Northern Plains

[Virginian87]

I'd say either South Dakota or Nebraska is the most Republican state of this group.  But Montana will be the first of this group to go Democrat.  Montanans like Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, giving him a 57 percent approval rating, higher than either of his two Republican predecessors at this point in their tenures.  I believe Democrats also took control of the state legislature last November as well.  Sen. Max Baucus, a pro-choice, pro-gun, pro-death penalty Democrat, has an approval rating of 58 percent.  

Although Republican Sen. Conrad Burns has approval ratings near there, he barely won re-election over Schweitzer in 2000.  He may also be linked to a scandal involving Jack Abramoff.  Burns allegedly received over $136,000 in campaign contributions through Abramoff and then directed $3 million to the Saginaw Chippewa Tribe of Michigan, an Abramoff client and one of the wealthiest tribes in the country from a program intended to help the neediest tribes fix delapidated schools.  He faces a battle against either Montana State Senate President and organic farmer Jon Tester or Montana State Auditor John Morrison next year, both of which appear to me to be populist-leaning Democrats.  If someone could elaborate on that, that would be helpful.

I think with a moderate, populist-leaning Democrat, Montana could be carried in a presidential election.  It is not impossible.

[Virginian87]

I still say it's both the Dakotas.

Why do you say that?  Perhaps North Dakota, but if you recall South Dakotans just booted the Senate Minority Leader last year.  Though with military base closures there, perhaps things might change.