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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2018 Senate Predictions & Analysis
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Latest 2018 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jaichind (L-NY)MapProfile 11-06 8 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
PragPop (D-MD)MapProfile 07-01 8 D +7 19 (-7) 16 (+7) 1 (0) 0
Republican95 (R-MS)MapProfile 10-30 3 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 0
Aguagon (D-AZ)MapProfile 11-05 1 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
rrussom1 (D-NC)MapProfile 11-06 6 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Checkard (D-OH)MapProfile 04-22 1 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
Politician (D-MA)MapProfile 11-02 111 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
Castro2020 (I-CT)MapProfile 11-03 10 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 0
bluesolid (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 21 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
tmthforu94 (I-KS)MapProfile 11-05 16 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jastone0493 (D-CO)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Lechasseur (R-FL)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +4 23 (-3) 13 (+4) 0 (-1) 0
Liberalrocks (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 3 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
AntonioV (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 7 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
SecureAmerica (R-NM)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
tomhguy (L-GBR)MapProfile 11-06 1 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
OctoCube (R-MA)MapProfile 11-06 2 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 0
Impartial (D-NY)MapProfile 11-06 4 D +10 17 (-9) 19 (+10) 0 (-1) 0
WaterHazard (I-IL)MapProfile 11-06 5 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 0
Horatii (R-MA)MapProfile 11-06 14 D +8 19 (-7) 17 (+8) 0 (-1) 0
Latest 2018 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
bluemcdowell (D-WV)
by bluemcdowell on 2019-01-24 @ 09:36:01
Map 11-02 65 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 5
Grassr00ts (R-IL)
by Grassr00ts on 2018-11-06 @ 22:11:10
MapProfile 10-31 1 D +5 21 (-5) 14 (+5) 1 (0) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-11-06 @ 03:33:00
MapProfile 11-05 6 D +6 21 (-5) 15 (+6) 0 (-1) 1
Beaver2 (D-VA)
by darthpi on 2018-11-05 @ 21:01:35
MapProfile 11-05 1 D +5 22 (-4) 14 (+5) 0 (-1) 1
darthpi (D-PA)
by darthpi on 2018-11-05 @ 20:46:09
MapProfile 11-05 26 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 1
man_of_honor885 (C-PA)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-10-26 @ 21:41:27
Map 10-08 2 D +9 18 (-8) 18 (+9) 0 (-1) 2
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-10-26 @ 21:37:20
MapProfile 10-07 5 D +7 20 (-6) 16 (+7) 0 (-1) 3
BushCountry (I-IN)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 10:53:27
MapProfile 09-13 21 D +7 19 (-7) 16 (+7) 1 (0) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by bluemcdowell on 2018-08-15 @ 04:29:01
MapProfile 08-13 4 D +4 23 (-3) 13 (+4) 0 (-1) 1
Politician (D-MA)
by Nik on 2018-07-31 @ 17:03:11
MapProfile 07-27 79 D +11 16 (-10) 20 (+11) 0 (-1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2018 Senate Predictions & Analysis  (Read 24261 times)
Cornpop Ethusiasts
Roblox
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« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2018, 05:09:57 pm »

Well, here's my final prediction https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

Basically, I think democrats pick up NV and AZ, but republicans flip ND. I'm predicting that Donnelly and McCaskill will hold on by the skin of their teeth, but I could easily see both going the other way. I'm especially unsure about Missouri, but it seems like Air Claire may have some last minute momentum there.

Predicted Margins for competitive races-

FL: 52-48 Nelson
MO: 49-48 McCaskill
IN: 48-46 Donnelly
NJ (lol): 53-43 Menendez
MT: 50-46 Tester
TN: 52-46 Blackburn
TX: 51-46 Cruz
WV: 51-45 Manchin
AZ: 49-47 Sinema
NV: 49-45 Rosen
ND: 54-46 Cramer
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JGibson
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« Reply #51 on: November 06, 2018, 04:16:14 am »

With Tossup, Tilt, Lean, Likely, and Safe:

50 GOP, 48 Dems, 2 Tossup | [D+1]


Projections of who'll win:

