Highground: Ward +14 Primary, Flake v. Sinema S+8 Ward v. Sinema S +1

[Fudotei]

Key points:

Krysten Sinema, who as we all know has somewhat of an odd past (voted against Pelosi, against gay marriage, railed against new feminism... yet also pro-Palestine, pro-taxes, and was against the War on Terror) has 55% approval ratings. It's possible Sinema avoids a costly primary (thus exposing her right wing points) but if Ward's a serious option, that's unlikely.

That means 45% of Arizona can be given information on Sinema by Republicans, including Ward (who will make no attempt to conceal Sinema's religious views). So I'll be cautious on the Ward/Sinema number.

Ward being up 14 in the primary is very dangerous territory, though, especially if Trump is relatively well liked by Arizona Republicans.

[Fudotei]

This is giving me strong AL-SEN flashbacks. People don't like Jeff Flake/Luther Strange and that's demonstrated in the favorability polls. People, while cautious, will embrace Kelli Ward/Roy Moore. Not many are in Flake's base.

Flake and Strange have allied themselves more with McConnell in the growing rift with the President, and Republicans will pick Trump over McConnell.

There's danger brewing for the rest of the Trump administration if that pattern keeps up - with the Republican majority so dangerously thin, a dedicated Trump attack on McConnell's Senate allies could give the make-or-break vote to a lot of unfavorable folks. And remember, McConnell himself is up for re-election in 2020.