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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?
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Latest 2018 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jaichind (L-NY)MapProfile 11-06 8 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
PragPop (D-MD)MapProfile 07-01 8 D +7 19 (-7) 16 (+7) 1 (0) 0
Republican95 (R-MS)MapProfile 10-30 3 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 0
Aguagon (D-AZ)MapProfile 11-05 1 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
rrussom1 (D-NC)MapProfile 11-06 6 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Checkard (D-OH)MapProfile 04-22 1 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
Politician (D-MA)MapProfile 11-02 111 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
Castro2020 (I-CT)MapProfile 11-03 10 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 0
bluesolid (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 21 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
tmthforu94 (I-KS)MapProfile 11-05 16 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jastone0493 (D-CO)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Lechasseur (R-FL)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +4 23 (-3) 13 (+4) 0 (-1) 0
Liberalrocks (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 3 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
AntonioV (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 7 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
SecureAmerica (R-NM)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
tomhguy (L-GBR)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
OctoCube (R-MA)MapProfile 11-06 2 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
Impartial (D-NY)MapProfile 11-06 4 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
WaterHazard (I-IL)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Horatii (R-MA)MapProfile 11-06 14 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
bluemcdowell (D-WV)
by bluemcdowell on 2019-01-24 @ 09:36:01
Map 11-02 65 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 5
Grassr00ts (R-IL)
by Grassr00ts on 2018-11-06 @ 22:11:10
MapProfile 10-31 1 D +5 21 (-5) 14 (+5) 1 (0) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-11-06 @ 03:33:00
MapProfile 11-05 6 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 1
Beaver2 (D-VA)
by darthpi on 2018-11-05 @ 21:01:35
MapProfile 11-05 1 D +5 22 (-4) 14 (+5) 0 (-1) 1
darthpi (D-PA)
by darthpi on 2018-11-05 @ 20:46:09
MapProfile 11-05 26 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 1
man_of_honor885 (C-PA)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-10-26 @ 21:41:27
Map 10-08 2 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 2
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-10-26 @ 21:37:20
MapProfile 10-07 5 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 3
BushCountry (I-IN)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 10:53:27
MapProfile 09-13 21 D +7 19 (-7) 16 (+7) 1 (0) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-08-15 @ 04:29:01
MapProfile 08-13 4 D +4 23 (-3) 13 (+4) 0 (-1) 1
Politician (D-MA)
by Nik on 2018-07-31 @ 17:03:11
MapProfile 07-27 79 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: Current 2017/2018 Gubernatorial Predictions?  (Read 16064 times)
The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
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« on: August 06, 2017, 03:08:41 pm »
« edited: August 06, 2017, 03:41:54 pm by slightlyburnttoast »



Closest races: NH, MD, ME, FL, AK, VT
Dem. pickups: MI, ME, FL, NM, IL
Rep. pickups: AK

Post-2018 map of governorships:



NH, AK, and FL could really go either way though.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2017, 03:45:40 pm »

Dems will win KS or WI
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2017, 05:14:49 pm »
« Edited: August 06, 2017, 05:16:42 pm by Progressive Democrat »

90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2017, 06:28:33 pm »

I think it's incredible that in the most Democratic state in the nation, in a Mid-Term that by all accounts will be heavily Democratic .... a Republican Governor is virtually assured of reelection
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2017, 04:28:25 am »

My prediction: FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, NH, NM and WI flips

D+8
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2017, 09:35:21 am »

I'm making one prediction. 

