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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  VA-Q: Northam +6
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Author Topic: VA-Q: Northam +6  (Read 1614 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: August 09, 2017, 12:36:48 pm »

44/38.
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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2017, 12:38:04 pm »

Why didnt you just put Quinnipiac?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2017, 12:39:37 pm »

Seems about right. Northam probably won't win by a lot, but Gillespie has little room for error when it comes to his path to victory.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2017, 12:40:11 pm »

Democrats lead the generic ballot for the state legislature 49/38

Trump approval: 36/61
McAuliffe approval: 51/35
Kaine approval: 54/38
Warner approval: 59/30
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2017, 12:43:47 pm »

Truly the fact that Mcauliffe managed to be a popular governor is one of the most surprising events in VA politics lol.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2017, 01:06:39 pm »

Considering that this is Quinnipiac, I wouldn't say it's a very bad poll for Gillespie. Still Lean D, though.
There are still many undecided to be honest.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2017, 01:09:13 pm »

Northam just put up his first TV ad, so hopefully he can increase his name ID which is still much lower than Gillespie's.

Hopefully they asked 2018 questions and release them tomorrow.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2017, 01:37:01 pm »

Northam just put up his first TV ad, so hopefully he can increase his name ID which is still much lower than Gillespie's.

Hopefully they asked 2018 questions and release them tomorrow.

I have yet to see a general election ad in the DMV from either candidate.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2017, 01:49:22 pm »

Great poll!
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2017, 01:54:08 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.
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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2017, 02:06:14 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.

I would argue during the last cycle, the had an R-lean if anything.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2017, 02:39:48 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.

I would argue during the last cycle, the had an R-lean if anything.

Yeah...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243701.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249903.0

To be fair they are just as often wrong in both directions. They had Gardner +10 in 2014 LOL

I've usually disregarded them and compared them to Gravis in my mind.  Figured they're always off.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2017, 02:40:53 pm »


As I recall, August was a pretty bad month for Trump. He was getting a lot of high single digit national polling deficits then. If Clinton had won nationally by 7 or 8 points, don't you think Virginia would have landed close to or past +10 points for her?

Of course, not to say it doesn't have a D lean, but I fully expect the never-ending scandals that Trump was hit with to actually have caused his support to drop as low as the averages showed, and if the election were held during one of those rough spots, like the AH tape or the Kahn drama, that Trump would have lost by a substantial margin as the polls showed.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2017, 02:46:12 pm »

From all the polls I've seen from Quinnipiac, I think they have a lean towards Dems now.  Tossup to Tilt D still, a lot of undecideds that can be swayed Gillespie's way.

I would argue during the last cycle, the had an R-lean if anything.

Yeah...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=243701.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249903.0

First was post DNC and the second was post Access Hollywood. Also the Clinton number was about right, it' just almost 100% of the undecideds broke to Trump.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2017, 02:48:14 pm »


As I recall, August was a pretty bad month for Trump. He was getting a lot of high single digit national polling deficits then. If Clinton had won nationally by 7 or 8 points, don't you think Virginia would have landed close to or past +10 points for her?

Of course, not to say it doesn't have a D lean, but I fully expect the never-ending scandals that Trump was hit with to actually have caused his support to drop as low as the averages showed, and if the election were held during one of those rough spots, like the AH tape or the Kahn drama, that Trump would have lost by a substantial margin as the polls showed.
Indeed. I remember 538 had Clinton winning South Carolina in its now-cast for a time.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2017, 06:56:02 pm »

I've seen someone lead 44/38 before in a poll....didn't end well. Hope the Democrats can actually hold this.
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