Roanoke College - VA: Northam +7

[Gass3268]

Northam: 43%
Gillespie: 36%

Source

[Gass3268]

FiveThirtyEight gives Ronaoke College only a C+ rating, so I won't put too much weight into this. The most interesting statistic I see in this poll is that while Gillespie has more name recognition, more people dislike him than Northam.

Sure, but this is three straight polls all around a 6 point lead for Northam.

[Gass3268]

I highly doubt Northam can beat Gillespie. Gillespie is a smart political operative who can make up his weakness as was seen in the supposedly SAFE D senate seat in 2014. Come election day and I am proven right, I will enjoy you all eating crow.

Lol

[Gass3268]

Northam can't get above the mid to low 40s. This is getting a little concerning at this point.

Gillespie can't get above the mid 30s, so...

[Gass3268]

Not sure why any Republican would get their hopes up here, honestly. This is Virginia, not Florida or Wisconsin. They couldn't even win a statewide race in 2013, and with the state continuing to trend strongly Democratic, 2017 isn't going to be easier for them. I think Gillespie will make it closer than people expect, but expecting him to win this race is really a bridge too far. The only reason this is Lean instead of Safe D is because Gillespie is a pretty decent candidate and political operative.

Exactly