IL will be Tilt R once Pritzker wins the nom.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2017, 09:42:02 am »

No, it won't, this race won't be a run away race, but even Pritzker can beat Rauner by 5, in a Trump down year.
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Admiral Florida Man
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2017, 07:11:46 pm »

2017:
New Jersey: Likely Democratic Pickup
Virginia: Lean Democratic Hold

2018:



Maine will be Republican if Susan Collins runs. Nevada, Florida, Kansas, and Connecticut are a bit iffy in my mind.
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FDB
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2017, 06:34:21 pm »

deleted
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2017, 06:34:49 pm »

90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god

Please let Rauner survive PLEASE!
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2017, 06:37:49 pm »

90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god
He has announced his retirement already.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/dannel-malloy-connecticut-reelection-2018/index.html
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The Saint
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2017, 06:39:44 pm »

90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup



Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

Don't let me suffer through another Governor Malloy. My god
He has announced his retirement already.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/dannel-malloy-connecticut-reelection-2018/index.html
I think he meant someone like Malloy
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2017, 07:20:32 pm »



With no toss-ups, Walker wins in AK, Democrats win KS, MI, NV, and NH, Republicans win CT, FL, and MD. D+7.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2017, 07:24:59 pm »

As of 8/8/17





Note on IL:  I have 3 ratings for IL, the one in the picture is for Kennedy.

Pritzker:  Tilt R
Kennedy:  Tossup
ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT:  Lean D
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Canis
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2017, 07:35:21 pm »


D+7
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mileslunn
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2017, 11:58:41 pm »


According to Trump all should be dark blue as his popularity is massive, he is the most yugely popular president ever.  The polls and news about his unpopularity are all fake.  And off course any state where the GOP doesn't win was because it was rigged or illegals voter en masse.

That being said in all seriousness generally sounds about right, my only question is with Wisconsin as I thought Scott Walker was not that popular, but is he term limited?  Kansas is another interesting one as although a staunchly GOP state, Sam Brownback has the lowest approval rating of any governor, but I don't believe he is running again.  Connecticut I thought was vulnerable although maybe the anti-Trump sentiment will save the Democrats there.  Nevada I also thought was fairly solid GOP in the next state election as well.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2017, 08:49:13 pm »

No tossup map, lighter shades = pickups:



2017: D+1 (NJ)
2018: D+6 (NM, IL, ME, MI, FL, NV)
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Representative ReaganClinton
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2017, 09:55:30 am »



Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2017, 11:33:47 am »



Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.

Ok, why is IL Lean R?  Even I don't have IL as Lean R and i'm 100% in for Rauner.
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Canis
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2017, 12:00:00 pm »


According to Trump all should be dark blue as his popularity is massive, he is the most yugely popular president ever.  The polls and news about his unpopularity are all fake.  And off course any state where the GOP doesn't win was because it was rigged or illegals voter en masse.

That being said in all seriousness generally sounds about right, my only question is with Wisconsin as I thought Scott Walker was not that popular, but is he term limited?  Kansas is another interesting one as although a staunchly GOP state, Sam Brownback has the lowest approval rating of any governor, but I don't believe he is running again.  Connecticut I thought was vulnerable although maybe the anti-Trump sentiment will save the Democrats there.  Nevada I also thought was fairly solid GOP in the next state election as well.
Walker's approval rating have recovered a bit but hes definitely not safe so thats why I have it only has likely republican
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2017, 05:37:44 pm »


Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
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Canis
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2017, 08:32:52 pm »


Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
Bill or Scott Walker?
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2017, 11:08:55 pm »


Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.
Bill or Scott Walker?
Bill. I should have clarified that.
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Representative ReaganClinton
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« Reply #23 on: August 15, 2017, 04:31:13 pm »



Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.

Ok, why is IL Lean R?  Even I don't have IL as Lean R and i'm 100% in for Rauner.
In hindsight, I would've put it as a tossup, but Kennedy doesn't instill much confidence within the Democratic party, and there aren't many other Democratic candidates at the moment, which is why I gave it the slight R tilt.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #24 on: August 15, 2017, 04:32:01 pm »



Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.

Ok, why is IL Lean R?  Even I don't have IL as Lean R and i'm 100% in for Rauner.
In hindsight, I would've put it as a tossup, but Kennedy doesn't instill much confidence within the Democratic party, and there aren't many other Democratic candidates at the moment, which is why I gave it the slight R tilt.

What about Pritzker?
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