No one was going to beat Bush in 04 just a few years after 9/11. In hindsight it's remarkable Democrats were so convinced it was a winnable election. Kerry did about as well as was possible.
Nah, just flip OH and Kerry/the Democrat wins, even without the PV (would have been intersting if W won 2000 without the PV and then lost 2004 with the PV). 2004 was winnable. In Kerry's position, I would have picked General Wesley Clark as my running mate to gain more national security expertise on the ticket, similar what Obama did when he chose Joe Biden.