2020 Redistricting Predictions
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  2020 Redistricting Predictions
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Author Topic: 2020 Redistricting Predictions  (Read 1385 times)
Plate
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« on: August 14, 2017, 12:16:12 AM »
« edited: August 14, 2017, 08:48:32 AM by Plate »

Post what you predict the 2020 district maps will look like here.
PREDICTIONS, NOT DREAM DISTRICTS.

Just assume that the 2020 population density is near the same as the 2010 density I guess.

Also, these are what the districts will be in each state if the Census projections are right:

Alabama: 6
Alaska: 1
Arizona: 9
Arkansas: 4
California: 53
Colorado: 8
Connecticut: 5
Delaware: 1
Florida: 28
Georgia: 14
Idaho: 2
Illinois: 17
Indiana: 9
Iowa: 4
Kansas: 4
Kentucky: 6
Louisiana: 6
Maryland: 8
Massachusetts: 9
Michigan: 13
Minnesota: 7
Mississippi: 4
Missouri: 8
Montana: 2
Nebraska: 3
Nevada: 4
New Hampshire: 2
New Jersey: 12
New Mexico: 3
New York: 26
North Carolina: 14
North Dakota: 1
Ohio: 15
Oklahoma: 5
Oregon: 6
Pennsylvania: 17
Rhode Island: 2
South Carolina: 7
South Dakota: 1
Tennessee: 9
Texas: 39
Utah: 4
Vermont: 1
Virginia: 11
Washington: 10
West Virginia: 2
Wisconsin: 8
Wyoming: 1


Anyway, I was able to do Michigan's 13 districts easily since the 2020 projected population is basically the same as the 2010 population.

http://imgur.com/a/1bZU8

http://imgur.com/a/TJIHi
Detroit Area Closeup

The dark blue district is district 1
The green district is district 2
The purple district is district 3
The red district is district 4
The yellow district is district 5
The teal district is district 6
The orange district is district 7
The bluish-purple district is district 8
The turquoise district is district 9
The hot pink district is district 10
The neon green district is district 11
The light blue district is district 12
The coral district is district 13

Some major things that happen here include:
Levin gets combined with Lawrence in district 9. The 11th district is like the little "ghetto pack" full of all the ghetto, cruddy areas of Wayne County like Detroit, River Rouge, Lincoln Park, etc that the Michigan Legislature packs together to bleach all the other districts. Walberg's district extends to the Trump voting areas of Wayne County.

This is if that God awful commission doesn't become a thing

We're gonna need to pin this soon
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2017, 11:51:30 AM »



NH's never seems to change too much
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2017, 12:45:09 PM »

Rhode Island is pretty much guaranteed to go down to a single district.

Also Michigan State Law prohibits excessive county splits IIRC.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2017, 12:46:31 PM »

I bet Muon's method would put Nashua and Manchester in the same district.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2017, 01:52:00 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2017, 01:53:45 PM by Singletxguyforfun »





I'd like to see something more like this, but if they havent done it by now, idk if they ever will. This all but guarantees a 1-1 party split
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Nyvin
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2017, 02:12:29 PM »





I'd like to see something more like this, but if they havent done it by now, idk if they ever will. This all but guarantees a 1-1 party split

I think the reason we never see something like this is because it basically divides the state into "Rich New Hampshire" and "Poor New Hampshire".    The representatives from either party probably don't like the NH-2 district.

I know in a lot of Ann Kuster's rallies she frequently toutes all the developments in Nashua/Salem as part of her record.   She probably doesn't want to lose those urbans areas in the south.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2017, 02:24:02 PM »



doubt massachusetts would change much either
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2017, 02:26:53 PM »





I'd like to see something more like this, but if they havent done it by now, idk if they ever will. This all but guarantees a 1-1 party split

I think the reason we never see something like this is because it basically divides the state into "Rich New Hampshire" and "Poor New Hampshire".    The representatives from either party probably don't like the NH-2 district.

I know in a lot of Ann Kuster's rallies she frequently toutes all the developments in Nashua/Salem as part of her record.   She probably doesn't want to lose those urbans areas in the south.

Well What're Kuster's numbers usually in the south? Those are some really Republican towns like Litchfield, Hudson, Pelham, Windham, Salem, and Atkinson. Usually they're like 55-60% republican so I'm not too sure she'd be sad to see them go. I always found it bizarre that Salem and Derry were in different districts myself
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