Well-behaved women... : a 2020 TL

[Kamala]

Open Seat Ratings from the People's Political Podcast website
as of January 10th, 2018

Arizona - Tilt D

Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema has scared off all other Democrats in her primary, and most of the establishment Republicans as well. Her moderate cred, as well as her home base in Maricopa County - crucial to a Democratic victory - make her a formidable candidate.

Former State Senator Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio both have obstacles in winning the general. Both of them share the same base of basement-dwelling-libertarians, birthers, and sadistic prison guards that will be hard to expand or appeal to other demographics.

However, Arizona is still a Republican state at heart, and the race has a very high chance of going Republican again. However, if anyone was to turn the state (atlas) red, it'll be Sinema. Remember, Jeff Flake couldn't even get a majority in 2012 even as Romney was winning the state handily.

California - Safe D

Long-time Senator Dianne Feinstein is retiring, and California has a lot of Democratic talent waiting in the wings.

Member of the LA County Board of Supervisors, former Labor Secretary and Congresswoman Hilda Solis has declared her intentions to run, and her connections to the Obama administration, bringing money and staff, give her a leg up above her opponents.

2016 Senate runner-up Loretta Sanchez also announced her intentions to stand in the election, but it is unknown whether her base of dabbers will turn out again to push her into the second round.

State Senate Pro Temp Kevin de Leon had intended to run even against Feinstein before she declared her retirement, and so has had the longest time to develop a statewide profile.

For the Republicans, a wide variety of people are running - State Senator Janet Nguyen, former State Senator Ling Ling Chang, State Assemblywoman Catharine Baker, and State Board of Equalization Member George Runner.

It's entirely possible that California's top-2 primary system could yield funky results - a second D v. D runoff, like in 2016, is likely, although if the Republicans would coalesce around one candidate, they could break into the second round, where they'll be almost guaranteed a loss. Regardless of the primary results, this is a Safe D election.


Delaware - Safe D

Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester is retiring Senator Tom Carper's hand chosen successor and mentee, and she's managed to clear the field in the Democratic primary. She'd be the second freshman seeking a promotion this cycle, joining Nevada's Jacky Rosen.

No Republican has filed so far, but three-time loser and known witch Christine O'Donnell has been making noise about running. If no one else wants to run, and the NRCC doesn't seem willing to spend a lot on this race, O'Donnell would likely be nominated and lose the general by bigger margins than 2010.

Needless to say, Republicans are going to spend more money on races like North Dakota, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana than they are going to on Delaware, a rock-ribbed D state.

Hawaii - Safe D

Senator Mazie Hirono is retiring due to health reasons, and has left a competitive primary for her seat. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard has declared, as has 29-year old State Representative Kaniela Ing, who will be the minimum age of 30 by just 6 days before the new congress's inauguration day. Their combined ages are less than Senator Hirono's age.

No Republican has filed.

Maryland - Safe D

Senator Ben Cardin has announced his retirement. Former Congressman Chris Van Hollen, who lost in the 2016 primary to replace Barbara Mikulski, is running again, hoping second time's the charm. John Sabarnes, congressman and son of Cardin's predecessor Paul Sabarnes, is also running. It is expected that the primary will be much more brutal than the general, which should be a cakewalk for the Democrats.

A single notable Republican is running - radio host and former Maryland First Lady Kendel Ehrlich. However, we don't think many people in Maryland remember the Ehrlich governorship, and if they do, they remember voting him out in 2006.

Despite Ehrlich being a better-than-average-fit Republican, Maryland is too blue, especially in a midterm, to elect a Republican to the Senate.

Mississippi - Lean R

Senator Thad Cochran is ancient at 80 years old, and it shows. He announced his retirement and the state of Mississippi will hold a non-partisan, by law, special election at the same time as the other states' Senate elections. This provides some unique dynamics in this election.

Democrats have all but unified behind State Attorney General Jim Hood, the last Democratic statewide officeholder in Mississippi. He's long had a reputation of winning votes from traditional Democrats who have felt like the party has left them.

In the Republican convention, two camps have emerged - one around controversial State Senator Chris McDaniel , who challenged Cochran in a heated and contested primary in 2014, and another around former governor Haley Barbour - that could tear the MSGOP apart. Due to the nature of the convention, it is impossible to predict how members will vote, and whether the establishment Barbour or the controversial McDaniel will win.

Another factor in this race could be the issue of McDaniel running as a conservative independent if he does not receive the nomination. This could throw a wrench into the Republicans' plans, but it is still to be seen if McDaniel's threats will actually materialize.

