2016 democratic primary without Bernie
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  2016 democratic primary without Bernie
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Canis
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« on: August 28, 2017, 09:14:23 AM »

So title what does the map look like and who takes bernies place as progressive running against Hillary and also no Biden or Warren so just O'malley Chafee and Webb Vs Clinton
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2017, 10:52:28 AM »



Fmr. Sen./SoS/FLOTUS Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
Fmr. Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA)
Fmr. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
Fmr. Gov./Sen. Lincoln Chafee (D-RI)

And this is being quite generous to Webb/O'Malley/Chafee, as I could plausibly see a 50-state blowout by Clinton. As shown in the map, Webb could potentially get a couple states off of Blue Dog appeal, strong dislike for Clinton in WV, and being from VA. He might also be able to make states like TN remotely competitive, but hardly. I have O'Malley winning Maryland, somewhat out of pity, but Clinton could easily win there. O'Malley is the only one ideologically who could really stand a chance with the national Democratic electorate (Webb and Chafee are just too conservative), but he's so generic and unable to generate hype to the point where he wouldn't really get anywhere even though his policy positions could be popular. Chafee could win RI if he's lucky but get absolutely crushed everywhere else.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2017, 04:03:47 PM »

You'd need a credible candidate like Biden. O'Malley, Webb and Chafee were non-starters.

And this is being quite generous to Webb/O'Malley/Chafee, as I could plausibly see a 50-state blowout by Clinton.

Yep. Pretty much like Gore in 2000, despite the whole Bill Bradley hype.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2017, 07:54:57 PM »

I know the scenario says no Biden...but without a credible challenger to Hillary, I think it's more likely Biden jumps in.

Biden would win in that scenario.

Without Biden, I imagine someone like Ellison jumps in, and gets blown out (and finishes behind O'Malley in Iowa and New Hampshire, but does better in South Carolina, before being forced out).
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2017, 03:54:49 PM »

Worst case scenario for Clinton: O'Malley wins Nevada, Maryland, Montana, Florida, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Washington. Webb wins Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.
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varesurgent
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2017, 05:04:27 PM »

Hillary goes 50/50. Bernie didn't stop the other candidates from gaining traction. They were just lousy.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2020, 10:42:50 PM »



Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) ✓
Fmr. Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
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