Four More Years - a 2016 Election Timeline
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Poll
Question: Who should Obama choose as his Running Mate?
#1
Tim Kaine
#2
Julian Castro
#3
Tom Vilsack
#4
Amy Klobucher
#5
Kirsten Gillibrand
#6
Al Franken
#7
Jeff Merkley
#8
John Hickenlooper
#9
Martin Heinrich
#10
WHO SHOULD TRUMP CHOOSE?
#11
Newt Gingrich
#12
Ben Carson
#13
Chris Christie
#14
Mary Fallin
#15
Scott Brown
#16
Marsha Blackburn
#17
Mike Flynn
#18
Jeff Sessions
#19
Jim Webb
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Author Topic: Four More Years - a 2016 Election Timeline  (Read 56064 times)
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« Reply #175 on: December 15, 2017, 11:38:25 AM »

So the 2008 GOP primaries go the same as real life?
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« Reply #176 on: December 15, 2017, 12:09:09 PM »

So the 2008 GOP primaries go the same as real life?

Yep. George Bush made noises of running throughout 2005-2006, but when his approvals started dipping he decided not to do it. The 2008 GOP primaries and the 2008 GE go as in OTL, which means that we're basically done with the specials.
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« Reply #177 on: December 15, 2017, 05:09:39 PM »

August 2nd, 2016

Huntsman announces James Stavridis as running mate on independent ticket, attempts to regain momentum



SALT LAKE CITY - In a campaign rally that drew a large crowd, bigger than he ever received during his 2012 Presidential run, former Governor Jon Huntsman announced that Retired Admiral James Stavridis, who was a top aide to the Navy Secretary in the Clinton administration and commanded NATO and U.S. forces in Europe, will join him on his independent ticket.

Stavridis lauded Huntsman as "a courageous, principled man with a deep, well-needed understanding of foreign policy and diplomacy." He briefly criticized the Obama administration's foreign policy as "ineffective", but focused most of his fire on the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, who he said would be "disastrous and dangerous" for America's valuable soft power and influence around the world. Huntsman echoed his running mate's statement, adding that they will be "a team of a diplomat and a soldier who will navigate the American ship through the stormy international waters."

The pick is expected to give Huntsman's independent bid some much-needed publicity, as well as a trusted figure to boost his support. It's a move to stop the former Governor's decline in the polls following the Republican and Democratic National Conventions boosting their nominees. While President Obama said that he respects Stavridis and hopes that he will help add to "an intelligent conversation" during the election, Donald Trump lashed out in a tweet, criticized by Democrats and moderate Republicans as disrespectful to the military:

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« Reply #178 on: December 15, 2017, 06:47:20 PM »

Here's to me hoping for chaos and to no one getting 270 votes.
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« Reply #179 on: December 15, 2017, 09:05:53 PM »

so Huntsman is basically just a stronger McMullin?
He's going to win Utah and maybe one other state. Greens should try to kick Stein out, seeing as how she completely died in the polls after the leaked image.
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« Reply #180 on: December 23, 2017, 07:42:28 AM »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 07:44:32 AM by Parrotguy »

August 7th, 2016

Despite controversy, Green Party nominates Jill Stein for President, Ajamu Baraka for Vice President



HOUSTON - Despite a last-minute attempt to defeat her by rivals within the party, who claimed that her dismal polling numbers and unpopularity made her a bad candidate, the Green Party of the United States formally nominated its 2012 nominee, Jill Stein, as Presidential nominee and "human rights" activist Ajamu Baraka as its Vice Presidential nominee.

The convention in Houston was held under the shadow of recent damaging controversy about Stein, as a photo leaked of her sitting on the same table with Russian President Vladimir Putin, withdrawn Trump running mate choice Mike Flynn and others in an RT galla, caused many progressives to accuse her of colluding with Russia to spoil the election for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Though initially considered a possible destination for defecting leftists who feel President Obama is a "corporatist", the photo leak and following controversy prompted progressive favourite Bernie Sanders to say that President Putin is a "terrible, authoritarian figure who cares nothing for human rights or the environment", and allude to Stein by saying that "those who pretend to care about these issues shouldn't support and celebrate his propaganda channel."

Sanders' comment seemed to be the nail in the coffin, and Stein's polling numbers fell down below the 1%, with only diehard Green Party activists remaining to support her. Despite this, the party did not budge and nominated Stein. More controversy arose in the convention itself, as Wikileaks' Julian Assange, who is widely accused of working for Putin and leaking Democratic emails to damage Obama and help Trump, addressed the adoring delegates.