If the race is just one Republican vs Hood, it leans R, just due to how polarized the state is on a national level. If McDaniel jumps in as an independent, the race shifts much more favorably to Hood.

New Jersey - Likely D

Senator Bob Menendez is almost certain to be found guilty on corruption charges, and has decided (or been forced) to retire at the end of this term. This opens up an opportunity for the Republicans to pick up a seat, though it is incredibly unlikely seeing Murphy's performance in 2017.

Two Democrats have explored entering this election. Former Congressman Rush Holt, who lost to Senator Cory Booker in the primary to replace Frank Lautenberg, has been "seriously considering" jumping into the race. However, at nearly 70 years of age, there's been some pushback to his candidacy.

The other Democrat is State Assemblywoman Pamela Rosen Lampitt, who has officially entered the race. If Holt doesn't enter, she'd have only nominal opposition in the primary.

Three Republicans, all unemployed, two of them familiar faces, have also entered the election. Former Lieutenant Governor and 2017 gubernatorial nominee Kim Guadagno, former State Senator and 2017 lieutenant gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli , and former State Senator (who lost her seat in 2017) Jennifer Beck. It'll be interesting to see if NJ Republicans are willing to give Guadagno another shot.

Tennessee - Lean R

Bob Corker had enough of Trump, but has Tennessee? This election will show.

The same day that Corker announced he's not running for reelection, Representative Marsha Blackburn declared she is. Former Congressman Stephen Fincher also declared his intentions, as have other minor candidates. Blackburn seems to be most ready to take over and win the Republican nomination, but there's a very good chance the primary turns nasty.

The Democrats were teased for a while by former Governor Phil Bredesen, but he ultimately ruled against a run. What they got instead is possibly better: country musician Tim McGraw. If anyone can make it an interesting race, it's him. And he claims he's no Kid Rock - he's actually running for Senate, for real.

Utah - Likely R

Looks like old Orrin Hatch is finally ready to retire. And his chosen successor, former Massachusetts governor and 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney would most likely easily win the primary and general.

The Democrats are looking to nominate Salt Lake County councilwoman Jenny Wilson, a better than average candidate, but one that will likely lose to a popular candidate like Romney.

However, two factors are going to complicate this election.

First, the United Utah Party, and their nominee, 2016 Senate nominee Jim Bennett, who lost in a squeaker to Senator Mike Lee. If the UUP draws a lot of votes from Romney, it could make a much tighter election than expected.

Second, 2016 independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin is planning to challenge Romney from the right. Three right wing candidates could make a perfect storm and lead to a Wilson victory, but it is still rather unlikely.

[OBD]

Open Seat Ratings from the People's Political Podcast website
as of January 10th, 2018

Arizona - Tilt D

Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema has scared off all other Democrats in her primary, and most of the establishment Republicans as well. Her moderate cred, as well as her home base in Maricopa County - crucial to a Democratic victory - make her a formidable candidate.

Former State Senator Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio both have obstacles in winning the general. Both of them share the same base of basement-dwelling-libertarians, birthers, and sadistic prison guards that will be hard to expand or appeal to other demographics.

However, Arizona is still a Republican state at heart, and the race has a very high chance of going Republican again. However, if anyone was to turn the state (atlas) red, it'll be Sinema. Remember, Jeff Flake couldn't even get a majority in 2012 even as Romney was winning the state handily.

California - Safe D

Long-time Senator Dianne Feinstein is retiring, and California has a lot of Democratic talent waiting in the wings.

Member of the LA County Board of Supervisors, former Labor Secretary and Congresswoman Hilda Solis has declared her intentions to run, and her connections to the Obama administration, bringing money and staff, give her a leg up above her opponents.

2016 Senate runner-up Loretta Sanchez also announced her intentions to stand in the election, but it is unknown whether her base of dabbers will turn out again to push her into the second round.

State Senate Pro Temp Kevin de Leon had intended to run even against Feinstein before she declared her retirement, and so has had the longest time to develop a statewide profile.

For the Republicans, a wide variety of people are running - State Senator Janet Nguyen, former State Senator Ling Ling Chang, State Assemblywoman Catharine Baker, and State Board of Equalization Member George Runner.

It's entirely possible that California's top-2 primary system could yield funky results - a second D v. D runoff, like in 2016, is likely, although if the Republicans would coalesce around one candidate, they could break into the second round, where they'll be almost guaranteed a loss. Regardless of the primary results, this is a Safe D election.


