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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Should've left Pangolins alone, Apocrypha)
  2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)  (Read 1397 times)
dw93
DWL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,103
United States


« on: September 11, 2017, 09:11:07 pm »



Marco Rubio | Scott Walker 275 EV 49% PV
Hillary Clinton | Tim Kaine 263 EV 45% PV

Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, New Hampshire, and ME 2nd are all decided by less than 5%. Rubio does worse in Iowa and Ohio, but still wins them none the less.
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dw93
DWL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,103
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2017, 12:31:47 pm »

If Rubio's glass jaw doesn't shatter:



Rubio/Kasich: 276 EV
Clinton/Kaine: 262 EV

Popular vote is anyone's guess, Rubio, IMHO eeks it out here. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina are all decided by less than 3%. Hillary does better in Ohio and Iowa than OTL, but still loses them by 5% or more. She also loses Florida by a bigger margin.

If Hillary shatters the glass ceiling and the glass jaw:



Clinton/Kaine: 285 EV
Rubio/Kasich: 253 EV

She wins the popular vote by around the same margin that she did against Trump. As is the case with a Rubio victory, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina are all decided by less than 3% but in this case so are Iowa and Maine's Second District, which she wins, and Ohio. Florida goes unchanged from the Rubio victory scenario. I know a lot of people think or thought Hillary had a landslide in the bag, but even in 2015 and 2016 I didn't think it was the case. She's no Bill Clinton or Barack Obama when it comes to campaigning and it's hard for a party to win a 3rd consecutive election. The only time against Trump that I thought she'd meet or exceed Obama's 2012 margin of victory was after the access Hollywood tape came out, but once the Comey letter came out, that changed.
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