New polling doesn't show any improvement for the Green Party, but it does show the Stavridis running-mate choice aiding Jon Huntsman and raising fears in the RNC that the Independent Conservative former Utah Governor will qualify for the debates:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 43%  (+1)
Undecided- 6%  (+-0)
OBAMA +8

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 47%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 35%  (-2)
Jon Huntsman- 10%  (+3)
Gary Johnson- 3%  (-1)
Jill Stein- 0%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5%  (+1)
OBAMA +12
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« Reply #181 on: December 23, 2017, 09:44:38 AM »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 10:01:03 AM by Parrotguy »

August 11th, 2016

Obama campaign announces 50-state strategy in the face of Trump polling weakness, hires Roby Mook as senior advisor



CHICAGO - The Obama 2016 Presidential campaign is getting into gear as the fall campaign nears. In a series of reforms, campaign manager Jim Messina and Chief Strategist David Axelrod have hired a bunch of new campaign aides and advisors, including former manager of Hillary Clinton's campaign in the 2016 Democratic primaries, Robby Mook.

Young and a rising star in the party, Mook was considered an able manager of the Clinton campaign, which in the end fell due to its candidate's inability to defeat President Obama rather than due to lackluster managing. According to official statements, Mook will advise the campaign on matters of "media and youth outreach", as well as manager turnout operations in various swingstates.

Additionally, the campaign has announced that in face of the strong polling gap opened by Obama against Trump, it will work on a 50-state strategy to appeal and turn out voters from every state, "from D.C. to Wyoming". When asked by reporters whether the campaign will concentrate on swingstates, Axelrod answered that "of course we will focus on the key states," but that "we're going to reach every state and every citizen, for downballot races but also for the race on the top of the ballot."

As the Obama campaign reforms to become a well-oiled machine, the Trump campaign seems to be struggling, with manager Corey Lewandowski resigning in June after being charged of physically assaulting a Breitbart reporter. His duties were, de-facto, assumed by campaign chairman Paul Manafort, but recent controversy surrounding Manafort's connections to Russia seems to be threatening his position, too.
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« Reply #182 on: December 23, 2017, 10:45:16 AM »
« Edited: December 23, 2017, 02:48:14 PM by Parrotguy »

August 19th, 2016

Trump campaign shakeup: Manafort out, Conway, Bannon in



NEW YORK CITY - Less than a week after the Obama campaign announced its ambitious 50-state plan, the Trump campaign, embroiled in controversy over both its candidate and key figures inside it, has undergone a shakeup of its own, trying to catch fire again and close the gap with the incumbent President.

And so, controversial campaign chairman and de-facto manager, Paul Manafort, who was accused of receiving millions of dollars off-the-books from former pro-Putin Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's party and of other connections with the Russian regime, announced his resignation as chairman of the campaign. Instead, his duties were taken by two figures hired two days before his resignation, pollster and Republican political operative Kelleyanne Connway as campaign manager and Steve Bannon, chief-editor of the controversial alt-right media source Breitbard News, as chief executive of the campaign.

The change is considered an attempt to both stabilize the campaign with strong figures that will keep the infighting at bay, and a signal that it will continue to be a negative campaign, bashing President Obama, the Democrats and even the Republican establishment, with Bannon often quoted saying fiery statements against the entire political establishment.

In a further attempt to gain momentum, the Trump campaign announced a host of co-chairs who will serve as surrogates and supporters, including former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY), Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK), former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), surgeon Ben Carson (R-MD) and former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR).

Shortly after, though, when the Obama campaign announced its own co-chairs, the Trump list seemed lackluster: it included popular, diverse figues such as Governor Deval Patrick (R-MA), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), former Senator Lincoln Chafee (D-RI), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), former Presidents Jimmy Carter (D-GA) and Bill Clinton (D-AR) and others. And thus, with Trump's aggressive campaign ready for collision with the strong campaign of the incumbent President, running for a historic third term, the fall campaign was set to begin.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 50%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 43%  (+-0)
Undecided- 7%  (+1)
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%  (-1)
Donald Trump- 35%  (+-0)
Jon Huntsman- 11%  (+1)
Gary Johnson- 3%  (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5%  (+-0)
OBAMA +11

NEXT UP: Downballot races. Stay tuned!
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« Reply #183 on: December 25, 2017, 07:39:52 AM »
« Edited: December 28, 2017, 12:35:00 AM by Parrotguy »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate



WASHINGTON, D.C. - With the race for the White House heating up, the Republicans and Democrats are focusing on another important battle- the one waged for control of both Houses of Congress, which could both go either way according to pundits, but especially the battle for the Senate. President Donald Trump is widely treated as an albatross around the neck of downballot Republicans, especially in swing races, causing many to distance themselves from their party's nominee, but it could be a dangerous game depressing their base's turnout, and Trump's presence is always there, looming behind every Republican, a big target for the Democrats. Let us examine the Senate races closely and see where each party can make gains.