Delaware - Safe D

Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester is retiring Senator Tom Carper's hand chosen successor and mentee, and she's managed to clear the field in the Democratic primary. She'd be the second freshman seeking a promotion this cycle, joining Nevada's Jacky Rosen.

No Republican has filed so far, but three-time loser and known witch Christine O'Donnell has been making noise about running. If no one else wants to run, and the NRCC doesn't seem willing to spend a lot on this race, O'Donnell would likely be nominated and lose the general by bigger margins than 2010.

Needless to say, Republicans are going to spend more money on races like North Dakota, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana than they are going to on Delaware, a rock-ribbed D state.

Hawaii - Safe D

Senator Mazie Hirono is retiring due to health reasons, and has left a competitive primary for her seat. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard has declared, as has 29-year old State Representative Kaniela Ing, who will be the minimum age of 30 by just 6 days before the new congress's inauguration day. Their combined ages are less than Senator Hirono's age.

No Republican has filed.

Maryland - Safe D

Senator Ben Cardin has announced his retirement. Former Congressman Chris Van Hollen, who lost in the 2016 primary to replace Barbara Mikulski, is running again, hoping second time's the charm. John Sabarnes, congressman and son of Cardin's predecessor Paul Sabarnes, is also running. It is expected that the primary will be much more brutal than the general, which should be a cakewalk for the Democrats.

A single notable Republican is running - radio host and former Maryland First Lady Kendel Ehrlich. However, we don't think many people in Maryland remember the Ehrlich governorship, and if they do, they remember voting him out in 2006.

Despite Ehrlich being a better-than-average-fit Republican, Maryland is too blue, especially in a midterm, to elect a Republican to the Senate.

Mississippi - Lean R

Senator Thad Cochran is ancient at 80 years old, and it shows. He announced his retirement and the state of Mississippi will hold a non-partisan, by law, special election at the same time as the other states' Senate elections. This provides some unique dynamics in this election.

Democrats have all but unified behind State Attorney General Jim Hood, the last Democratic statewide officeholder in Mississippi. He's long had a reputation of winning votes from traditional Democrats who have felt like the party has left them.

In the Republican convention, two camps have emerged - one around controversial State Senator Chris McDaniel , who challenged Cochran in a heated and contested primary in 2014, and another around former governor Haley Barbour - that could tear the MSGOP apart. Due to the nature of the convention, it is impossible to predict how members will vote, and whether the establishment Barbour or the controversial McDaniel will win.

Another factor in this race could be the issue of McDaniel running as a conservative independent if he does not receive the nomination. This could throw a wrench into the Republicans' plans, but it is still to be seen if McDaniel's threats will actually materialize.

If the race is just one Republican vs Hood, it leans R, just due to how polarized the state is on a national level. If McDaniel jumps in as an independent, the race shifts much more favorably to Hood.

New Jersey - Likely D

Senator Bob Menendez is almost certain to be found guilty on corruption charges, and has decided (or been forced) to retire at the end of this term. This opens up an opportunity for the Republicans to pick up a seat, though it is incredibly unlikely seeing Murphy's performance in 2017.

Two Democrats have explored entering this election. Former Congressman Rush Holt, who lost to Senator Cory Booker in the primary to replace Frank Lautenberg, has been "seriously considering" jumping into the race. However, at nearly 70 years of age, there's been some pushback to his candidacy.

The other Democrat is State Assemblywoman Pamela Rosen Lampitt, who has officially entered the race. If Holt doesn't enter, she'd have only nominal opposition in the primary.

Three Republicans, all unemployed, two of them familiar faces, have also entered the election. Former Lieutenant Governor and 2017 gubernatorial nominee Kim Guadagno, former State Senator and 2017 lieutenant gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli , and former State Senator (who lost her seat in 2017) Jennifer Beck. It'll be interesting to see if NJ Republicans are willing to give Guadagno another shot.

Tennessee - Lean R

Bob Corker had enough of Trump, but has Tennessee? This election will show.

The same day that Corker announced he's not running for reelection, Representative Marsha Blackburn declared she is. Former Congressman Stephen Fincher also declared his intentions, as have other minor candidates. Blackburn seems to be most ready to take over and win the Republican nomination, but there's a very good chance the primary turns nasty.

The Democrats were teased for a while by former Governor Phil Bredesen, but he ultimately ruled against a run. What they got instead is possibly better: country musician Tim McGraw. If anyone can make it an interesting race, it's him. And he claims he's no Kid Rock - he's actually running for Senate, for real.

