MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50%

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Junk poll.

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I dont think McCaskill beats Akin without the gaffe (and the publicity the gaffe got) at all. After that idiotic statement he also got crippled with fundraising.

As for the poll, no tabs no respect for the poll. But it does line up with what id expect, still no proof.

She outperformed the RCP polling average by almost 10 points. IIRC, when Akin was leading, he was only up by single digits.

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McCaskill absolutely would have lost, even his weak campaign would have been enough to cost had it not been for the gaffe, his money absolutely dried up afterwards. He was leading, and beginning to pull away in some polls. In fact the only reason mccaskill won by so much is all the undecideds broke for her at the end.

Many Republicans were leading in 2012 until... well, they weren't. Think of Tommy Thompson or Rick Berg. Candidates don't win by 16 points just because of one gaffe of their opponent. Akin's campaign made her look like a moderate, which was far more devastating than anything Akin said. 2012 was a massive Democratic wave year, no Democratic incumbent (including Tester) was going to lose that year. Yeah, undecideds broke for her at the end, but undecideds broke Democratic virtually everywhere else as well. Republicans made a ton of mistakes in 2012, and 2018 is their chance to prove that they have learned the lessons from 2012 (because if they haven't, MO will probably the only state they flip - and they'll lose NV, AZ and probably one or two other seats at the same time). Don't let anyone tell you that Democrats can't flip the Senate in 2018, they can if Republicans take things for granted again.

The only flippable republican seats are AZ, NV, and UT. Saying Dems can win in TX, TN, NE, MS or WY is like saying Sheldon Whitehouse can lose reelection. Of course, if Jones pulls off the AL special and there's some other special election, then the Dems would have a shot, as long as they only lost MO - if Donnelly is losing, Dems probably aren't winning Utah either, and then it would be 4 pickups, 2 losses, which comes out to a 50-50 Collins Majority.

^Yeah, it would be some combination of winning the special election in AL/UT if there's a three-way race/Flake's seat/Heller's seat/a potential AZ special election. Extremely unlikely, and I don't think it will happen. But Republicans can't take anything for granted.

TX, TN, NE, MS or WY aren't going to flip, of course.

If I may explain on behalf of Wulfric and TN Volunteer, as a Utahan...

A lot of people don't buy that Utah is anything other than Safe R. I think Likely R is a fair rating. Orrin Hatch is a weak incumbent with terrible approval ratings, and multiple polls show that most Utahans would prefer that he retire. If (IF) the Dem nominee is someone competent like, say, Matheson, it could be in play. A possible third-party run by McMuffin also makes it worth watching.

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The fact that some Dems people seriously think TX AL is even remotely in play is quite hilarious.