Future Realignment Possibilities? (user search)
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  Future Realignment Possibilities? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Future Realignment Possibilities?  (Read 8571 times)
AN63093
63093
Jr. Member
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Posts: 871


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 2.17

« on: August 26, 2017, 11:05:20 PM »
« edited: August 26, 2017, 11:22:27 PM by AN63093 »

Side-stepping the ongoing conversation in this thread regarding jalawest's map (suffice to say, that map is one of the more.. shall we say... goofier things I've seen on this forum), here is what I've posted before on my two most likely realignment scenarios:

1.  TT's generational theory is correct and a realignment occurs with a catalyst being a major economic crisis that unravels the Reagan neo-liberal economic order and results in a system with low polarization and differences between the parties being mostly economic in nature.  Whites are mostly GOP, minorities D, but both parties make significant in-roads with all racial/ethnic demographics.  In this system, I think there would be a significant number of swing states, landslides would be relatively common and both parties would be competitive in nearly every state.  NY, TX, and FL are the hardest fought states.  PA and IL are close too, but are losing EVs with each passing census.  Toss-ups are indicated; and about 6-10 more states would be swing states.



2.  TT's generational theory may be correct, and an economic crisis may occur, but even so, all of this is overshadowed by increased and extremely intense polarization rooted in racial stratification of the parties, leading to a South Africa type system.  The GOP is essentially the White party, the Dems are the "others."  Neither party platform is significantly different on economic issues, and all debates eventually lead back to identity politics.  After a few decades the country is at serious risk of Balkanizing and racial/ethnic strife and violence are relatively common.  Elections are almost entirely just a turnout battle in the 4 toss-ups between whites and minorities.  There are no swing states except the lighter shaded ones in 50-50 years.



PV percentages are not literal... lighter shading just indicates closer states.


Though most people would consider the second scenario "bleaker," I think this is actually the more likely scenario.

As I wrote about above, if some of Timmy's predictions about generational theory occur, my first scenario might be one of the likely outcomes.

I also think what RINO Tom wrote a couple pages back is plausible.  However, like in Timmy's theories, I think some event would have to occur first that de-polarizes the current climate.  In the case that happens, then I also think we would settle into my "scenario 1," and that map above would be a likely outcome.
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AN63093
63093
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 871


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 2.17

« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2017, 03:35:41 AM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 03:43:46 AM by AN63093 »

First off, I'm not advocating for either of these scenarios.  They are offered as possible scenarios based on observation of current trends.  So keep that in mind in your replies PNM.

Second, in the case of NJ, WA, and CA, I'm not sure why you're mentioning these, because you'll notice that in my map that they are still all D.  I agree with you that the white population there is a) too liberal, and b) those states are also too diverse.  Even in a world of extreme racial stratification, those states still probably stay D and they are colored in that way on my map.  

Third, these maps are post-realignment maps.  So we're talking about 20-30 year trends here.  These are not the maps for 2020.  So this is assuming polarization not only continues, but that racial stratification among parties exponentially increases as well, over decades of time.  More important than how Gen X is voting (btw, I'm not sure that I buy that Gen X whites are substantially more Dem than Boomer whites, I'd like to see a cite for that), is how the post-Millennials (Gen Z?) vote, and the generation after Z.  This scenario is also assuming that a major portion of that generation's counter-culture (at least among whites), will be the Alt Right (or some future version of it) and that the general climate will be one of ethnic strife, a very Balkanized typed society where people identify most primarily with race and ethnic group.  That may be difficult for you to envision now, but this scenario is assuming another 20-30 years of the same type of polarization we have today; and actually, increased levels of hyper polarization.

Fourth, I grew up in NY and spent many of my summers in New England (our family actually used to have a house in Newport RI).  I am very familiar with this area, and also the Bay Area and So Cal, as I go out there all the time (have family in SF and LA).  States like CT, VT, and RI are not culturally similar to the Bay Area.  Conflating these two regions reflects a lack of perspective of the different demographics.  The unionized longshoreman working in Providence and drinking Narragansett at a dive after work while swapping racist jokes with his buddies and discussing the Sox, is voting Dem for a very different reason than the Google software engineer living in Mountain View who has a STEM PhD and is trying to buy one of those crappy 70s ranch homes in Redwood City that are now going for $1-2mil+.  

Take a look at the trend and swing maps.  The Bay Area trended and swung hard D, every county in the Bay Area MSA, and also the LA MSA.  Now look at New England.  Every county but one swung AND trended R in VT, and in ME, and in CT (only place that swung D was Fairfield Cty near NYC), and in RI.  The only place in New England that swung D was Boston, and you'll notice that accordingly, MA is not R on my map (this is the closest place in the region that 'votes like' the Bay Area).  Are these states voting R in 2020?  Nope.  In 2024?  Nope.  In 30 years based on decades of racial identity politics played both parties?  Well, now that might be different.

Finally, you're not grasping the sophistication of which I'm analyzing this.  For example, you discuss how there is a limit to how much you get from the "dog whistle."  But notice I didn't say anything about dog whistles.  This scenario is envisioning a world in which whites have started block voting in certain areas such that things like dog whistles aren't even necessary anymore.  In other words, you are assuming current tactics and political culture are static and unchanging.  My scenarios are extrapolating how culture would change after decades of trends and how the entire climate would be completely different.
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AN63093
63093
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 871


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 2.17

« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2017, 04:26:33 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2017, 04:28:22 PM by AN63093 »

MT Treasurer, good maps.

Lots of similarity between your maps and both of my scenarios, though particularly my second scenario.  However, I was wondering why you think OR and NM will start trending back R.  I could see OR in a world where we de-polarize, but I'm having trouble envisioning your theory with NM.  I think Timmy has a good point with this state.. NM is a good candidate for one of the most D states in the US in 20 years.

Other than that, the only quibble I had is I think we'd have to have a de-polarization for LA/MS to flip D (black growth may be slowly outpacing white growth, but it's so gradual... 2040 is being quite optimistic I think).  Also I didn't have GA going quite so hard D and I think NC probably remains a toss up in most scenarios.

Besides that, good maps!
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