that some do call it a cult, but they are at risk of being banned should they not align with the ruling party?

Ever since the 1995 Aum Shinrikyo cult incident KP has been in fear of that the tighter anti-cult laws would be used against them.  Note it was after 1995 that KP which since its funding has been anti-LDP shifted to a pro-LDP position.  I think in reality there is no such risk but KP seems to be fearful by looking at their actions.
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jaichind
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« Reply #634 on: October 25, 2017, 08:31:02 AM »

ANN exit poll on PR by age group



LDP - red
KP - pink
HP - dark green
JRP - light green
CDP - blue
JCP - purple

LDP-KP stronger with the youth and gets weaker with age but reverses in the 70s.  CDP-JCP gets stronger with age again with reversal at 70s.  HP-JRP seems to be the same for all age groups.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #635 on: October 25, 2017, 11:31:18 AM »

ANN exit poll on PR by age group



LDP - red
KP - pink
HP - dark green
JRP - light green
CDP - blue
JCP - purple

LDP-KP stronger with the youth and gets weaker with age but reverses in the 70s.  CDP-JCP gets stronger with age again with reversal at 70s.  HP-JRP seems to be the same for all age groups.

Interesting as isn't the LDP the more conservative of the main parties?  In the English speaking world at least you have the opposite where parties on the left tend to do well amongst the youngest while as one ages they become more right wing.  UK being the most extreme example where Labour won by 40 points amongst millennials but Tories won by 40 amongst seniors.  Most aren't quite as extreme as that but still seems to buck the trend somewhat in the West.
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« Reply #636 on: October 25, 2017, 01:37:58 PM »

ANN exit poll on PR by age group



LDP - red
KP - pink
HP - dark green
JRP - light green
CDP - blue
JCP - purple

I can't see the picture :-(...
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Zuza
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« Reply #637 on: October 25, 2017, 01:51:35 PM »

ANN exit poll on PR by age group



LDP - red
KP - pink
HP - dark green
JRP - light green
CDP - blue
JCP - purple

LDP-KP stronger with the youth and gets weaker with age but reverses in the 70s.  CDP-JCP gets stronger with age again with reversal at 70s.  HP-JRP seems to be the same for all age groups.

Interesting as isn't the LDP the more conservative of the main parties?  In the English speaking world at least you have the opposite where parties on the left tend to do well amongst the youngest while as one ages they become more right wing.  UK being the most extreme example where Labour won by 40 points amongst millennials but Tories won by 40 amongst seniors.  Most aren't quite as extreme as that but still seems to buck the trend somewhat in the West.

Yes, I find this very unusual too. In the West left-wing and liberal parties clearly have younger voters than conservative ones. In many post-Communist countries communist and socialist parties are more popular among older voters, but this is understandable since these parties (which are usually successors to ruling parties of the Communist era) are in many ways actually conservative and their main voting base are nostalgic elderly people. But in Japan LDP is consistently the most conservative and right-wing party on all issues (except tiny and irrelevant PJK).
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jaichind
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« Reply #638 on: October 25, 2017, 01:57:54 PM »


Interesting as isn't the LDP the more conservative of the main parties?  In the English speaking world at least you have the opposite where parties on the left tend to do well amongst the youngest while as one ages they become more right wing.  UK being the most extreme example where Labour won by 40 points amongst millennials but Tories won by 40 amongst seniors.  Most aren't quite as extreme as that but still seems to buck the trend somewhat in the West.

Well, economically LDP is not that much more Right wing than HP or even CDP.  On social issues LDP are more Center-Right.  JRP is actually the more economically Right wing party.  The Japan youth tends to support LDP more because it seems to them LDP represents status quo and establishment.  The economy has been stagnant enough for the youth at this stage to be more focused on survival and less about growth. Ergo then tend to be less risk averse.  Given that situation LDP is the way for them to go.
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« Reply #639 on: October 25, 2017, 02:14:15 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2017, 02:18:05 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

To hazard a guess: I imagine that young Japanese are far less likely to be strict pacifists and, thus, are liable to be sympathetic to Abe's push for constitutional reforms, which can be framed as "modernizing" Japan, whereas elderly Japanese - at least, the left-inclined ones - who grew up in the shadow of WWII, are far more likely to be strict pacifists or to take issue with militarism. Further, Abenomics is rather radical in its thrust - constituting a break from ill-advised half-measures and the schizoid nature of post-90s crisis management in Japan - so I can see why young people in Japan would back the LDP, who are seeking to bring Japan out of its ~30 year period of malaise.

The LDP is a terrible party and Abe is a bit of a nutcase but they deserve credit for reviving the Japanese economy.

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« Reply #640 on: October 25, 2017, 02:54:29 PM »

Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        8           0         8     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  11           0       11      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
             

The joint oppisition candidates. Were they nominated by all opposition parties?

What about elected "indepentets" in the latest say three elections? Is it possible to divide them in the way above?
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jaichind
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« Reply #641 on: October 25, 2017, 02:56:04 PM »

Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        8           0         8     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  11           0       11      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
             

The joint oppisition candidates. Were they nominated by all opposition parties?