Utah - Likely R

Looks like old Orrin Hatch is finally ready to retire. And his chosen successor, former Massachusetts governor and 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney would most likely easily win the primary and general.

The Democrats are looking to nominate Salt Lake County councilwoman Jenny Wilson, a better than average candidate, but one that will likely lose to a popular candidate like Romney.

However, two factors are going to complicate this election.

First, the United Utah Party, and their nominee, 2016 Senate nominee Jim Bennett, who lost in a squeaker to Senator Mike Lee. If the UUP draws a lot of votes from Romney, it could make a much tighter election than expected.

Second, 2016 independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin is planning to challenge Romney from the right. Three right wing candidates could make a perfect storm and lead to a Wilson victory, but it is still rather unlikely.

Geez, that Utah race is going to be a slugfest.

[BuckeyeNut]

Congress needs more scientists -- and Quakers -- rooting hard for Rush Holt.

[Kamala]

Beyoncé
January 10th, 2018

"No, I won't be running in Texas this year. I think Beto is a great candidate and our best shot to take down Ted Cruz. It's important we get more Democrats in the Senate to prevent Trump from pushing through a harmful agenda. It's necessary we prevent him from permanently ruining our country.

I will be holding several concert-rallies with Beto, from El Paso to Houston and from Dallas to San Antonio. Every major city, and maybe a few smaller ones, will be visited by the campaign. I think people are going to be paying a lot of attention to Texas this year."

[...]

"I still haven't been thinking about 2020. I don't think I'm the person to take down Trump. There's countless hardworking Democrats who have helped make this country so much stronger and better through their work in Congress and their states. They deserve a shot, and I would rather spend time with Jay and my children."

[...]

"Of course, the Senate is still an option. But a lot of things are 'still an option.' I could choose to go into real estate, or perhaps opening my own theatre academy, or countless other things. Running against Senator Cornyn is a possibility, but that's going to be a decision for Jay and me to make."

2018 Senate Ratings


(Alabama represents the special election in Mississippi.)

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I wouldve moved to Texas if it meant I could cast a ballot for Beyoncé to take down Ted Cruz

[Lord Admirale]

This is starting to make me despise Beto, since I don't like Hollywood... at all.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

This is starting to make me despise Beto, since I don't like Hollywood... at all.

..............What?

[kyc0705]

This is starting to make me despise Beto, since I don't like Hollywood... at all.

[Lord Admirale]

This is starting to make me despise Beto, since I don't like Hollywood... at all.

Sorry not sorry ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(Also, please do not misstate my gender. Thank you.)

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

This is starting to make me despise Beto, since I don't like Hollywood... at all.

Sorry not sorry ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(Also, please do not misstate my gender. Thank you.)

I'd say "girl, bye" is a pretty non-gendered expression in US culture at this point, imho. Also, I don't get what you meant about Hollywood? It can't be Beyoncé, since she's from Houston and lives in NYC...

Also, Kamala, this story is really great, I'm hooked. Keep up the good work!

[BuckeyeNut]

C'mon Beto.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is starting to make me despise Beto, since I don't like Hollywood... at all.

Sorry not sorry ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(Also, please do not misstate my gender. Thank you.)

Lol

[Kamala]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

[_]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

I mean it's kinda obvious it's gonna be a D wave, no need to smash it in with more and more filler.

BUT, I think another 538esque preview of 2018 is in order, specifically on the day before the election, if you're up for it of course, or you could skip straight to election day it's up to you.

Also if you're actually going to do EVERY SINGLE legislature and Row office that's amazing.

[rpryor03]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

If it works for you, it works for us!

[America Needs R'hllor]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

If it works for you, it works for us!

[WestVegeta]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

Anything at all is appreciated!

[West_Midlander]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

Anything at all is appreciated!

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

Anything at all is appreciated!

[The Govanah Jake]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

Anything at all is appreciated!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

Anything at all is appreciated!

[BuckeyeNut]

I don't want to abandon this TL, but I don't want to keep writing stuff about the campaign. I'd rather go state-by-state (gov, sen, house, legislature, row offices, everything) results in 2018.

Is that alright?

Anything at all is appreciated!

[Kamala]

Podcast aired Monday, November 5th, 2018

JASON TARTENBERG: Holy sh**t.

B. B. duSCOMBE: Right?

LEON LEMLER: We knew that Mondays were going to be exciting during the Trump era, but this Monday? And such a gigantic dump of news. "Holy sh**t" is exactly right.

