Future Realignment Possibilities?

[libertpaulian]

Realigning eras are mostly a myth that depends on your starting point:

-From 1968 to the present, Republicans have won eight of the last 13 elections
-Since Reagan took office, Republicans have won six of ten elections
-Since Clinton took office, however, Democrats have won four of seven- and the popular vote in six of seven.

Wait, was it actually a Republican alignment from 1968-1992 and a Democratic one from 1992-2016 (or the present)?  Or a Democratic alignment until 1980 followed by a Republican one?  Over 13 elections, 8 have gone one way and 5 the other.  Honestly, that seems more like statistical noise than a realignment.  Since both parties have access to countless polls and data and tend to slowly adapt, we haven't had a real realignment since 1932 (or arguably even 1860) and probably never will again.

I'd say it's more of an ideological alignment.

Clinton campaigned like a populist liberal yet governed like a blue dog Democrat.  Obama campaigned like a populist liberal also but could get very few of his desired agendas through.  The country may have elected two "liberals," but they also elected a Congress that would restrain said liberalism.  They wanted to have their Reaganesque cake and eat it too.

[libertpaulian]

Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?

[libertpaulian]

Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?

Yeah basically, plus the Democrats will still be the "urban" party. Chicago's not going to shrink that much in population, would it?

Honestly, a more interesting question would be why Michigan goes Dem (since Detroit is smaller and declining faster than Chicago). It's Dem on this map due to circumstances specific to my timeline; in general, it's likely that it would behave more like its GOP-leaning neighbors.

I don't think Chicago will shrink *that* much either.  However, if the GOP is becoming a more secular, global-minded, and fiscally conservative party, the people living in the Cook, DuPage, Lake, etc. suburbs, should be returning home to the GOP in enough numbers to give Illinois to the GOP.

[libertpaulian]

Florida should be gray as it will replace Ohio as the "Missouri bellwether" state by then.

[libertpaulian]

Why did IL go Dem?  Were there enough "ancestral" Chicago Democrats turning out?

Yeah basically, plus the Democrats will still be the "urban" party. Chicago's not going to shrink that much in population, would it?

Honestly, a more interesting question would be why Michigan goes Dem (since Detroit is smaller and declining faster than Chicago). It's Dem on this map due to circumstances specific to my timeline; in general, it's likely that it would behave more like its GOP-leaning neighbors.

I don't think Chicago will shrink *that* much either.  However, if the GOP is becoming a more secular, global-minded, and fiscally conservative party, the people living in the Cook, DuPage, Lake, etc. suburbs, should be returning home to the GOP in enough numbers to give Illinois to the GOP.

The past 8 months of Trump's presidency have shattered any façade that Trumpism  actually is a socially moderate, global-minded fiscal conservative.

My post was in response to NJ's characterization of IL in the 2030s on his/her "Sun and Moon" political fanfic.