What about elected "indepentets" in the latest say three elections? Is it possible to divide them in the way above?

I define Ind(OPPN)  as independents that were able to face LDP 1-on-1 with  at least implicit support by all opposition parties (HP CDP SDP JCP).   
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jaichind
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« Reply #642 on: October 25, 2017, 02:56:57 PM »

I did some prelim analysis of PR vs district vote shares. Will post them soon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #643 on: October 25, 2017, 08:05:31 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2017, 04:23:15 AM by jaichind »

Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        8           0         8     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  11           0       11      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              

The joint oppisition candidates. Were they nominated by all opposition parties?

What about elected "indepentets" in the latest say three elections? Is it possible to divide them in the way above?

As for independents for last few elections I can use similar categorization:
2009: 2 Ind(DPJ), 4 LDP rebels
2012: 4 LDP rebels, 1 Ind(LDP)
2014: 3 LDP rebels,  2 LDP(Retroactive), 2 Ind(DPJ), 1 Ind(OPPN), 1 Ind(DPJ-JIP)
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« Reply #644 on: October 26, 2017, 01:07:34 AM »

Wkikipedia has already counted the 4 LDP-rebels as LDP members hence it gives LDP 4 more seats than you.

Wich partygroups (caucuses) did the independents in the layest elections join?
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jaichind
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« Reply #645 on: October 26, 2017, 04:35:54 AM »

Wkikipedia has already counted the 4 LDP-rebels as LDP members hence it gives LDP 4 more seats than you.

Wich partygroups (caucuses) did the independents in the layest elections join?

My table has 4 less LDP MPs than Wikipedia because of

a) I have 3 LDP(Retroactive) which Wikipedia has as just LDP.
b) LDP won one more PR seat than it deserved because DCP failed to nominate enough PR candidates.  I made my chart to reflect "what the voters intended."  See below for details

What if, say, the CDP got a seat total out of the 11 PR blocks that was higher then the amount of candidates they actually put up for election? Let's say they got 80 seats in total. Would the 2 seats that they don't have candidates for just not be filled, or would another party win them?

This seems to have taken place in the 東海 (Tokai) PR section.  Based on the votes it should have been

LDP   7
HP    5
CDP  5
KP    2
JCP   1
JRP   1

But because CDP failed to nominate enough candidates on the PR slate the LDP won an extra seat from CDP on this technicality so it ends up being

LDP   8
HP    5
CDP  4
KP    2
JCP   1
JRP    1

So if you go by what the voters intended and if you filter out this retroactive nomination stuff then LDP-KP really won 309 seats which is below 2/3 majority !!
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jaichind
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« Reply #646 on: October 26, 2017, 09:54:32 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2017, 09:08:09 PM by jaichind »

Did some initial analysis of how the district vote swung from 2014.  Since the greater Greater LDP bloc (LDP, LDP(Retroactive), LDP rebels, KP) competed everywhere it is the best to look at how that block swung from 2014.  

In 2017 the Greater LDP bloc won 50.53% of the district vote while the Greater LDP bloc won 50.73% in 2014.  In terms of PR LDP-KP went from 46.82% in 2014 to 45.79% a negative swing of 1.03%.

Of the 289 district seats, we can start to separate them out depending on the circumstances.  

First in 6 prefectures (青森(Aomori),岩手(Iwate), 三重(Mie), 奈良(Nara), 熊本(Kumamoto), 鹿児島(Kagoshima) ) which make up 21 seats in 2017 lost 1 seat each from 2014 which makes district-wise swings impossible to calculate.  In this block of seats the breakdown is (16 LDP+ 5 anti LDP with LDP+ vote share at 52.90%  In 2014 it was 19 LDP 1 FPG 7 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 51.12% or 53.73% if you include the vote share of the LDP backed FPG winner.)  So we should take them out.  That leaves us with 268 seats.

First we have 9 seats where the "structure" seat changed.  Some are where the old anti-LDP incumbent defected to the LDP or where an LDP rebel joined HP, or the status of a major anti-LDP rebel changed (either from one in 2014 to none in 2017 or vice versa.)  In this block of seats the breakdown is (8 LDP+  1 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 57.05% while in 2014 it was 6 LDP+ 1 FPG and 2 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 53.27%).  These seats are impossible to do any apples to apples comparison of swings.

Then we have 4 seats where it was somewhat competitive in 2014 because a mainstream opposition candidate ran but now only JCP runs to face LDP-KP.  Because JCP is not acceptable to most voters such a district should seat very strong pro-LDP swing.  And it did.  The swing toward LDP+ in these 4 seats is 12.30%.  In this block of seats the breakdown is (4 LDP+ 0 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 75.19% while in 2014 it was 4 LDP+ 0 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 62.89%)

Then we have 20 fairly non-competitive seats where it is the other way around.  In 2014 the only anti-LDP opposition as JCP and now given the mainstream opposition is more prepared there is an mainstream opposition candidate (HP CDP or some ex-DP independent) in the fray.  Since in 2014 the anti-JCP vote when LDP but now a mainstream opposition candidate is running we expect a swing against LDP+ in these 20 districts.  And that is the case as the swing against LDP+ in these 20 seats is 10.74%. In this block of seats the breakdown is (20 LDP+, 0 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 64.92% while in 2014 it was 20 LDP+ 0 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 75.66%)  

