|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 03, 2020, 09:52:51 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virgini)
  Will Weld break 40%?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Poll
Question: Will Weld break 40%?
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 29

Author Topic: Will Weld break 40%?  (Read 5216 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: August 21, 2005, 06:43:24 pm »

and we all know a 10 point gap never closes. 

Presumably Senator Bowles told you that? Smiley

that's right.  Smiley

by the way, bowles is set to become president of the 16 campus unc system.  a pretty prestigious job.  perhaps his political career isnt over yet after all.

Bowles will run for senate once more, probably in 2008 if Dole retires.  I don't think he wins however.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,951


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: August 22, 2005, 12:11:32 am »


What kind of informed politico can truthfully say that they believe a canidate is "unbeatable". There have been so many surprise upsets and near misses in recent memory.

At this point, I believe Spitzer will win, and by a healthy margin. But is he "unbeatable"? No one is..

Barring some major scandal he is.  When someone as well known as Spitzer is has disapprovals in the teens & generally has an approval- dispproval gap of 50% he is virtually impossible to beat, the only one with a chane is Rudy & he isn't running.

This reminds me of a year back when people told me "Toomey could never beat Specter.  Well, He might not of, but it certainly would not have taken much.

You really can't compare.  Spitzer is very popular in the state now.  Even when the talk that Toomey couldn't beat Specter in the primary, Specter was someone that many PA republicans had mixed views on.  He sure as hell didn't have the +45- +50% net approval among his own party that Spitzer has now statewide.  Not saying it will stay that insanley strong throughout, but Spitzer is a much more popular figure statewide in NY than Specter ever was among PA Republicans
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,266


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: August 22, 2005, 01:04:38 am »

Spitzer is already at 60%. The best Weld could hope for is like a 60-39 Spitzer win.
Logged
YRABNNRM
YoungRepub
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,688
United States
Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: August 22, 2005, 01:52:53 am »

Spitzer is already at 60%. The best Weld could hope for is like a 60-39 Spitzer win.

Yea because poll numbers can't change...
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,266


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: August 22, 2005, 02:14:09 am »

Spitzer is already at 60%. The best Weld could hope for is like a 60-39 Spitzer win.

Yea because poll numbers can't change...

I think I'm being generous assuming that all of the undeciededs break for Weld, except that Conservative party nominee will get something too. Let's face it, a social moderate who had some beers with Kerry when he was running against him is not getting the Conservative party nomination.
Logged
ATFFL
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,756
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: August 22, 2005, 02:25:37 am »

Weld has very little chance of winning.  Far more likely is Spitzer loses it somehow.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: August 22, 2005, 02:36:02 am »

Who do you think Weld voted for in 2004?
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,403
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: August 22, 2005, 02:58:54 am »

Out of curiosity, if Weld won, would there be any other instance in history where a person has been governor of more than one state in his political career?
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: August 22, 2005, 03:04:15 am »

Out of curiosity, if Weld won, would there be any other instance in history where a person has been governor of more than one state in his political career?

I think NixonNow mentioned Sam Houston (TN and TX).
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,403
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: August 22, 2005, 03:30:07 am »

Out of curiosity, if Weld won, would there be any other instance in history where a person has been governor of more than one state in his political career?

I think NixonNow mentioned Sam Houston (TN and TX).

Ah, okay, so it wouldn't be a ground-breaking achievement then. Smiley
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,588


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: August 22, 2005, 07:22:00 am »


bush.

i saw him interviewed during the campaign.  he didnt have too many flattering things to say about kerry.

im pretty sure he was also at the 04 republican convention.
Logged
Virginian87
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,602
Political Matrix
E: -3.55, S: 2.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: August 22, 2005, 10:13:40 am »

Under current conditions and barring some major scandal, he'll get about 40%, tops.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,602


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: August 22, 2005, 11:34:42 am »

I think Obama was more or less unbeatable, considering that he was running in a heavily Democratic state and was a strong candidate. He won with something like 70% of the vote. Who could the GOP have fielded against him?
Logged
giving birth to thunder
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,953
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: August 22, 2005, 11:56:20 am »

Let's pretend there was some House seat. The first poll from it said that the incumbent had a 60-20 lead over his likely challenger. Wouldn't most agree the incumbent would be a shoo-in? Or that polls could change and the challenger could still somehow close that 40 point gap.

And if I remember correct, Spitzer-Weld poll numbers now are about equal to what the Bush-Kerry poll numbers were in Utah.

Do the math.
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,588


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: August 22, 2005, 12:21:28 pm »

Let's pretend there was some House seat. The first poll from it said that the incumbent had a 60-20 lead over his likely challenger. Wouldn't most agree the incumbent would be a shoo-in? Or that polls could change and the challenger could still somehow close that 40 point gap.

only one problem with that analysis.....this isnt a house seat.
Logged
giving birth to thunder
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,953
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: August 22, 2005, 12:28:59 pm »

Yet it's not much different.

You know how all the Republicans here would be acting if Santorum had a 40 point lead on his likely opponent and Democrats argued the guy still had a chance.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: August 22, 2005, 02:52:33 pm »

The problem with your analysis, BRTD, is that the House has an incumbency rate upwards of 90%.

Governorships and Senate seats change much, much more often than House seats, which almost never flip unless  the incumbent is very unpopular or the challenger gets an astounding amount of media coverage (hard to get in a House race).
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,654


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: August 22, 2005, 03:25:04 pm »

I think Obama was more or less unbeatable, considering that he was running in a heavily Democratic state and was a strong candidate. He won with something like 70% of the vote. Who could the GOP have fielded against him?

Nobody would have gotten a lesser percentage of the vote than Alan Keyes, nobody.

Even a slightly respectable candidate would have been able to get above 30% of the vote.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,266


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: August 22, 2005, 03:27:28 pm »

The problem with your analysis, BRTD, is that the House has an incumbency rate upwards of 90%.

Governorships and Senate seats change much, much more often than House seats, which almost never flip unless  the incumbent is very unpopular or the challenger gets an astounding amount of media coverage (hard to get in a House race).

Santorum is a Senator. Some years a lot of those get tossed, like 1980, 1986, 1994, 2000.
Logged
Hitchabrut
republicanjew18
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,674


Political Matrix
E: 8.38, S: 7.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: August 22, 2005, 03:53:26 pm »

Could be wrong but I'd expect someone like Weld to have more appeal in a place like Suffolk than a place like Staten Island.

True analysis.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines