Future Realignment Possibilities? (user search)
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  Future Realignment Possibilities? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Future Realignment Possibilities?  (Read 8665 times)
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xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« on: August 27, 2017, 10:29:45 AM »



Obviously, muh trend R whites means that white voters of all ages in every part of the country will vote like they do in Mississippi (which will be Likely D because muh demographics.) The trends that happened in the 2016 election will obviously continue foreverz, and Kansas is a Toss-Up because muh educateds (doesn't apply in the PNW or NE) and the Sunbelt will be a permanent Democratic stronghold, except NV and NM, since they trended R in 2016, so obviously Republicans will always be competitive in those states, not to mention that NV polls say that it will be close, and we should always trust NV polls.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2017, 04:29:33 PM »

In all seriousness, I don't see a true realignment happening in the next 20 years. I think we'll just see some things slowly shift. I definitely don't buy the whole WA/OR trending R while MS/AL trend D obsession, because we're not seeing the same kind of racial polarization in every part of the country, and in some parts of the country, it's really rural/urban polarization, which is why WA/OR are trending Democratic, not Republican. It's not the case that WA/OR are only Democratic because of "the culture wars." The political leanings or both states are more complex than that, and Republicans moving slightly left on social issues (which I see no sign of happening) won't magically make these states more competitive.



This is what the map could look like around 2032, IMO, though I could be totally wrong.
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