The quintessential swing state

[cvparty]

Which one of these states would you consider the quintessential swing state? i.e. it's competitive between the two parties in a close election and reflects the country as a whole? Consider presidential elections as well as the state's politics at large.

(You can choose up to 3 if it's hard to choose only one)

[TheSaint250]

Easily Florida.

[cvparty]

Easily Florida.

I think Florida's too Republican leaning. Absolutely, it's a perfect swing state in presidential elections because it's always close, but relatively, it's always more Republican than the country. In 2012 Obama won comfortably but barely held on to Florida, and even in 2008 when Obama won the country in a landslide Florida was still close. And in local politics Republicans completely dominate.

[TheSaint250]

Easily Florida.

I think Florida's too Republican leaning. Absolutely, it's a perfect swing state in presidential elections because it's always close, but relatively, it's always more Republican than the country. In 2012 Obama won comfortably but barely held on to Florida, and even in 2008 when Obama won the country in a landslide Florida was still close. And in local politics Republicans completely dominate.

I guess that makes sense. I actually just looked back at state legislature makeups. I never really realized how long FL's legislature had been GOP dominated

[cvparty]

I would say New Hampshire. It's always close to how the country votes (it actually leaned Republican in 2016 and nearly flipped). Also, it has a Republican governor and a Republican state legislature, but on the national stage it has 2 Democratic senators and 2 Democratic House reps.

[Skunk]

Before 2016 I probably would've said Nevada. 1 GOP and 1 Dem Senator, two competitive House districts, voted for the election winner every time since 1976, etc.

Demographic trends have made it to Democratic-leaning though, so it's lost that status.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The only state right now that is a swing state without a doubt is Florida. After that I guess it could be New Hampshire, though right now it's reminding me a lot of Wisconsin in the '00 and '04 elections when Gore and Kerry won in a nail-bitter.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, in that order from most to least likely to flip, are also in question. Whether 2016 was a one-off due to unique circumstances remains to be seen. Kind of like Indiana in '08.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[JGibson]

Florida and New Hampshire.

[AN63093]

cvparty, your questions are confusing.

A swing state is a state that can be reasonably won by either party, but then you state you are looking for states that "reflects the country as a whole."  Well, those are two different things.  For example, NH is a swing state, but is most certainly not a US in miniature.

A state like OH might be a candidate for that, in that it has a good mix of urban areas and rural, and its urban areas are a mix of different types, i.e., it has MSAs that resemble old-style rust-belt cities (Cleveland) and metros that have new economies and hot growth like the Sun Belt (Columbus).  But then it seems like you want to know what the closest states are, and OH doesn't fit in that category either.

The closest state in the US was MI last cycle, but I don't think is a perennial toss-up, nor does it most closely resemble the country as a whole.

So what exactly is it that you are asking?

[Ye We Can]

New Hampshire.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Florida, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania

[cvparty]

cvparty, your questions are confusing.

A swing state is a state that can be reasonably won by either party, but then you state you are looking for states that "reflects the country as a whole."  Well, those are two different things.  For example, NH is a swing state, but is most certainly not a US in miniature.

A state like OH might be a candidate for that, in that it has a good mix of urban areas and rural, and its urban areas are a mix of different types, i.e., it has MSAs that resemble old-style rust-belt cities (Cleveland) and metros that have new economies and hot growth like the Sun Belt (Columbus).  But then it seems like you want to know what the closest states are, and OH doesn't fit in that category either.

The closest state in the US was MI last cycle, but I don't think is a perennial toss-up, nor does it most closely resemble the country as a whole.

So what exactly is it that you are asking?

I don't mean an absolute swing state but a relative swing state. one that's like the country. When I say a state reflects the country what I mean is just with respect to political strength, not its urban-rural landscape and demographics per se (although those tend to be strong factors of political strength).
For example Democrats have had an advantage in presidential elections in the recent past. They've led in the popular vote 6 times in the past 7 elections. A relative swing state would tend to vote for Democrats in those elections. In close elections, it would be competitive, and if the country votes in a landslide for Republicans (or Democrats), it would do the same. Absolute and relative overlap somewhat especially these days, since it's polarized and presidential elections tend to be close.

