Japan Oct 22 2017

[Oryxslayer]

Something to note here is that HP is struggling to reach its pre-election levels of deserters. That makes it incredibly likely that candidates return to the CDP post-election.

[jaichind]

LDP-KP on its way of a clean sweep of 兵庫(Hyōgo).  But that was expected.  

[Lachi]

Maehara holds his seat

[jaichind]

Something to note here is that HP is struggling to reach its pre-election levels of deserters. That makes it incredibly likely that candidates return to the CDP post-election.

Correct.  In fact I think HP might end up with close to zero winners that were not part of DP in the first place.  I am sure a few might stick around.

[Cape Verde]

NHK Tokyo Prediction.

CDP target seats
Likely CDP: 7th
Lean CDP: 5th, 18th, 22th
Tossup: 1st, 16th
Lean LDP: 2nd, 6th, 19th

Wakasa Masaru expected to finIsh 3rd.
HP expected to lose every Tokyo seat except 21st (Lean HP)

[Lachi]

CDP will probably end up with 90-100 by next week.

[jaichind]

Ozawa wins, of course, as even JCP vacated his seat so he takes on LDP 1-on-1.

[Lachi]

Was 東京10区 expected to be close?

[Cape Verde]

Was 東京10区 expected to be close?

HP was losing ground, but at least everyone expected Wakasa Masaru to finish 2nd.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

That maybe will be stupid question but what were the main issues during the campaign? Is Article 9 revision still important in public debate?

[Lachi]

That maybe will be stupid question but what were the main issues during the campaign? Is Article 9 revision still important in public debate?

It was one of, if not THE most important issue in the campaign.

[jaichind]

Was 東京10区 expected to be close?

HP was losing ground, but at least everyone expected Wakasa Masaru to finish 2nd.

Yeah.  He was suppose to win by a mile.  He is a ex-LDP MP and part of the Koike faction in LDP.  Him going to third is a major humiliation of Koike.

[jaichind]

Overall NHK is more aggressive on making calls in the PR section.  Asahi more aggressive in making calls in FPTP district seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Has any vote actually been counted? I'm clicking around on the districts and I only saw one in Hokkaido at 2% or so of the voted counted.

[jaichind]

Has any vote actually been counted? I'm clicking around on the districts and I only saw one in Hokkaido at 2% or so of the voted counted.

Very little. Most "results" are just based on exit polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Has any vote actually been counted? I'm clicking around on the districts and I only saw one in Hokkaido at 2% or so of the voted counted.

Very little. Most "results" are just based on exit polls.

I thought as much, just wanted confirmation.

[Lachi]

So that means that, theoretically, the exit polls could sill be wrong and that LDP-KP could be underperforming at an even worse level?

[jaichind]

Frankly, looking at some of the NHK exist polls for various seats, it does seem that that the CDP vote are going HP instead of JCP in a bunch of them.  If so the main reason for HP's poorer performance is just there are less anti-LDP votes out there due to lower turnout.

[jaichind]

So that means that, theoretically, the exit polls could sill be wrong and that LDP-KP could be underperforming at an even worse level?

Correct.  In fact looking at the "calls" so far I think there is more downside to LDP-KP performance at this stage than upside.

[Oryxslayer]

So that means that, theoretically, the exit polls could sill be wrong and that LDP-KP could be underperforming at an even worse level?

Yes, though I think this would simply mean a bunch of the grey "marginal" seats don't go LDP - currently its just safe seats being projected I think.

[Lachi]

What do you think the results could have been had there not been a Typhoon about to hit, or it was well off the Japan coast?

[jaichind]

What do you think the results could have been had there not been a Typhoon about to hit, or it was well off the Japan coast?

We will have to see the real results.  But if LDP-KP could not get to 2/3 majority even with such a lower turnout I failed to see why higher turnout would not turn out badly for them.

[jaichind]

Updated turnout chart

           2017    2014      2012
11:00  12.24     11.08　14.03
14:00  21.83     22.66　27.40
16:00  26.31     29.11　34.87
18:00  29.99     34.98　41.77
19:30  31.82     37.72　45.42
20:00               40.01   47.82
Early   20.01     12.65   11.50
Final  　            52.66　59.32

So final turnout should be around 53.5%

[Lachi]

Updated turnout chart

           2017    2014      2012
11:00  12.24     11.08　14.03
14:00  21.83     22.66　27.40
16:00  26.31     29.11　34.87
18:00  29.99     34.98　41.77
19:30  31.82     37.72　45.42
20:00               40.01   47.82
Early   20.01     12.65   11.50
Final  　            52.66　59.32

So final turnout should be around 53.5%

The results don't feel that way though... It's all so strange...

[jaichind]

So far on NHK it is

LDP  185
KP     25
JRP     4
HP    29
CDP  33
SDP    1
JCP     7
Ind   16

Asahi it is

LDP          199
KP              24
JRP              5
HP             32
CDP           32
SDP             1
JCP              7
Ind(LDP)      1
Ind(OPPN)  14