MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

FTFY

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

FTFY

Declaring a race dead for the incumbent of an opposition party in a year likely to swing hard against the party in power is absolute bonkers. No amount of polling or ill-informed punditry will change that fact.

Your begging for the Missouri Democratic Party to be a thing is admirable, but pointless.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Blunt is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2022 if Trump wins reelection, but I think he'll retire anyway. As for this poll... McCaskill is a uniquely bad fit for the state, so not sure why so many people are surprised by this. I also disagree with the consensus that this race will be "very close and competitive", but we'll see. IN is looking a lot better for Ds than MO anyway IMO.

I won't be surprised at all if Donnelly pulls through. Unlike McCaskill he is a genuine moderate, and he might have won in '12 even without the rape gaffes.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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This is awesome. I think McCaskill's certainly at a disadvantage, but if she paints her opponent as an out-of touch, Ivy elite, she just might get the margins she needs in the rural areas of the state to win.

The obvious counter to the whole "You bent the rules!!!" argument is: "How does that change the fact that you're an out of touch liberal?"

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

FTFY

Declaring a race dead for the incumbent of an opposition party in a year likely to swing hard against the party in power is absolute bonkers. No amount of polling or ill-informed punditry will change that fact.

Your begging for the Missouri Democratic Party to be a thing is admirable, but pointless.

Rest assured that I do not care about the Missouri Democratic Party in this context absent the consequences the Senate seat has for the country at large. You do not know what is going to happen, and I do not know what is going to happen in this race, so you can drop that omniscient tone of yours.

We don't know in the sense that we don't know if Tim Kaine or Angus King will be reelected. Yes, something miraculous could happen to save McCaskill, most likely Petersen winning the R nomination, but it would be just that - a miracle.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCaskill absolutely would have lost, even his weak campaign would have been enough to cost had it not been for the gaffe, his money absolutely dried up afterwards. He was leading, and beginning to pull away in some polls. In fact the only reason mccaskill won by so much is all the undecideds broke for her at the end.

Many Republicans were leading in 2012 until... well, they weren't. Think of Tommy Thompson or Rick Berg. Candidates don't win by 16 points just because of one gaffe of their opponent. Akin's campaign made her look like a moderate, which was far more devastating than anything Akin said. 2012 was a massive Democratic wave year, no Democratic incumbent (including Tester) was going to lose that year. Yeah, undecideds broke for her at the end, but undecideds broke Democratic virtually everywhere else as well. Republicans made a ton of mistakes in 2012, and 2018 is their chance to prove that they have learned the lessons from 2012 (because if they haven't, MO will probably the only state they flip - and they'll lose NV, AZ and probably one or two other seats at the same time). Don't let anyone tell you that Democrats can't flip the Senate in 2018, they can if Republicans take things for granted again.

The only flippable republican seats are AZ, NV, and UT. Saying Dems can win in TX, TN, NE, MS or WY is like saying Sheldon Whitehouse can lose reelection. Of course, if Jones pulls off the AL special and there's some other special election, then the Dems would have a shot, as long as they only lost MO - if Donnelly is losing, Dems probably aren't winning Utah either, and then it would be 4 pickups, 2 losses, which comes out to a 50-50 Collins Majority.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The fact that some Dems seriously think TX is even remotely in play is quite hilarious.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The fact that some Dems seriously think TX is even remotely in play is quite hilarious.

I don't think it's in play. That's why I said realistic hopes are to aim for a 50/50 Senate tie.

The fact that the race even receives a passing mention is hilarious.