BBdS: Christmas came early this year, and Bob Mueller is Santa.

CONSTANCE JUSTICE: Would someone like to explain to our listeners what is actu–

JT: What, have they been living under a rock or something? Who hasn't heard the news this morning?

LL: This is like the Nixon tapes, Teapot Dome, and the Rosenberg case rolled up into one.

CJ: Guess I'll do it. Mueller announced charges of treason against the President, his family, and a dozen aides under US Code section 2381. This is a bombshell - and while the actual evidence is currently sealed, there is no way to spin this. Although Trump won't be tried in federal court, his family and aides will be. Mueller effectively presented a case for Congress to begin a trial of the president, potentially leading to impeachment.

BBdS: And coming the day before the midterms - it's utterly awful for the president.

LL: I'd say it'd have been worse had charges been announced last week or even before. These kind of things won't fade from the memory of voters. At least right now news might not spread completely to all people, which is the President's best case.

JT: But the news have been plastered everywhere by the media - TV, radio, online, some newspapers are even running an afternoon print - meaning that it's going to be everywhere by election day. I mean, it's like 11:30 AM in the studio in Philly right now, and nearly everyone at the office, coffeeshop, public transportation is talking to each other about it.

CJ: So... quickly, how does this affect Election Day?

BBdS: It was already going to be a Democratic wave, so... Change the wave into a tsunami?

LL: Probably will increase turnout significantly. Might be an all-time high for a midterm.

JT: I doubt many Republicans will vote against their party. I'd say there's a minimized effect.

CJ: Huh. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

BBdS: I'm gonna adjust my House net gain: from +30 seats for the Democrats to +45.

LL: Has anyone checked on the president's approval rating? It's been climbing slowly for the past several months. He's almost at 30 approval.

CJ: It'll take a while to see an affect, although The Maine Polling company has reported they will conduct a one day national sample today. Won't be super accurate, but it's at least something.

JT: I feel like there's not much left to say. We can only sit and wait, I guess.


Maine Polling Company - Trump Approvals 11/05
Approve - 17%
Disapprove - 80%

[OBD]

Podcast aired Monday, November 5th, 2018

JASON TARTENBERG: Holy sh**t.

B. B. duSCOMBE: Right?

LEON LEMLER: We knew that Mondays were going to be exciting during the Trump era, but this Monday? And such a gigantic dump of news. "Holy sh**t" is exactly right.

BBdS: Christmas came early this year, and Bob Mueller is Santa.

CONSTANCE JUSTICE: Would someone like to explain to our listeners what is actu–

JT: What, have they been living under a rock or something? Who hasn't heard the news this morning?

LL: This is like the Nixon tapes, Teapot Dome, and the Rosenberg case rolled up into one.

CJ: Guess I'll do it. Mueller announced charges of treason against the President, his family, and a dozen aides under US Code section 2381. This is a bombshell - and while the actual evidence is currently sealed, there is no way to spin this. Although Trump won't be tried in federal court, his family and aides will be. Mueller effectively presented a case for Congress to begin a trial of the president, potentially leading to impeachment.

BBdS: And coming the day before the midterms - it's utterly awful for the president.

LL: I'd say it'd have been worse had charges been announced last week or even before. These kind of things won't fade from the memory of voters. At least right now news might not spread completely to all people, which is the President's best case.

JT: But the news have been plastered everywhere by the media - TV, radio, online, some newspapers are even running an afternoon print - meaning that it's going to be everywhere by election day. I mean, it's like 11:30 AM in the studio in Philly right now, and nearly everyone at the office, coffeeshop, public transportation is talking to each other about it.

CJ: So... quickly, how does this affect Election Day?

BBdS: It was already going to be a Democratic wave, so... Change the wave into a tsunami?

LL: Probably will increase turnout significantly. Might be an all-time high for a midterm.

JT: I doubt many Republicans will vote against their party. I'd say there's a minimized effect.

CJ: Huh. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

BBdS: I'm gonna adjust my House net gain: from +30 seats for the Democrats to +45.

LL: Has anyone checked on the president's approval rating? It's been climbing slowly for the past several months. He's almost at 30 approval.

CJ: It'll take a while to see an affect, although The Maine Polling company has reported they will conduct a one day national sample today. Won't be super accurate, but it's at least something.

JT: I feel like there's not much left to say. We can only sit and wait, I guess.


Maine Polling Company - Trump Approvals 11/05
Approve - 17%
Disapprove - 80%

YASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[MAINEiac4434]

Robert Mueller 2020