Alabama
Richard Shelby (R) vs Ron Crumpton (D)
In Alabama, one of the most ruby-red states in the nation, Democrats aren't investing resources. Senator Richard Shelby, safe and popular, after easily turning back a conservative primary challenge from businessman Jonathan McConnell, is expected to cruise to an easy reelection over the Democratic nominee, marijuana legalization activist Ron Crumpton.
RATING: Safe R

Alaska
Lisa Murkowski (R) vs Joe Miller (L) vs Hollis French (D)
Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski is considered fairly safe in her reelection bid, however, she's threatened by a right-wing challenge from the nominee of the Libertarian Party, Attorney Joe Miller, who previously defeated her in the 2014 Republican primary only to lose to her write-in general election campaign. Additionally, Democratic former State Senator Hollis French is challenging her from the left, making the race a potentially perilous battle for the moderate Senator Murkowski.
RATING: Lean R

Arizona
John McCain (R) vs Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
In Arizona, Democratic see a prime pickup opportunity. They hope to exploit two factors and achieve an upset victory in a previously reliable Republican state- the state's trend to the left with a big hispanic population, and longtime incumbent John McCain defeating a bruising challenge from far right former State Senator Kelly Ward, as well as the backlash he faces due to his refusal to endorse Trump, who said that the 2008 Republican nominee is "not a hero" because he was captured. However, McCain is a popular and experienced politician, one of the Republican party's symbolic figures, and would be tough to defeat.
RATING: Lean R

Arkansas
John Boozman (R) vs Connor Elbridge (D)
In Arkansas, incumbent Senator John Boozman, having defeated Democratic former Senator Blanche Lincoln, is popular and polling very strongly. Despite rumours that one of the Democrats who lost their races in 2010 and 2014, Lincoln or former Senator Mark Pryor, might try to challenge Boozman, he only got a minor rival in the form of Democratic Attorney Connor Elbridge. With the national party barely investing in the race, Boozman is safe.
RATING: Safe R

California
Kamala Harris (D) vs Loretta Sanchez (D)
Two Democrats advanced to the runoff in California's nonpartisan blanket primary- State Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez. Harris, who has the support of the Obama campaign, is expected to defeat Sanchez, who has support from Clintonworld. Whatever happens, this race will be won by a Democrat.
RATING: Safe D

Colorado
Michael Bennet (D) vs Darryl Glenn (R)
Despite Colorado being, generally, a swingstate, incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is considered very popular and hard to beat. Thus, he got a fairly minor Republican rival in the form of El Passo County Comissioner Darryl Glenn. Additionally, Obama polls consistently well against Trump there. Still, this will be a race to watch due to Colorado's nature.
RATING: Likely D

Connecticut
Richard Blumenthal (D) vs Dan Carter (R)
In the Nutmeg State, Senator Richard Blumenthal is considered strong and popular. Despite the state's tedency to be receptive to moderate Republican candidates, State Senator Dan Carter is expected to lose quite handily due to a favourable environment for Democrats and Blumenthal's popularity.
RATING: Safe D

Florida
Marco Rubio (R) vs Gwen Graham (D)
In Florida, both the Republican and Democratic primaries were interesting. Incumbent Senator Marco Rubio, initially forsaking a reelection run in favour of a Presidential bid, changed his mind and managed to gain the Republican nomination, despite facing scrunity for, as his Democratic opponent called it, "lying to Florida voters". Meanwhile, former Representative and daughter of former Senator Bob Graham, Gwen Graham, surprisingly jumped into the race, despite speculations that she was aiming for a gubernatorial run in 2018. This was after initial Democratic frontrunner, Representative Patrick Murphy, was convinced to run for reelection in his Republican-leaning district instead, in order to increase the chances a Democrat would win there and help the party flip the House. Graham dispatched a primary rival in form of provocative far-left Representative Alan Grayson quite easily, and now she's hoping to challenge Rubio, frequently using his flip-flopping as an attack line and her family's deep roots and popularity in Florida as a way to attack him for "not caring" about the people of the state and using the Senate as a springboard for Presidential ambitios "from day one". Her attacks bruised Rubio, but he's still a popular Senator and a charismatic campaigner, so this is expected to be a very close race.
RATING: Tossup

