MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50% (user search)
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  MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50% (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50%  (Read 3777 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 01, 2017, 10:25:00 AM »

Senate

50% Josh Hawley (R)
45% Claire McCaskill (D, inc.)

Auditor

47% Todd Richardson (R)
43% Nicole Galloway (D, inc.)

Trump approval: 48/45 (+3)

Link.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2017, 05:17:15 PM »
« Edited: September 01, 2017, 05:38:11 PM by MT Treasurer »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Blunt is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2022 if Trump wins reelection, but I think he'll retire anyway. As for this poll... McCaskill is a uniquely bad fit for the state, so not sure why so many people are surprised by this. I also disagree with the consensus that this race will be "very close and competitive", but we'll see. IN is looking a lot better for Ds than MO anyway IMO.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2017, 06:12:34 PM »

As much as I despise McCaskill, I believe she would have beaten Akin even without that gaffe (though it would have been closer - probably a 6- to 8-point win or so). People forget that this guy ran a terrible campaign even before the gaffe happened, and there's a reson why Akin was her preferred candidate from the very beginning. Also, no Democratic incumbent was really going to lose in 2012 anyway, except MAYBE Nelson in NE. Honestly, 2012 was an absolute disaster for Republicans at all levels.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2017, 01:16:05 PM »

McCaskill absolutely would have lost, even his weak campaign would have been enough to cost had it not been for the gaffe, his money absolutely dried up afterwards. He was leading, and beginning to pull away in some polls. In fact the only reason mccaskill won by so much is all the undecideds broke for her at the end.

Many Republicans were leading in 2012 until... well, they weren't. Think of Tommy Thompson or Rick Berg. Candidates don't win by 16 points just because of one gaffe of their opponent. Akin's campaign made her look like a moderate, which was far more devastating than anything Akin said. 2012 was a massive Democratic wave year, no Democratic incumbent (including Tester) was going to lose that year. Yeah, undecideds broke for her at the end, but undecideds broke Democratic virtually everywhere else as well. Republicans made a ton of mistakes in 2012, and 2018 is their chance to prove that they have learned the lessons from 2012 (because if they haven't, MO will probably the only state they flip - and they'll lose NV, AZ and probably one or two other seats at the same time). Don't let anyone tell you that Democrats can't flip the Senate in 2018, they can if Republicans take things for granted again.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2017, 05:18:30 PM »

^Yeah, it would be some combination of winning the special election in AL/UT if there's a three-way race/Flake's seat/Heller's seat/a potential AZ special election. Extremely unlikely, and I don't think it will happen. But Republicans can't take anything for granted.

TX, TN, NE, MS or WY aren't going to flip, of course.
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