Which candidate is a better fit for Virginia?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama due to the Doug Wilder effect. Clinton may be hurt here due to the Tobacco lawsuit her husband initiated in the 90's. However, Va is now voting for the prez winner so if she wins, she will have won Va.

[Smash255]

Obama is a better fit, but it wouldn't surprise me if Clinton out performs Obama's 08 and 2012 numbers due to Virginia's continued trend.

[libertpaulian]

Looks like Clinton did better.  Obama's Virginia margin was equivalent to the national average in 2008, and his margin was 1% more Republican than the national average in 2012.

Clinton, however, was able to make Virginia 3% more Democratic than the national average last year.

[AN63093]

Clinton may have done better, but that doesn't mean she's necessarily the better fit for VA.  There's a couple problems with that conclusion.  First off, it doesn't account for the fact that VA is trending D over time, regardless of candidate.  Second, it doesn't account for the fact that Trump is about the worst possible fit for VA, so the state was almost guaranteed to trend more in '16.

The only way you'd ever know for sure is if you could control time and space and somehow run Obama against a candidate, then go back in time and run Clinton against the same candidate in the same year.

The only thing we can conclude with any certainty is that both Obama and Clinton are relatively good fits for VA as far as Dems go, and Romney is a pretty good fit as far Republicans go.

[libertpaulian]

Clinton may have done better, but that doesn't mean she's necessarily the better fit for VA.  There's a couple problems with that conclusion.  First off, it doesn't account for the fact that VA is trending D over time, regardless of candidate.  Second, it doesn't account for the fact that Trump is about the worst possible fit for VA, so the state was almost guaranteed to trend more in '16.

The only way you'd ever know for sure is if you could control time and space and somehow run Obama against a candidate, then go back in time and run Clinton against the same candidate in the same year.

The only thing we can conclude with any certainty is that both Obama and Clinton are relatively good fits for VA as far as Dems go, and Romney is a pretty good fit as far Republicans go.

I'm wondering if Kasich or Rubio would have won VA.  I mean, sure, they lean more to the right, but they aren't all about "Drain the Swamp" like Trump is.  "Drain the Swamp" to NOVA people probably means "I'm gonna lose my job once he gets sworn in."

[AN63093]

Good question.

I'd say it's within the realm of possibility, since either Kasich or Rubio were much better fits for VA than Trump was, but I think Clinton still holds it.  Consider that even if the R candidate in '16 had gotten Romney numbers, it still wouldn't have been enough.  D turnout in Fairfax would have to go back to practically '04 levels.

The R would have to flip somewhere around 75k votes or so, on top of getting Romney numbers, and I just don't see where he gets them.  There have been too many Dems moving in state- consider that Trump actually got more raw votes than Bush did in '04.

Maybe if the D candidate was Sanders, then Kasich or Rubio would have a more realistic shot.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I actually think Obama was a better candidate for the state at-large. While there were already trends happening, Obama didn't collapse outside the urban crescent like Clinton did. I think 2016 isn't a really good indicator for future elections in Virginia because Trump was the worst possible fir for NoVa and Richmond while Clinton was the worst possibly fit for SW VA and Southside.