Georgia
Johnny Isakson (R) vs Jason Carter (D)
Though initially considered likely to cruise to reelection, as Donald Trump's candidacy seemed to improve the prospects of a favourable national environment for Democrats, incumbent Republican Senator got a surprising and strong challenger- Jason Carter, a former State Senator, 2014 Gubernatorial candidate and grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. With this challenge and changing dempgraphics increasingly helping Democrats, this is expected to be a potentially tough race for Isakson, but the incumbent is a very strong and popular politician in his state, as well as a capable campaigner, and current polls show him leading solidly.
RATING: Likely R

Hawaii
Brian Schatz (D) vs John Carroll (R)
In Hawaii, a solid blue state, popular incumbent Senator Brian Schatz, a strong public speaker, is facing only a minor challenge from the much-older Republican former state legislator John Carroll. He's expected to easily cruise to reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Idaho
Mike Crapo (R) vs Jerry Sturgill (D)
Incumbent Senator Mike Crapo is expected to easily win the race in the Republican state of Idaho against businessman Jerry Sturgill, and Democrats aren't investing here.
RATING: Safe R

Illinois
Mark Kirk (R) vs Tammy Duckworth (D)
After shockingly winning the Senate race for Barack Obama's old seat in 2010, Mark Kirk was expected to be hard to defeat in 2016. However, rumours of health problems coupled with a badly-run campaign full of gaffes, as well as a strong and appealing candidate in Representative and disabled veteran Tammy Duckworth, are causing major problems for him, and Duckworth seems to have consistent leads in the polls.
RATING: Likely D
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« Reply #184 on: December 25, 2017, 08:42:52 AM »
« Edited: March 29, 2018, 06:02:10 AM by Parrotguy »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate (Part 2)

Indiana
Todd Young (R) vs Evan Bayh (D)
In another unexpected, prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, former Senator and Governor Evan Bayh entered the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Dan Coats. He faces a strong Republican challenger in Todd Young, however, and Bayh's baggage from his time in the D.C. lobbying business is expected to make this a close race despite initial polling leads for him.
RATING: Tossup

Iowa
Chuck Grassley (R) vs Tom Visack (D)
Initial polls were showing incumbent Senator Grassley easily leading over his likeliest challenger, former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge. However, when Agriculture Secretary and former Governor Tom Vilsack entered, reportedly with the urging of President Obama, the race suddenly became much closer. Both Grassley and Vilsack are very popular in their state, so this is definitely a race to watch.
RATING: Lean R

Kansas
Jerry Moran (R) vs Patrick Wiesner (D)
In another race where a Senator is expected to cruise for reelection without much of a challenge from the other party, popular incumbent Jerry Moran is challenged by Attorney Patrick Wiesner who isn't expected to make much of a splash.
RATING: Safe R

Kentucky
Rand Paul (R) vs Jim Gray (D)
Rand Paul's reelection bid in Republican-friendly Kentucky isn't expected to get too perilous, dsespite the tough candidacy of Lexingtom Mayor and the first openly gay major party nominee for Senate in the state, Jim Gray. However, in the right environment this could become closer , perhaps due to Paul's controversial views or the state's relative elasticity.
RATING: Likely R

Louisiana
John Neely Kennedy (R) vs Caroline Fayard (D) vs Foster Campbell (D) vs Charles Boustany (R) vs John Fleming (R) vs David Duke (R)
In Louisiana's jungle primary race to replace retiring Senator David Vitter (R), there are many serious contenders, though the leading candidates to qualify for the runoff are considered Kennedy, Campbell, Boustany and Fayard. But barring an upset with two Democrats advancing, or controversial former KKK grandwizard David Duke advancing against a Democrat, this race is considered likely to be won by whichever Republican gets to the runoff.
RATING: Likely R

Maryland
Chris Van Hollen (D) vs Kathy Szeliga (R)
In the race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski, the longest serving female Senator, Democrat Chris Van Hollen won a hard primary against Representative Donna Edwards. Now, he's likely to cruise to victory against Republican Delegate Kathy Szeliga in the blue state of Maryland.
RATING: Safe D

Missouri
Roy Blunt (R) vs Jason Kander (D)
Despite  the state's Republican lean, Senate and Gubernatorial races in Missouri were always a tight affair. This year, incumbent Senator Roy Blunt was widely expected to win a solid reelection with the power of incumbency. However, his opponent, Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander, a young veteran, has been running a strong and effective campaign, especially in comparison to Blunt's "sleepwalking" campaign, making this race closer and closer. Many Democrats are hopeful that Kander's youth, charisma and attractiveness can serve as a way to defeat the old Senator Blunt.
RATING: Tossup

Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs Joe Heck (R)
In Nevada, the race to replace retiring Senator Harry Reid is very close between former State Attorney Genral Catherine Cortez Masto and Representative Joe Heck. On the one hand, Masto is popular and charismatic, appealing to the state's large hispanic community. On the other hand, Heck's brand of moderate Republicanism is popular in Nevada, and his refusal to endorse Trump could help him, or harm him with his base. That remains to be seen.
RATING: Tossup