Then we have 11 seats where due to retirement of old 2014 DPJ candidate or the chaos of the split of DP into HP and DCP left the opposition (most of the time HP) without a candidate that has good grassroots support in the district.  In these 11 districts one would expect a swing toward LDP+ which is the case as the swing in favor of the LDP+ in these 11 seats is 5.18%.   In this block of seats the breakdown is (10 LDP+, 1 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 55.83% while in 2014 it was 9 LDP+, 2 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 50.65%)  

Then we have 24 seats where in 2014 there was strong Far Right Third pole candidates (most PFG) where they did not run in 2017.  Other that some seats in Osaka where that vote might have gone to JRP and in Tokyo where they might have gone HP, most of this vote should have gone to LDP in 2017.  We would expect LDP+ to get a positive swing in these 24 seats which would be the case as the swing toward LDP+ in these 24 seats is 3.62%.   In this block of seats the breakdown is (20 LDP+, 4 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 46.75% while in 2014 it was 20 LDP+, 4 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 43.13%)  

Then there are 26 seats where the number of anti-LDP candidates has increased.  This will in theory help LDP to win the seat but should have the effect of lowering the vote share of LDP+.  In this case it does as the swing against the LDP in the 26 seats is 4.52%  In this block of seats the breakdown is (25 LDP+, 1 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 47.90% while in 2014 it was 23 LDP+ 3 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 52.42% )  

Contrary to the media narrative about how the split opposition gave the LDP the victory. There are 43 seats where the number of opposition candidates went down.    This makes LDP defeat more likely but should have the effect of increasing the LDP+ vote share.  And it does but only by a small margin as the prospect of LDP defeat will push up anti-LDP voter turnout.  The swing toward LDP+ in these 43 seats is 1.66%.  In this block of seats the breakdown is (24 LDP+, 19 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 47.59% while in 2014 it was 31 LDP+ 12 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 45.93%)  

That leaves 131 seats where when compared to 2014 we have a apples-to-apples comparison of the LDP+ vote share.  The swing in these 131 seats is 1.05% swing away from LDP+ which is very similar to the LDP-KP PR vote share swing of 1.03% away from LDP-KP.  In this block of seats the breakdown is (100 LDP+, 31 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 48.66% while in 2014 it was 104 LDP+ 27 anti-LDP with LDP+ vote share at 49.71% )  
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #647 on: October 26, 2017, 10:13:03 PM »

To hazard a guess: I imagine that young Japanese are far less likely to be strict pacifists and, thus, are liable to be sympathetic to Abe's push for constitutional reforms, which can be framed as "modernizing" Japan, whereas elderly Japanese - at least, the left-inclined ones - who grew up in the shadow of WWII, are far more likely to be strict pacifists or to take issue with militarism. Further, Abenomics is rather radical in its thrust - constituting a break from ill-advised half-measures and the schizoid nature of post-90s crisis management in Japan - so I can see why young people in Japan would back the LDP, who are seeking to bring Japan out of its ~30 year period of malaise.

The LDP is a terrible party and Abe is a bit of a nutcase but they deserve credit for reviving the Japanese economy.



Hazarding to guess, I'd speculate that conservative Japanese have more children than liberal ones. Thus, each successive generation, reflecting the mores and values of their parents, is more conservative than the last.

Israel and Turkey is seeing that phenomena.
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Cape Verde
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« Reply #648 on: October 26, 2017, 10:58:38 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2017, 11:00:48 PM by December 26 »

Yamagata Prefecture

PR Vote Share

LDP+KP 46.5%
HP+CDP 41.0%
JCP+SDP 8.4%
JRP 2.9%
Others 1.2%

Constituency Vote Share

LDP 53.5%
HP 39.7%
JCP 6.3%
Others 0.5%

A few of the HP or CDP voters clearly voted for the LDP candidate. Maybe one factor is that all LDP candidates in this prefecture are members of moderate-to-conservative LDP factions (Nukaga and Tanigaki).
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #649 on: October 26, 2017, 11:56:16 PM »

To hazard a guess: I imagine that young Japanese are far less likely to be strict pacifists and, thus, are liable to be sympathetic to Abe's push for constitutional reforms, which can be framed as "modernizing" Japan, whereas elderly Japanese - at least, the left-inclined ones - who grew up in the shadow of WWII, are far more likely to be strict pacifists or to take issue with militarism. Further, Abenomics is rather radical in its thrust - constituting a break from ill-advised half-measures and the schizoid nature of post-90s crisis management in Japan - so I can see why young people in Japan would back the LDP, who are seeking to bring Japan out of its ~30 year period of malaise.

The LDP is a terrible party and Abe is a bit of a nutcase but they deserve credit for reviving the Japanese economy.



I think a better explanation is that turnout among the youngest age groups is utterly dire so those who do show up are unusually 'committed'.

Although the successes of the Abe government are undoubtedly factors as well.
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