Will Weld break 40%?

[Smash255]

The more interesting question might be if he wins Nassau and Suffolk counties and Staten Island.

I'd say no for Nassau but don't know about the other two.

Nassau county no, Staten Island & Suffolk are possiblle athough I would say still would lean towards Spitzer (will be fairly close).  A Weld type candidate could do decent here, Golisano would rip into his margins upstate (due to social conservatives). 

Either way Spitzer is unbeatable so it doesn't really matter at this point.  However a problem the Republicans run into is ithe differences within their own ranks in different parts of the state.  A socially moderate to liberal Republican can do decently in Staten Island, Westchester & Long Island, but would have some issues from upstate conservatives if someone like Golisano ran on a 3rd party.  They run a more mainline conservative to appease the upstate Republicans than the downstate Republicans (Long Island, Westchester & Staten Island)  flee towards the Dems

[Smash255]

Could be wrong but I'd expect someone like Weld to have more appeal in a place like Suffolk than a place like Staten Island.

Staten Island has traditonally been more Republican than Suffolk

[Smash255]

No,  Spitzer is just too strong, also Weld could be hurt by Upstate Conservative Republicans who vote 3rd party, though I think Spitzer will probably top 60% anyway

[Smash255]

Either way Spitzer is unbeatable

What kind of informed politico can truthfully say that they believe a canidate is "unbeatable". There have been so many surprise upsets and near misses in recent memory.

At this point, I believe Spitzer will win, and by a healthy margin. But is he "unbeatable"? No one is..

Barring some major scandal he is.  When someone as well known as Spitzer is has disapprovals in the teens & generally has an approval- dispproval gap of 50% he is virtually impossible to beat, the only one with a chane is Rudy & he isn't running.

[Smash255]

Either way Spitzer is unbeatable

What kind of informed politico can truthfully say that they believe a canidate is "unbeatable". There have been so many surprise upsets and near misses in recent memory.

At this point, I believe Spitzer will win, and by a healthy margin. But is he "unbeatable"? No one is..

Barring some major scandal he is.  When someone as well known as Spitzer is has disapprovals in the teens & generally has an approval- dispproval gap of 50% he is virtually impossible to beat, the only one with a chane is Rudy & he isn't running.

This reminds me of a year back when people told me "Toomey could never beat Specter.  Well, He might not of, but it certainly would not have taken much.

You really can't compare.  Spitzer is very popular in the state now.  Even when the talk that Toomey couldn't beat Specter in the primary, Specter was someone that many PA republicans had mixed views on.  He sure as hell didn't have the +45- +50% net approval among his own party that Spitzer has now statewide.  Not saying it will stay that insanley strong throughout, but Spitzer is a much more popular figure statewide in NY than Specter ever was among PA Republicans