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte (R) vs Maggie Hassan (D)
Touted as a rising Republican star and a possible contender for the Presidency or Vice Presidency, Senator Kelly Ayotte is now fighting for her political life against the state's governor, Maggie Hassan. She's wading dangerous waters in her neutrality about Donald Trump, which could harm her with the base or help her with the state's large moderate, independent population. This is one of the closest races in the country right now.
RATING: Tossup

New York
Chuck Schumer(D) vs Wendy Long (R)
In the Empire State, Senator Chuck Schumer is not only very popular, but also destenied to become Democratic leader in the Senate, possibly Majority Leader of the stars align. New Yorkers are extremely unlikely to forsake this opportunity and elect his Republican opponent, attorney Wendy Long.
RATING: Safe D

North Carolina
Richard Burr (R) vs Kay Hagan (D)
The race in the Tar Heel state was close from the start, but when former Senator Kay Hagan, still popular despite a loss in 2014's unfavourable environment, entered, dispatching a primary challenge from former State Representative Deborah Ross, it became a tossup. Now, with Burr running a campaign considered lackluster by many, she even achieved a lead in some polls.
RATING: Tossup

North Dakota
John Hoeven (R) vs Eliot Glassheim (D-NPL)
In the red, oil-dependant state of North Dakota, incumbent Senator John Hoeven was never expected to have much trouble getting re-elected. But now, with Democrats using climate change as a key plank of their platform, he's expected to trounce former State Representative and Eliot Glassheim handily.
RATING: Safe R
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« Reply #185 on: December 25, 2017, 09:26:02 AM »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate (Part 3)

Ohio
Rob Portman (R) vs Betty Sutton (D)
Initially, former Governot Ted Strickland was considered the likeliest challenger for incumbent Republican Senator Rob Portman in Ohio, and many pundits expected it to be close. However, he then announced that he won't run, dealing a blow to an otherwise successful recruiting effort for Senate Democrats. Instead, former Representative Betty Sutton emerged victorious from a splintered field including Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfield, former Representative John Boccieri and former State Senator Nina Turner. The race is considered likely to go to Portman's way, but Sutton is running a strong campaign in this swingstate.
RATING: Lean R

Oklahoma
James Lankford (R) vs Mike Workman (D)
Incumbent Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma had only one person to worry about in his reelection bid- former Representative Dan Boren. Once Democrats failed to recruit him, all that was left for Lakford is to cruise to reelection against a minor challlenger, political consultant Mike Workman, and this is just what he's currently doing.
RATING: Safe R

Oregon
Ron Wyden (D) vs Mark Callahan (R)
In Oregon, a state that usually had competitive races for Senate and Governor, Republicans hoped to force Democrats on the defensive in order to reelect Senator Ron Wyden. However, aided by an effective campaign and a good national environment, the incumbent is expected to easily win reelection over a poor recruit, perennial candidate Mark Callahan.
RATING: Safe D

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey (R) vs Joe Sestak (D)
In one of the closest and most watched races in the country, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey, who's touting a moderate record despite trying to primary former Senator Arlen Specter from the right back in 2004, is struggling for his political life against strong Democratic opposition in a Democratic-leaning state. However, Joe Sestak, a retired Admiral and former Representative seeking a rematch after losing to Toomey in 2010, just got out of a bruising, hard-fought primary against Katie McGinty, who only endorsed him reluctantly.
RATING: Tossup

South Carolina
Tim Scott (R) vs Thomas Dixon (D)
While normally, Democrats would invest in the Senate race in a state like South Carolina, which has a large African American community, this year they're only presenting a minor challenger, pastor Thomas Dixon. This is because the incumbent, Tim Scott, is very popular and expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe R

South Dakota
John Thune (R) vs Tom Daschle (D)
In South Dakota, ranking Senate Republican John Thune, a popular incumbent in the state, was expected to quite easily win reelection. However, despite his previous reluctance, former Democratic Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle agreed to pleads from the Obama campaign to enter the race, and thus forced Republicans to spend efforts here. This is still considered an unlikely pickup for Democrats.
RATING: Likely R

Utah
Mike Lee (R) vs Misty Snow (D)
Though initially fearing a primary challenge, Utah Senator Mike Lee won the Republican nomination without competition. Now, he's facing the first transgender woman to be a major party's Senate nominee, grocery store clerk Misty Snow, a self described "Sanders Democrat", and is expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe R

