WA-8: Reichert retiring

[krazen1211]

The Democrat party is being crushed in the 8th district!

Link

[Bidenworth2020]

The Democrat party is being crushed in the 8th district!

Link

how about you go check their rating on 538, huh?

[Holmes]

The Democrat party is being crushed in the 8th district!

Link

Well, the polls were right about AL-SEN, so this checks out.

[Keep cool-idge]

I know these polls are from 2006 but this was back when the 8th was more democrat https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/washington_8-8.html

The dems ended up losing in a good year for them.

[junior chįmp]

I know these polls are from 2006 but this was back when the 8th was more democrat https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/washington_8-8.html

The dems ended up losing in a good year for them.

Those the same polls that said Hillary would win rotflmao

[Holmes]

I know these polls are from 2006 but this was back when the 8th was more democrat https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/washington_8-8.html

The dems ended up losing in a good year for them.

You're doing the same thing you did for the Virginia governor race.

[Keep cool-idge]

I know these polls are from 2006 but this was back when the 8th was more democrat https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/washington_8-8.html

The dems ended up losing in a good year for them.

You're doing the same thing you did for the Virginia governor race.

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

[Brittain33]

Northern Virginia is totally different then the Seattle suburbs

Huh?

[Virginiá]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Northern Virginia is totally different then the Seattle suburbs

Huh?

Democrats won every single county except one in the Census definition of Seattle metropolitan area and they won that county in 2012. But if DMV suburbs are too Democratic for Greedo how about Atlanta's GA-06 Handel won statewide and hold a county commissioner seat there and barely beat Ossoff who is the definition of a Generic Democrat .

[Keep cool-idge]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

I agree if Rossi hadn’t gotten in I would put this race at pure toss up but the fact he is running and it’s a clown car race for the democrats and the fact the Seattle suburbs seem to be smarter then Northern Virginia is why rossi wins 51-53% of the vote.

What I mean by the Seattle suburbs being smarter is that in the 45th State senate race trump only got 28% and Romney only got 40% while is this race back in November the gop got 45%. That area Is one of the more democrat areas in the 8th so it’s a good sign for Rossi.

[Keep cool-idge]

Northern Virginia is totally different then the Seattle suburbs

Huh?

Democrats won every single county except one in the Census definition of Seattle metropolitan area and they won that county in 2012. But if DMV suburbs are too Democratic for Greedo how about Atlanta's GA-06 Handel won statewide and hold a county commissioner seat there and barely beat Ossoff who is the definition of a Generic Democrat .

The 8th is leaning democrat suburbs of Seattle the suburbs and exurbs in pierce county and super conservative central Washington. Totally different than GA-6 or VA-10.

[Keep cool-idge]

Tilt to Lean R. Especially - in present configuration with "east of Cascades" counties.

[Seattle]

Northern Virginia is totally different then the Seattle suburbs

Huh?

Democrats won every single county except one in the Census definition of Seattle metropolitan area and they won that county in 2012. But if DMV suburbs are too Democratic for Greedo how about Atlanta's GA-06 Handel won statewide and hold a county commissioner seat there and barely beat Ossoff who is the definition of a Generic Democrat .

The 8th is leaning democrat suburbs of Seattle the suburbs and exurbs in pierce county and super conservative central Washington. Totally different than GA-6 or VA-10.

You're right, NOVA's suburbs are different from Seattle's. Seattle's are considerably more D to the extent that exurban areas vote 50-50.

I think the election is a tossup, with Rossi slightly favored as of now. We don't know who the D candidate will be. That might not even matter if a D +10 environment holds, but I'll hedge my bets for now.

[Keep cool-idge]

Northern Virginia is totally different then the Seattle suburbs

Huh?

Democrats won every single county except one in the Census definition of Seattle metropolitan area and they won that county in 2012. But if DMV suburbs are too Democratic for Greedo how about Atlanta's GA-06 Handel won statewide and hold a county commissioner seat there and barely beat Ossoff who is the definition of a Generic Democrat .