[AN63093]

It sounds like you're just wondering what the state closest to the national PV is.  For '16 that was NV, for '12 it was VA.  I'm not sure either state is a 'quintessential' swing state, in fact, VA may not be a swing state at all anymore.

If we're looking at states that have generally been close to the national PV over time.. VA was the closest from '08-'12, but as of '16, those days are probably over, as it's trending D faster than CO and WA by now.  Before '08, it was NV in '04. 

So NV has popped up a couple times, but I hesitate to predict it'll be that close to the national PV going forward.

If we're trying to figure out what states are generally within a couple % of the national PV going back 20, 30 years... I don't have time to run all the calculations right now, but just by eyeballing it... maybe NH?

[cvparty]

It sounds like you're just wondering what the state closest to the national PV is.  For '16 that was NV, for '12 it was VA.  I'm not sure either state is a 'quintessential' swing state, in fact, VA may not be a swing state at all anymore.

If we're looking at states that have generally been close to the national PV over time.. VA was the closest from '08-'12, but as of '16, those days are probably over, as it's trending D faster than CO and WA by now.  Before '08, it was NV in '04.  

So NV has popped up a couple times, but I hesitate to predict it'll be that close to the national PV going forward.

If we're trying to figure out what states are generally within a couple % of the national PV going back 20, 30 years... I don't have time to run all the calculations right now, but just by eyeballing it... maybe NH?

I don't just mean presidential elections, I mean the politics of the states in general - states that are comfortable with either party and back and forth vote both parties into power in the senate, house, state senate and house, governorships, etc.

[Technocracy Timmy]

It sounds like you're just wondering what the state closest to the national PV is.  For '16 that was NV, for '12 it was VA.  I'm not sure either state is a 'quintessential' swing state, in fact, VA may not be a swing state at all anymore.

If we're looking at states that have generally been close to the national PV over time.. VA was the closest from '08-'12, but as of '16, those days are probably over, as it's trending D faster than CO and WA by now.  Before '08, it was NV in '04.  

So NV has popped up a couple times, but I hesitate to predict it'll be that close to the national PV going forward.

If we're trying to figure out what states are generally within a couple % of the national PV going back 20, 30 years... I don't have time to run all the calculations right now, but just by eyeballing it... maybe NH?

I don't just mean presidential elections, I mean the politics of the states in general - states that are comfortable with either party and back and forth vote both parties into power in the senate, house, state senate and house, governorships, etc.

Oh well then it can't be Florida. The Democrats do fine in the state at the national level but they're God awful at the state and local level politics there.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Ohio.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Ohio.

I voted Ohio as well. It seems to be the best state given OP's description. All it's missing are Hispanics I think (and it might tilt a little more republican than the nation at large).

[Senator-elect Spark]

Florida by far

[BlueDogDemocrat]

It has to be Florida mostly due to its results always being close in the presidential elections witch decides such a big amount of electoral votes.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Florida consistently has a very faint reddish tinge to the purple.  I think Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire are all good options, though WI may wind up being another Iowa/Missouri.  Also, I think we are heading towards Minnesota being on that list, though it's not there yet.  Nevada is also stubbornly hanging on for now.

[Alabama_Indy10]

cvparty, your questions are confusing.

A swing state is a state that can be reasonably won by either party, but then you state you are looking for states that "reflects the country as a whole."  Well, those are two different things.  For example, NH is a swing state, but is most certainly not a US in miniature.

A state like OH might be a candidate for that, in that it has a good mix of urban areas and rural, and its urban areas are a mix of different types, i.e., it has MSAs that resemble old-style rust-belt cities (Cleveland) and metros that have new economies and hot growth like the Sun Belt (Columbus).  But then it seems like you want to know what the closest states are, and OH doesn't fit in that category either.

The closest state in the US was MI last cycle, but I don't think is a perennial toss-up, nor does it most closely resemble the country as a whole.

So what exactly is it that you are asking?

Quintessential - Representing the most perfect or typical example of a quality or class

[Lord Wreath]

Easily Florida; it's always close.