Vermont
Patrick Leahy (D) vs Scott Milne (R)
In Bernie Sanders' homestate, the most senior Democratic Senator, Patrick Leahy, is running for reelection. Though his Republican opponent, former Gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne who barely lost to Govenor Shmulin in 2014, is considered strong, Leahy is likely to cruise to an easy reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Washington
Patty Murray (D) vs Chris Vance (R)
In Washington, just like in Oregon, Republicans hoped to present a strong challenge to ranking Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Former State Representative Chris Vance tried to do just that, but is considered a weak, barely-known candidate. Murray is expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson (R) vs Russ Feingold (D)
In another important Senate race, former Senator and progressive darling Russ Feingold is running against the one who defeated him in the Republican wave of 2010, Senator Ron Johnson. Feingold's popularity in Wisconsin and the state's Cemocratic lean in Presidential years are expected to make this race in Feingold's favour, but it's still not a race Democrats should treat unseriously.
RATING: Lean D
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« Reply #186 on: December 27, 2017, 11:01:20 AM »

They hired Mook? RIP Obama.
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« Reply #187 on: December 27, 2017, 03:48:11 PM »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.
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« Reply #188 on: December 27, 2017, 03:50:34 PM »

also, you accidentally said California instead of Colorado in the first Race for the Senate post.
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« Reply #189 on: December 27, 2017, 08:56:03 PM »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.
So they can each get 0.45% of the popular vote? Tongue
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« Reply #190 on: December 27, 2017, 09:12:10 PM »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.
So they can each get 0.45% of the popular vote? Tongue
it's what third parties do, right? Heck, he may even found his own party, and it replaces the Greens, we never know...
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« Reply #191 on: December 27, 2017, 09:14:43 PM »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.
So they can each get 0.45% of the popular vote? Tongue
it's what third parties do, right? Heck, he may even found his own party, and it replaces the Greens, we never know...
I guess there's the Justice Party for that if we get into the nitty gritty of micro parties. I'd imagine Glenn Beck and the "Truh Conservatives" still go for Castle.
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« Reply #192 on: December 28, 2017, 04:33:12 PM »

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.

Well, most Stein supporters still support her. The others either stay at home, or vote for various small parties, or support Obama. Remember, she got 0.36% of the vote in 2012, the 1% she got in 2016 wasn't the natural Green Party base but mainly due to Clinton's unpopularity. So while the photo harmed her, its impact isn't that huge, and a Kreml candidacy will probably fail to get much support or ballot access.
Also: Thanks for the interest, everyone! Governors post coming soon, and then the fall campaign- I anticipate reaching election night in a few weeks! Smiley
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« Reply #193 on: December 29, 2017, 01:15:46 AM »

Tom Daschle, lmao.
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« Reply #194 on: December 29, 2017, 10:10:02 AM »
« Edited: April 28, 2018, 03:05:28 PM by Parrotguy »

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Struggle for the Mansions (PART 1)



WASHINGTON, D.C. - While the battle for Congress occupies much of the attention of pundits, politicians and political observers, another important issue will be on the ballot in a dozen states come Nobember 8th- the election of their governors for the next four years. Here, the races seem more local than nationalized, and Trump's effect on the Republican candidates for office is less obvious, and depends on their willingness to embrace him. Let's observe the various races:

Delaware
John Carney (D) vs Colin Bonni (R)
The race to succeed term-limited Governor Jack Markell (D) was initially thought to be dominated by Delaware's then-Attorney General and son of the Vice President, Beau Biden. However, when tragedy struck and Biden died of brain cancer, U.S. Representative and former Lieutenant Governor John Carney ran for, and won, the Democratic nomination instead. The Republican running against him, State Senator Colin Bonini, isn't running a very strong campaign and is considered likely to be swept away by Representative Carney, especially in a polarized election year.
RATING: Safe D

Indiana
Mike Pence (R) vs Pete Buttigieg (D)
After declining to take the job of Republican nominee Donald Trump's running mate, Governor Mike Pence of Indiana is running for reelection. Against him stands a surprising candidate- South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, a young and charismatic politician who was able to excite the Democratic base and defeat former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, John Gregg, 52%-47% in the primary. Pence's approval ratings are under the water and Democrats are excited at the possibility of a gay man defeating the conservative Governor who once expressed support for "conversion therapy", but Indiana is still a conservative state, leading many to believe that Buttigieg is just too off-putting for Hoosier voters.
RATING: Lean R