The 8th is leaning democrat suburbs of Seattle the suburbs and exurbs in pierce county and super conservative central Washington. Totally different than GA-6 or VA-10.

You're right, NOVA's suburbs are different from Seattle's. Seattle's are considerably more D to the extent that exurban areas vote 50-50.

I think the election is a tossup, with Rossi slightly favored as of now. We don't know who the D candidate will be. That might not even matter if a D +10 environment holds, but I'll hedge my bets for now.

Well the thing about the WA-8 suburbs is that down ballot they are way closer again just look at what I have said about the 45th. WA-8 was supposedly really interesting in 2016 supposedly King county trended democrat and pierce county republican I’m taking about the WA-8 part.

[KingSweden]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

[Keep cool-idge]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

I get the sense that the doctor who is endorsed by Emily’s list is going to lose if she is nominated just like burner.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

This seat was open in 2008 when Reichert first won the district as an open seat. This certainly doesn't mean Rossi will win though and I definitely wouldn't say he is some big favorite.

[IceSpear]

The Democrat party is being crushed in the 8th district!

Link

So their generic ballot lead statewide in Washington is less than it is nationally? Junk poll!

[Keep cool-idge]

The Democrat party is being crushed in the 8th district!

Link

So their generic ballot lead statewide in Washington is less than it is nationally? Junk poll!

The Washington legislative and congressional lines are drawn to protect in incumbents so that could be part of it.

[Virginiá]

This seat was open in 2008 when Reichert first won the district as an open seat. This certainly doesn't mean Rossi will win though and I definitely wouldn't say he is some big favorite.

He was first elected to WA-8 in 2004 tho

[Pragmatic Conservative]

This seat was open in 2008 when Reichert first won the district as an open seat. This certainly doesn't mean Rossi will win though and I definitely wouldn't say he is some big favorite.

He was first elected to WA-8 in 2004 tho

Thanks for correcting that some reason I seemed to remember seeing somewhere that he first ran in 2008. Still the past results do indicate republicans can win here in a tough environment for them. I don’t really agree with Greedo that WA-8 is lean R but I also think it’s silly for democrats to call this seat certain to flip or likely D. 

[KingSweden]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

I get the sense that the doctor who is endorsed by Emily’s list is going to lose if she is nominated just like burner.

Schrier? She might do okay. It’s hard to be worse than Burner. I still think Rittereiser is the best candidate for us

[smoltchanov]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

I get the sense that the doctor who is endorsed by Emily’s list is going to lose if she is nominated just like burner.

Schrier? She might do okay. It’s hard to be worse than Burner. I still think Rittereiser is the best candidate for us

IMHO, the best candidate for Democrats would be moderate on fiscal issues (some reasonable fiscal conservative streak is rather welcome here) with strong liberal/libertarian leanings on social ones, and good connections (district isn't cheap and requires a lot of money for a candidate to be successfull). If there is one  in the present "pack" he/she will gave good chances, especially if the "wave" goes unabated. But, if leading Democrat will be "rabid progressive" - then i would bet my money on Rossi, despite him not being "the best" possible candidate either (IMHO, someone like Litzow/ Hill would be better, but - alas...)

[Keep cool-idge]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

I get the sense that the doctor who is endorsed by Emily’s list is going to lose if she is nominated just like burner.

Schrier? She might do okay. It’s hard to be worse than Burner. I still think Rittereiser is the best candidate for us

IMHO, the best candidate for Democrats would be moderate on fiscal issues (some reasonable fiscal conservative streak is rather welcome here) with strong liberal/libertarian leanings on social ones, and good connections (district isn't cheap and requires a lot of money for a candidate to be successfull). If there is one  in the present "pack" he/she will gave good chances, especially if the "wave" goes unabated. But, if leading Democrat will be "rabid progressive" - then i would bet my money on Rossi, despite him not being "the best" possible candidate either (IMHO, someone like Litzow/ Hill would be better, but - alas...)