Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?

[Edgeofnight]

Here is more hackisness on my part.

Ratings: Safe (90%), Very Likely (70%), Likely (50%), Lean (30%), Tossup (Green), Independents are in Yellow in case it becomes relevant in the future.

Seat Changes under current predictions:
AK: I to R
IL: R to D
MI: R to D
NM: R to D
WI: R to D

Once again, I'll justify some of the more controversial ones.

AK:Begich entering the race is most likely to hurt Walker more than anything. There hasn't been a whole lot of three way polling for this race, but Walker and Begich are likely going to pull from the same base of voters. This race is going to be interesting to watch, but right now the Republicans have an edge, no matter how slight.

CT:Yes Malloy is very unpopular right now, I'm aware. Ned Lamont is not Malloy, and he isn't a terrible candidate either despite his lengthy losing record. Connecticut is still a blue state in a Democratic friendly environment. This is certainly one of the GOP's best chances to flip a Dem Held seat, but I would have to contend that Lamont, if he clears the primary, will enter the general the slight favorite.

NV:Now I know what you are gonna say, "Blue state in a dem friendly year." But to that I say, no. Yes I just used this argument for CT, but NV is less blue than CT is without a doubt. And Laxalt starts off as the better known and better funded candidate in this race. While I have no doubt that this race will be competitive and will probably shift towards Sisolak, if the election where to happen tomorrow I Laxalt will be the favorite.

OH:I love Codray as much as the next partisan hack, but at this exact moment, its not clear to me that he is a sure thing, or even that he is favored. The two of them are both moderately well known in state politics. Codray has the national environment going for him, as well as the fact that he seems to be a unifying candidate, and some decent fundraising, and the fact that he's sharing the Ballot with Sherrod Brown (who seems to be heading towards a comfortable re-election). However, I still can't help but be cautious about this race. Ohio was more Republican than Georgia was in 2016, and almost as Republican as Iowa and Texas. Add this to the fact that polling doesn't seem to be really reliable in this race. They are all within the margin of error or come from a shady source etc. In short, its deff not unwinnable for DeWine, even if all conventional wisdom says he should be the underdog.

WI: I don't seem the hype around any of the current candidates. The Dem primary is a mess, although led by Evers at the moment. Recent Special elections and the Judicial Election suggest that the Democrats are at an advantage in WI, but Walker is likely to bring in lots of money from the national GOP, and that will likely keep him in the race. To keep it short (and because I have one more state to write about with only 5 minutes left on break), Walker is the underdog in his re-election, but is not out of the race yet.

KS:What in the world is happening here? The Republican primary is contentious, the Democratic Primary is contentious, there is a strong third party candidate in the race, One candidate is running with his wife as his running mate, there are a bunch of highschoolers and a New Yorker running, and another New Yorker and a literal Dog filed for this election.  Obviously, the two big candidates on the R side is incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach, but there are also a bunch of other candidates that I won't go into detail about because I doubt they will win, but mentioning their existence because upsets happen. On the Democratic side, the three big candidates are Laura Kelly, a State Senator, Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita, and Josh Svaty, former State Rep. and Former State Agricultural Secretary. And then there is Greg Orman, running third party and making things complicated. Things can really go any way here, while this is going to be a fun election to watch, I have no doubt that this race will ruin many people's predictions, myself included.

[Edgeofnight]

Changing some ratings. Here is a summary of the changes:

Races moving Towards the Republicans:
Kansas: Tossup -->Lean R
New Hampshire: Lean R --> Likely R
Vermont: Likely R --> Very Likely R
Oregon: Safe D --> Very Likely D

Races moving Towards the Democrats:
Arizona: Likely R --> Lean R
Iowa: Lean R --> Tossup
Colorado: Lean D --> Likely D
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Georgia: Likely R --> Tossup

Seats that Flip Under Current Predictions:
Seat Changes under current predictions:
AK: I to R
IL: R to D
MI: R to D
NM: R to D
WI: R to D

Justifying the changes, I'll start with the races that move towards the Republicans

KS: It remains to be seen where most of Orman's votes will come from. He could play the spoiler for either side. In the absence of more polling, I think that it is safest to assume that this Republican State will favor Republicans to some degree.

VT and NH: In VT, Scott's challengers are very weak overall. While one of them could make the magic happen and win, I see it as increasingly unlikely as the campaign progresses. Similar situation in New Hampshire, only I think Kelly is a fairly strong candidate if she can bolster her name recognition. Sununu is also more conservative than Baker or Scott when comparing these races.

OR: There really isn't much that changed in this race, this is more of a correction than a true ratings change. Republicans have enough of a strength in Eastern Oregon that I think considering this race "safe" for the Democrats is a bit generous to them.

Races that Moved Towards the Democrats:
AZ, CO, and IA: Similar to Oregon, these is more of a correction than an actual rating change. I underestimated or overestimated one candidate or another. Basically, I learned more about these races, even if things really didn't change.

IL: Dems seem to be rallying around Prtizker more than I initially thought. Add to this Rauner's direct connection to the family separation policy, and I think its enough to move this race more into the Democratic Column.

GA: This is a combination of things. First, a correction. "Likely R" might have been an overgenerous rating to the Republicans, and I have previously underestimated Abrams as a candidate. Combine this with the fact that I think Kemp is the weaker candidate to have won the Republican runoff, and I think moving this race to tossup is reasonable. I will note that my exact opinion on this race will probably change week to week, so Tossup is probably the safest bet.

Some quick math:
The Democrats winning every seat they are favored in, plus all the tossups, would give them 25 Governorships, or D+9. Even winning just the races they are favored in would result in 20 Democratic Governors, or D+4.
Using a very basic math, and 10 general scenarios, my predictions have a reasonable range for the Democrats of 21 to 30 Governor seats in 2019. I can go more into the methodology of this if people really want to know.