IL. Gov. race

[muon2]

LaHood would have been an interesting candidate in the race. He is a downstater and very popular in his district. His constituents basically wanted him to stay, and with a crowded race for Gov, Congress is an easier run for him.

LaHood is also very well respected in political circles. In Congress during the impeachment hearings, he was the consensus choice on both sides of the aisle to preside.

[muon2]

The Bloomington IL Pantagraph had an interesting editorial today about the withdrawal of LaHood. They are linking it to some other candidate moves and connecting the dots. This is not the first speculation I've heard along this direction, but it's probably the clearest.

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[muon2]

He's Congressman for the Peoria area isn't he?

Yes, IL 18 includes all of the Peoria area as well as a number of rural counties along the Illinois river and the northern portions of Springfield and Decatur.

[muon2]

I have to say this is not looking good for Blago.

Here's a link to the Sun-Times for those who are curious. There's geeting to be a striking resemblance to his predecessor's administration.

The lead two paragraphs are as follows

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[muon2]

This, the teachers pension, and the cap pain and suffering, might kill Blago.

I'm starting to think he should just let this election go.

Ironically, the potential Dem challengers for Gov have recently taken themselves out of the race. Rep Franks was talked about all spring, but officially announced he was out. The Dem party committed hard to Blago this summer.

[muon2]

Whats up with John Shimkus (IL 19-R)? I saw him on C-SPAN last year and he seemed okay, although he's probably more conservative than I'd be comfortable with since he's from the extreme downstate, by Kentucky. Is he expected to seek higher office at some point?

I've heard no talk about any higher offices for Shimkus. He's a solid 5-term Congressman who represents a large district that stretches from his home area in the St. Louis suburbs to almost Indiana, and from Springfield to the Ohio River. He faced Rep. Phelps (D) in 2002 when Phelps district was removed due to reapportionment.

[muon2]

Former Gov Edgar spoke today at a major business luncheon. He said nothing about his plans, but that alone has created a huge buzz that an announcement to run is only days away. I suspect the buzz may be accurate. I also agree that a there will be a primary challenger to Edgar, maybe a couple of challengers.

[muon2]

Other candidates who have been waiting in the wings will now have to commit on a run. In particular, Treasurer Topinka should announce her plans soon.

[muon2]

I'm betting the GOP's next move is to recruit David Duke to move to Illinois and run for Governor.

Don't confuse the situation last year after the Ryan affair hit the media with the current gubernatorial stiutation. The IL GOP pushed Jack Ryan as a favorite and secured a comforatble win for him, then found more baggage than they expected. There was disarray since no front runner could either get consensus, or could be persuaded to replace Jack.

There is a solid group of contenders this year, much like the same point in the 2003 Senate race. The primary will be a tough battle, but if Blagojevich is the nominee, the IL GOP will rally around their nominee. Obviously, who the nominee is will be central to the form of the general election campaign. But, I don't forsee any GOP faction siting out against Blagojevich in Nov 2006, regardless of the GOP nominee.

[muon2]

Rich Miller is one of the state's top non-partisan pundits. He writes the daily Capitol Fax which is a must-read for the IL political world. He also has a weekly column, which points out the looming issue in the Guv's race. Blagojevich has tried to divert attention with a sweeping proposal for child health care. It remains to be seen if that will carry him past the building investigations.

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[muon2]

GRod is counting on his children's health care initative to boost his numbers. The plan has some people interested, but the public is not prepared to put a lot of trust there while scandals are popping up every week. His asset has been a lack of a GOP candidate to pull out of the pack as a standard-bearer.

[muon2]

I was a guest at State Treas Topinka's fundraiser this evening. She still has not decided about the governor's race, but announced that a decision will be made early next week. The punditry in the state are leaning toward a negative decision on Governor, and she will run for reelection as Treasurer instead.

[muon2]

I was a guest at State Treas Topinka's fundraiser this evening. She still has not decided about the governor's race, but announced that a decision will be made early next week. The punditry in the state are leaning toward a negative decision on Governor, and she will run for reelection as Treasurer instead.

The punditry don't always get it right.

The big news this morning is that Topinka has decided that she will enter the GOP race for Gov. No official announcement, but every major media outlet is reporting the news. It looks like there will be a bruising battle in the GOP primary between the moderate and conservative factions.

[muon2]

The last week has all been about Topink'a entry on the GOP side. Some early poll numbers were reported by Rich Miller and others:

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Now there's new talk on the Dem side, including this article in Sunday's Chicago Tribune.

Here's the story:

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[muon2]

The latest Survey USA numbers continue to look bleak for Blagojevich. He has remained at or near the current 38% approve, 57% disapprove response since May. This comes despite his highly publicized health care plan for Kids. There is talk that he may not formally announce for reelection until January - after the filing deadline in two weeks.

On the GOP side, State Treasurer Topinka will make a multi-city formal announcement tomorrow to run for Gov. That puts five candidates in the race for the GOP nomination. The other five constitutional offices are beginning to take shape as the filing deadline looms.

[muon2]

There are just a few days left before petition filing, and moves are still in the air.

Last week the chair of the state GOP sat down with the five announced candidates for Gov to encourage a shrinking of the field. That happened today, but not as expected. State Sen. Rauschenburger announced that he would instead run for Lt Gov with the intent of forming a ticket with former CEO and state school baord chair Gidwitz. Both Rauchenburger and Gidwitz were way back in the polls, so all are watching to see whether this alliance might result in an upswing for them.

[muon2]

Primary filing is complete and any petition objections have been filed.  Here are the contenders:

For Governor
Republicans
Bill Brady
Jim Oberweis
Judy Baar Topinka
Ron Gidwitz
Andy Martin

Democrats
Rod R. Blagojevich
Phillip J. Sitkowski (objection pending)
Edwin Eisendrath

There are also some primary contests for the other statewide officers.

For Lieutentant Governor
Republicans
Jeremy B. Cole (objection pending)
Sandy Wegman
Joe Birkett
Lawrence L. Bruckner
Steven J. Rauschenberger

For Treasurer
Democrats
Alexander Giannoulias (objection pending)
Paul L. Mangieri

The results of the objections should be known in the next 3 weeks or so.

[muon2]

Why is it that half of Illinois politicians have entirely unspellable last names?

The City of Big Shoulders used a lot of immigrant shoulders from central and eastern Europe. I find it quite helpful that my grandmother had such a name. It became my mother's maiden name, and thus the code word for those ubiquitous telephone credit verifications. I doubt it could be guessed, and then spelled correctly without considerable research.