50 Democrats, 50 GOP [D+1]. GOP retains control via Pence.
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Speaker Thumb21
thumb21
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« Reply #52 on: November 06, 2018, 03:37:49 pm »

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jaichind
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« Reply #53 on: November 07, 2018, 02:42:43 pm »


This was my prediction exactly.  It seems we were both off in FL assuming both FL and AZ holds for GOP.
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Speaker Thumb21
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« Reply #54 on: November 07, 2018, 03:58:45 pm »


This was my prediction exactly.  It seems we were both off in FL assuming both FL and AZ holds for GOP.

Yeah. Florida was hard to see coming. I thought that there'd be enough of a turnout shift to unseat the slight Republican advantage in 2016. Seems not.
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Laki
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« Reply #55 on: November 09, 2018, 09:07:45 am »
« Edited: November 09, 2018, 09:26:56 am by Lakigigar »

Solid D: WA, HI, CA, MN, NM, NY, VA, RI, CT, VI, ME, MA, DE
Likely D: OH, PA, WI, MI, MN-2
Lean D: NJ, MT, WV
Toss-up: AZ, MO, NV, IN, FL, ND
Lean R: TN, TX
Likely R: MS-2
Solid R: UT, WY, NE, MS

I think currently that Dems will win AZ, NV while Republicans win MO, IN, FL and ND.



If i'm not mistaken, this was my map. So i got them all right? (if Florida and Arizona results stay the same).
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #56 on: November 09, 2018, 04:12:37 pm »

FL, provisionals are still being counted.
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katman46
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« Reply #57 on: November 09, 2018, 11:03:34 pm »

I, too, only got Arizona and Florida wrong. I knew my Arizona bet was a long one but regret not calling Florida right.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #58 on: November 09, 2018, 11:20:00 pm »

It’s been a while, and this will most likely be my last update before the election unless something changes dramatically.



(IA = MN-Special, AL = MS-Special)

47 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 6 Toss-ups

AZ: Likely D -> Lean D (Likely D was probably a bridge too far, but I’d say Sinema's still a slight favorite here. I could definitely see this and/or MT going Republican [narrowly] if the GOP has a better than expected night, though.)

OH/WV: Lean D -> Likely D (I don’t think an explanation is needed, honestly. Democrats should win both states unless 2018 turns out to be a 2014-style R year. Morrisey and Renacci have been major disappointments, honestly.)

TX: Lean R -> Likely R (Cruz might underperform, but he should be fine.)

However, I still think Republicans are well-positioned to win all the Toss-up races (ND/MS-Special/TN/MO/IN/FL in that order, with FL the one I’m least sure about).

So yeah, 53R/47D is my current (final?) prediction.

Not too bad. I feel so stupid for changing FL from Scott to Nelson at the last minute because of that Quinnipiac trash poll showing Nelson +7.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #59 on: November 10, 2018, 06:09:45 am »

Final Prediction Time!

AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson
MO: 49-47 Hawley
IN: 47-47 Braun

MT: 50-46 Tester
NV: 50-45 Rosen

ND: 54-46 Cramer
TN: 53-45 Blackburn
TX: 52-46 Cruz

WV: 53-44 Manchin (this I think has biggest upset potential)

Other less competitive races...

MI: 54-44 Stabenow
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
NJ: 53-43 Menendez
NM: 53-34-12 Henrich (Johnson in last)
OH: 54-46 Brown
PA: 55-44 Casey
VA: 57-41 Kaine
WI: 55-45 Baldwin


All others are beyond safe.

In Mississippi special, I expect Espy to finish narrowly in front of Hyde-Smith 40-38-20, while Hyde-Smith wins by 10-15 (57-43 is my prediction) in the runoff. I expect it to be very similar to Louisiana '14.

In my bold prediction this cycle, establishment Democrats get the biggest scare in California where Feinstein wins only 52-48 against de Leon.

Grading my predictions in terms of bias.

