Future Realignment Possibilities?

[TheSaint250]

Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?

Yeah basically, plus the Democrats will still be the "urban" party. Chicago's not going to shrink that much in population, would it?

Honestly, a more interesting question would be why Michigan goes Dem (since Detroit is smaller and declining faster than Chicago). It's Dem on this map due to circumstances specific to my timeline; in general, it's likely that it would behave more like its GOP-leaning neighbors.

I don't think Chicago will shrink *that* much either.  However, if the GOP is becoming a more secular, global-minded, and fiscally conservative party, the people living in the Cook, DuPage, Lake, etc. suburbs, should be returning home to the GOP in enough numbers to give Illinois to the GOP.

The past 8 months of Trump's presidency have shattered any façade that Trumpism  actually is a socially moderate, global-minded fiscal conservative.

"Trumpism" will be gone once Trump is.

[TheSaint250]

Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?

Yeah basically, plus the Democrats will still be the "urban" party. Chicago's not going to shrink that much in population, would it?

Honestly, a more interesting question would be why Michigan goes Dem (since Detroit is smaller and declining faster than Chicago). It's Dem on this map due to circumstances specific to my timeline; in general, it's likely that it would behave more like its GOP-leaning neighbors.

I don't think Chicago will shrink *that* much either.  However, if the GOP is becoming a more secular, global-minded, and fiscally conservative party, the people living in the Cook, DuPage, Lake, etc. suburbs, should be returning home to the GOP in enough numbers to give Illinois to the GOP.

The past 8 months of Trump's presidency have shattered any façade that Trumpism  actually is a socially moderate, global-minded fiscal conservative.

"Trumpism" will be gone once Trump is.

that the GOP will become this global-minded fiscally conservative party strikes me as bizarre. Nothing about them really even suggests they're that fiscally conservative aside from railing against spending when a Democrat is in office and then proceeding to do sh!t about it once they can. And I don't see why they'd become increasingly secular when the religious nuts still have huge sway in the party's nominations. They're only going to get more reactionary and desperate to maintain their grip on the party as the country shifts away from them

k

[TheSaint250]

Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?

Yeah basically, plus the Democrats will still be the "urban" party. Chicago's not going to shrink that much in population, would it?

Honestly, a more interesting question would be why Michigan goes Dem (since Detroit is smaller and declining faster than Chicago). It's Dem on this map due to circumstances specific to my timeline; in general, it's likely that it would behave more like its GOP-leaning neighbors.

I don't think Chicago will shrink *that* much either.  However, if the GOP is becoming a more secular, global-minded, and fiscally conservative party, the people living in the Cook, DuPage, Lake, etc. suburbs, should be returning home to the GOP in enough numbers to give Illinois to the GOP.

The past 8 months of Trump's presidency have shattered any façade that Trumpism  actually is a socially moderate, global-minded fiscal conservative.

"Trumpism" will be gone once Trump is.

that the GOP will become this global-minded fiscally conservative party strikes me as bizarre. Nothing about them really even suggests they're that fiscally conservative aside from railing against spending when a Democrat is in office and then proceeding to do sh!t about it once they can. And I don't see why they'd become increasingly secular when the religious nuts still have huge sway in the party's nominations. They're only going to get more reactionary and desperate to maintain their grip on the party as the country shifts away from them

k

I know you like to ignore it, but that's literally all the GOP does when it comes to "fiscal conservatism." Typically it's 1.) cut taxes like we're still in the good ole 1980's, 2.) see a budget shortfall, 3.) blame said shortfall on inner city welfare queens, blacks and Mexicans not paying their taxes, and Democrats' spending problems (which, sure, can get excessive)

No you're right on the fiscal conservatism thing; the party has failed (but to say the party scapegoats minorities is just ridiculous). Everything else is pretty much wrong.  The party will reform or it will die.

[TheSaint250]

Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.

The GOP will more likely than not have turned around on climate change by then.  It's not going to matter that many didn't believe it in the past.

[TheSaint250]

Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.

The GOP will more likely than not have turned around on climate change by then.  It's not going to matter that many didn't believe it in the past.

By then yeah. I think there'll then enough of the youth today in Florida voting in the 2030's-2040 to keep it slightly Democratic. It's a state that has a fairly low income (even when adjusted for COLA) and is minority heavy. I do think counter trends of retiring Xers will keep it competitive for the GOP (which is also why I have Arizona being only lean Dem as well).

Plus I suspect the Electoral Map will be lean D anyways.

It really all comes down to how the GOP shifts. Much better minority outreach will help nationwide, and if Gen Zers end up being libertarian-leaning and Republican-leading, then the party will still remain competitive.

[TheSaint250]

Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

I suspect climate change will ultimately cause it to turn lean Dem. I think Texas and Illinois will be the bellwether states by this time.

The GOP will more likely than not have turned around on climate change by then.  It's not going to matter that many didn't believe it in the past.

By then yeah. I think there'll then enough of the youth today in Florida voting in the 2030's-2040 to keep it slightly Democratic. It's a state that has a fairly low income (even when adjusted for COLA) and is minority heavy. I do think counter trends of retiring Xers will keep it competitive for the GOP (which is also why I have Arizona being only lean Dem as well).

Plus I suspect the Electoral Map will be lean D anyways.

It really all comes down to how the GOP shifts. Much better minority outreach will help nationwide, and if Gen Zers end up being libertarian-leaning and Republican-leading, then the party will still remain competitive.

Looking at demographic data, a winning GOP coalition in 2036-2040 would probably look something like this:

Whites: 63-67%
Asians: 50-54%
Hispanics: 42-46%
Blacks: 14-18%

Thanks for the numbers

It's certainly possible, it just depends on whether the party wants to put in the effort or not

[TheSaint250]

This map is mainly based off of information from the following:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mycollegeoptions#!/vizhome/PresidentialPolling-Fall2016/PresidentialPolling2016

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map/2016/us?poll=sm-exit-millennials-cps

The first site features a 50-state poll of over 80,000 14-18-year-olds.  The second site features how voters aged 18-34 voted in 2016.

[TheSaint250]

This map is mainly based off of information from the following:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mycollegeoptions#!/vizhome/PresidentialPolling-Fall2016/PresidentialPolling2016

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map/2016/us?poll=sm-exit-millennials-cps

The first site features a 50-state poll of over 80,000 14-18-year-olds.  The second site features how voters aged 18-34 voted in 2016.

That second map is one Survey Monkey poll.  Trump won the 18-29 vote in 21 states, not 4!

Ah ok. Thanks. Where did you get that info?

[TheSaint250]

This map is mainly based off of information from the following:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/mycollegeoptions#!/vizhome/PresidentialPolling-Fall2016/PresidentialPolling2016

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map/2016/us?poll=sm-exit-millennials-cps

The first site features a 50-state poll of over 80,000 14-18-year-olds.  The second site features how voters aged 18-34 voted in 2016.

That second map is one Survey Monkey poll.  Trump won the 18-29 vote in 21 states, not 4!

Ah ok. Thanks. Where did you get that info?

Exit polls (now, we don't have all of the Safe R/D states, but we can be reasonably confident in those, especially if similar less R/D states voted as expected.

https://i1.wp.com/amptoons.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/18-29-vote-exit-polls-2016.png

Here is just 18-24: https://i2.wp.com/amptoons.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/18-24-vote-exit-polls-2016.png (Note Minnesota!)

Thank you! I'll probably readjust the map then