Missouri
Chris Koster (D) vs Peter Kinder (R)
While the Democratic primary in Missouri's Gubernatorial race was nearly uncontested, and Attorney General Chris Koster easily won it, the Republican primary was different. Initially considered a battle between Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, State Auditor Tom Schweich and former Speaker of the Missouri House Catherine Hanaway. However, after Schweich's tragic suicide, various other candidates entered the race including former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, State Senator Bob Dixon and conservative businessman John Brunner. The race was tight and nasty, with no candidate really gaining an edge- Hanaway was initiallly the frontrunner but her campaign took much of the blame for the alleged "bullying" that lead to Schweich's suicide, and then Greitens became the front-runner but crushed after allegations of an affair surfaced. In the end, the result gave an edge to the candidate with the most statewide name recognition, Lieutenant Governor Kinder, who won 27% of the vote over 26% for Hanaway, 22% for Brunner, 17% for Greitens and 6% for Dixon. Now, in the general election to succeed Governor Jay Nixon (D), a bruised Kinder is facing a strong Democat, Koster, in a Republican-leaning state, and the race is expected to be tight.
RATING: Tossup

Montana
Steve Bullock (D) vs Greg Gianforte (R)
Governor Steve Bullock (D) is running for reelection in Montana, facing conservative businessman Greg Gianforte. Despite the state's conservative lean, Bullock is considered a popular governor and an able campaigner, while Gianforte's campaign has been lacking and some voters consider him too extreme, leading many to believe that the Governor will win reelection.
RATING: Lean D

New Hampshire
Colin Van Ostern (D) vs Chris Sununu (R)
In the race to succeed New Hampshire's Governor, Maggie Hassan, two popular politicians are running against each other, both members of the state's Executive Council advising and providing a check on the Governor. Republicans nominated Chris Sununu, son of former Governor John H. Sununu and brother of former Senator John E. Sununu, a son of one of the state's most influential political dynasties. Meanwhile, Democrats nominated Colin Van Ostern with the support of another Granite State political dynasty, the Shaheen family, setting up another Sununu vs Shaheen proxy war. The race is considered very tight, just like the Senate race in the same state, and could go either way.
RATING: Tossup

North Carolina
Pat McRory (R) vs Roy Cooper (D)
Runnin under the shadow of national outrage over an anti-transgender law and low approval ratings, Governor Pat McRory (R) is fighting for his political life over the Democratic nominee, Attorney General Roy Cooper. This is considered a tight race, but Democrats have started leading more and more in the polls, causing worries in the McRory campaign that he's the underdog in the race.
RATING: Lean D
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« Reply #195 on: December 29, 2017, 10:10:48 AM »
« Edited: December 29, 2017, 10:21:47 AM by Parrotguy »

Please read the first post in the end of the previous page. It contains the more interesting races anyway Tongue

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Struggle for the Mansions (PART 2)

North Dakota
Doug Burgum (R) vs George Sinner (D)
While Democrats were initially ready to give up on the race, Tom Daschle's entrance to the Senate race eventually convinced them to run a semi-credible candidate in the race to succeed retiring Govenor Jack Darlymple (R), and they convinced former State Senator George B. Sinner to run as a sort of a sacrifical lamb against Republican nominee, businessman Doug Burgum. Still, the race is unlikely to get competitive.
RATING: Safe R

Oregon
Kate Brown (D) vs Bud Pierce (R)
In Oregon, Governor Kate Brown, the former Secretary of State who was sworn in after former Governor John Kitzhaber's resignation amidst scandal, is running for reelection in a special election. Despite the circumstances of her rise, Oregon's liberal lean and her effective campaign lead her to lead the Republican nominee, physician Bud Pierce, and she's likely to be the first elected openly LGBTQ Governor in the history of the nation.
RATING: Likely D

Utah
Gary Herbert (R) vs Mike Weinholtz (D)

In Utah, Governor Gary Herbert is running strong and considered almost certain to defeat the Democratic nominee, businessman Mike Weinholtz. However, with former Governor Jon Huntsman, under whom he served as Lieutenant Governor, running as an independent, Herbert is facing a tough choice over who to endorse in the Presidential race, a choice that could have some impact on his reelection race.
RATING: Safe R

Vermont
Sue Minter (D) vs Phil Scott (R)
The race to succeed retiring Democratic Governor Peter Shmulin in one of the most leftist states in the union is shaping up to be surprisingly close. The Democratic nominee, former State Representative and Transportation Secretary under Shmulin, Sue Minter, is disliked by many Sanders supporters in his state and the man himself didn't even campaign for her yet, while the Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott, is a fairly popular moderate Republican who already managed to win statewide. The little polling done there suggests a close race, but most observers predict that a Presidential election environment and polarization will hand the race to the Democrats.
RATING: Lean D

