IL. Gov. race

[ill ind]

  I wouldn't quite count out Blagojevich yet.  Remember, even if Jim Edgar does run, he will probably face a contentious GOP primary.  There is certainly a portion of the Illinois GOP that will not want to nominate a moderate such as Edgar.  Blago certainly has low poll numbers, and that doesn't help his case, but as it appears now he will not have any challenger in the primary.  That being said, I have read that there are committments for up to 10 million to finance an Edgar campaign.  The question is how much of that will he have to spend to fend off a conservative challenger in the GOP primary, how much money will he have to face Blago who will be sitting pretty with 15 million plus in the bank after the primary, and how much damage will have occurred to Edgar due to a possible negative campaign.
  It will be interesting

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  I firmly believe that Edgar will have a primary challenge should he choose to run.  The Illinois GOP is simply that divided.  I can't see the outspoken conservative wing of the party backing down to let Edgar run unchallenged.  Believe me after the displays of the last couple of elections (Pat O'Malley, Alan Keyes etc. etc.) 'party unity' is by no means an effective way of clearing the slate for a 'preferred' candidate in this state.
  If clearing the primary field is a condition of him running, then he won't run.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  The Il-17 district was created as it was for 1 reason and 1 reason only--to bring in heavily Democratic areas of Decatur and Springfield into the district to protect incumbent Democratic congressman Lane Evans who had a couple of really close races in is district's former layout.

  As far as the Governor's race is concerned, there is indeed a huge amount of buzz concerning Jim Edgar entering.  Personally I still say he will say no due to health and family (Mrs. Edgar) reasons, but I've been wrong before.

  Like I said earlier, he has a long way to go to win.  Despite his dismal approval numbers one would be very foolish to count out Rod B. yet.  Sometimes I think that the buzz is more about the Il GOP grasping at straws more than anything else.  They are grasping at anything that may give them some hope of victory.  We went through this last year with Edgar and then Mike Ditka possible getting into the race against Obama.

  A big unknown out there now is the George Ryan trial.  A Chicago Sun-Times story today had Ryan's former chief of Staff Scott Fawell stating basically that Ryan only continued the dealings his predecessor did, but took it a bit higher.  Ryan's predecessor as S of S--Jim Edgar.  Before all is said and done, the Democratic spin machine is surely going to try and tie Edgar to the corruption in the Secretary of State's office under Geo. Ryan.

  All and all, it's going to be a down in the mud political season for us in Illinois.  That's what Edgar has to face--even in the GOP primary.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on which side of the aisle you stand, Muon 2's analysis that there will be a bruising primary in the Illinois GOP is probably indeed correct.  There is definitely no love lost between the conservative wing of the party and Judy Baar Topinka whom they blame for their defeats, the Kennedy assassination, the sinking of the Titanic and every other possible calamity that has happened.  By the same token, many of JBT's supporters have no use for what they consider the 'looney' right wing of the party.
  Should be good news for Rod-O, but who knows what an the feds investigations will lead to there.
  An interesting next 4 monthis in Illinois it will be.  Time to get on the roller coaster ride now.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  If Eisendrath merely got his name on the ballot, it would suprise many pundits how many votes he would get.  14 million or not, Rod B is not exactly Mr. Popularity even in his own party.

Ill Ilm

[ill ind]

  Rich Miller has it up on his Capitol Fax blog site that Edwin Eisendrath is indeed in the Democratic primary running against Gov Hairdo.  Should be an interesting spring.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  Today Illinois GOP chairman Andrew McKenna is meeting with the 5 announced GOP candidates for governor.  It appears to be an effort to winnow the field a bit, and avoid a potentially divisive primary.
  As of right now all 5 candidates have stated that they are in for the long haul, however if I had to pick someone to get out, I say that it would have to be Ron Gidwitz who is still polling 4 or 5% havind already spent over 2 million on adds to get his name out there.
  I think it is McKenna's intention to have the party rally around Judy Baar Topinka and avoid the expense of a primary and be in a better financial, and image (no intra-party divisiveness) position, to take on Gov. Blago.  I don't know how effective it will be, as I doubt that all 4 challengers to Topinka will depart the race.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  On Sunday morning, former Chicago alderman Edwin Eisendrath is going to announce his candidacy in the Democratic primary against incompetant.......er...... incumbent governor Rod Blagojevich.
  No pundits give him much of a chance, but here is where there may be a suprising showing because Blagojevich is intensely disliked even in his own party.  A good showing by Eisendrath will definitely show a weak Blagojevich.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  I guess I forgot to add, that Eisendrath's first order of business will be staying on the ballot.  Illinois has  a history of totally archaic and assinine ballot challenges. i.e signatures thrown out becuae the collector had the wrong page number on the form and so forth.
  1 person (Tully) always does thge challenges for the Dems, and I expect some sort of challenge to Mr. Eisendrath's filing.
  Not to be outdone, the Republicans are just as guilty as GOP candidate Judy Baar Topinka's office has been investigated in connection with tossing the Libertarian Party off the ballot back in 1998.  Problem was that the work seems to have been done by her office employees on state time.
  Gotta love Illinois politics.

Ill Ind