West Virginia
Carte Goodwin (D) vs Bill Cole (R)
In one of the most conservative states in the nation, the race to succeed Democratic Governor Jay Rockfeller also appears to be tight. While President of the State Senate Bill Cole easily won the Republican nomination, the Democratic primary was a bloody battle between businessman, and Republican until 2015, Jim Justice, State Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler and Carte Goodwin, who briefly served as Senator in 2010 and was strongly supported by Senator Joe Manchin. In the end, after reminding voters of Justice's very recent party switch, Goodwin won the nomination 41% to 39% for Justice and 20% for Kessler. Now, pundits believe that Trump's popularity in the state and the fact that Goodwin was accused of being too liberal would hand the race to the Republicans.
RATING: Lean R

Washington
Jay Inslee (D) vs Bill Bryant (R)
Incumbent Governor Jay Inslee and Republican former Port of Seatle Commissioner Bill Bryant advanced to the general election out of Washington's jungle primary. While Republicans were hoping to present a credible challenge to Inslee, their hopes crumbled as soon as they were forced to diverge resources to other races and face an uphill climb in the general election.
RATING: Safe D
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« Reply #196 on: December 29, 2017, 01:01:02 PM »

Ohama wins
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« Reply #197 on: December 29, 2017, 05:42:52 PM »

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TexArkana
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« Reply #198 on: December 29, 2017, 05:48:06 PM »

Please read the first post in the end of the previous page. It contains the more interesting races anyway Tongue

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Struggle for the Mansions (PART 2)

North Dakota
Doug Burgum (R) vs George Sinner (D)
While Democrats were initially ready to give up on the race, Tom Daschle's entrance to the Senate race eventually convinced them to run a semi-credible candidate in the race to succeed retiring Govenor Jack Darlymple (R), and they convinced former State Senator George B. Sinner to run as a sort of a sacrifical lamb against Republican nominee, businessman Doug Burgum. Still, the race is unlikely to get competitive.
RATING: Safe R

Oregon
Kate Brown (D) vs Bud Pierce (R)
In Oregon, Governor Kate Brown, the former Secretary of State who was sworn in after former Governor John Kitzhaber's resignation amidst scandal, is running for reelection in a special election. Despite the circumstances of her rise, Oregon's liberal lean and her effective campaign lead her to lead the Republican nominee, physician Bud Pierce, and she's likely to be the first elected openly LGBTQ Governor in the history of the nation.
RATING: Likely D

Utah
Gary Herbert (R) vs Mike Weinholtz (D)

In Utah, Governor Gary Herbert is running strong and considered almost certain to defeat the Democratic nominee, businessman Mike Weinholtz. However, with former Governor Jon Huntsman, under whom he served as Lieutenant Governor, running as an independent, Herbert is facing a tough choice over who to endorse in the Presidential race, a choice that could have some impact on his reelection race.
RATING: Safe R

Vermont
Sue Minter (D) vs Phil Scott (R)
The race to succeed retiring Democratic Governor Peter Shmulin in one of the most leftist states in the union is shaping up to be surprisingly close. The Democratic nominee, former State Representative and Transportation Secretary under Shmulin, Sue Minter, is disliked by many Sanders supporters in his state and the man himself didn't even campaign for her yet, while the Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott, is a fairly popular moderate Republican who already managed to win statewide. The little polling done there suggests a close race, but most observers predict that a Presidential election environment and polarization will hand the race to the Democrats.
RATING: Lean D

West Virginia
Carte Goodwin (D) vs Bill Cole (R)
In one of the most conservative states in the nation, the race to succeed Democratic Governor Jay Rockfeller also appears to be tight. While President of the State Senate Bill Cole easily won the Republican nomination, the Democratic primary was a bloody battle between businessman, and Republican until 2015, Jim Justice, State Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler and Carte Goodwin, who briefly served as Senator in 2010 and was strongly supported by Senator Joe Manchin. In the end, after reminding voters of Justice's very recent party switch, Goodwin won the nomination 41% to 39% for Justice and 20% for Kessler. Now, pundits believe that Trump's popularity in the state and the fact that Goodwin was accused of being too liberal would hand the race to the Republicans.
RATING: Lean R

Washington
Jay Inslee (D) vs Bill Bryant (R)
Incumbent Governor Jay Inslee and Republican former Port of Seatle Commissioner Bill Bryant advanced to the general election out of Washington's jungle primary. While Republicans were hoping to present a credible challenge to Inslee, their hopes crumbled as soon as they were forced to diverge resources to other races and face an uphill climb in the general election.
RATING: Safe D
How is Gary Herbert an Independent?
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #199 on: December 29, 2017, 05:53:03 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2017, 02:48:21 PM by Parrotguy »


Herbert is a Republican. Huntsman is running on an independent ticket in the Presidential election.
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