AZ: D+1 (so far)
FL: D+3
MO: D+4
IN: D+6
MT: D+1
NV: Boo-yah
ND: D+3
TN: D+3
TX: R+3
WV: D+6 (I did sense something, but I didn't predict a close race, damn)

MI: D+4
MN: R+4
NJ: R+1
NM: R+4 (underestimated Johnson by 3)
OH: D+2
PA: R+2
VA: Boo-yah
WI: R+1

MS-S: Not bad so far... (Overestimated McDaniel and underestimated Hyde-Smith by about 3 points)

CA: Looks like I'll be about 6 points off on my bold prediction, but still it should've been clear that Feinstein isn't very popular.

My overall average is slightly overestimating Democrats by 2-3 points. Better than my 2016 predictions for sure but still not factoring in the fundamentals of each race enough and still relying too much on polls, even though I tried to factor that in minimally this year. Still pretty decent all things considered.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #60 on: November 10, 2018, 07:49:03 am »

I have only just found the login details for the prediction page (which I thought I had lost) and therefore missed the boat, but my general view was the same as the forum. One Dem pickup in Maine from Independent, so at least I know that I was as wrong as everyone else
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katman46
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« Reply #61 on: November 30, 2018, 05:48:20 pm »

Okay you guys, I dug through all the predictions. Several people got the seat change (R +2) correct, and most of those people got Arizona and Florida wrong but every other state right. 11 people made up the maps with the exact winners, the earliest of these 11 maps was apparently made on May 17th. Out of 11 of them, none were Democrats. None of these people got the predictions right in every state, with only two predicting that nobody would get 50% in West Virginia, and both of those people predicted that no one would get 50% in Florida (come on guys, there were two people on the ballot). I didn't use any other litmus test besides those two states for the percentages, so I don't know who was the most accurate overall. Here are all the perfect predictions, listed from oldest to newest

May 17th (Weather243): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=701
July 1st (wxtransit): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=915
July 11th (TheLostDutchman): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=975
July 16th (terp40hitch): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1011
August 6th (RichardBennett): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1150
August 9th (Yellowhammer): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1165
September 5th (anna0kear): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1346
October 1st (HangingChad): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1616
October 26th (Lakigigar): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2053
November 2nd (cmbeattie): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2190
November 5th (ASV): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2370
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Jburns
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« Reply #62 on: November 30, 2018, 06:26:39 pm »

When is Atlas putting up the user prediction scores?
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Laki
Lakigigar
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« Reply #63 on: December 01, 2018, 09:28:54 am »
« Edited: December 01, 2018, 09:37:15 am by Lakigigar »

I didn't know there were only two people on the ballot in Florida, and i thought it was going to be a very / extremely close election, so i thought that it was going to be obvious that no-one would hit 50%... I thought it was normal that every senatorial election would have had third parties in them.

I made more mistakes though in voting percentages so i certainly didn't win. I wish i had paid more attention to exact percentages... . But apparently many made the same mistakes, but having Maryland wrong will hurt me... I hope i'll make up for it by having Braun over 50%.
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #64 on: December 01, 2018, 11:07:35 am »

I didn't know there were only two people on the ballot in Florida, and i thought it was going to be a very / extremely close election, so i thought that it was going to be obvious that no-one would hit 50%... I thought it was normal that every senatorial election would have had third parties in them.

I made more mistakes though in voting percentages so i certainly didn't win. I wish i had paid more attention to exact percentages... . But apparently many made the same mistakes, but having Maryland wrong will hurt me... I hope i'll make up for it by having Braun over 50%.

Florida was going to have a Libertarian in both races, but they both dropped out to speak out against the Florida Libertarian Party (as someone who’s had to work with them before, I don’t blame them). One of those two later revealed that he had developed heart problems based on the stress of campaigning. And the really sad part is the Senate candidate was a janitor who was campaigning to “clean up DC”, so he might’ve done well just off of humor
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #65 on: January 18, 2019, 04:58:03 pm »

Scores have been posted for the 2018 General Election. 
Lakigigar with highest score (35 state wins and 25 percentages)

Enjoy,
Dave
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #66 on: January 25, 2019, 10:44:08 am »

I got 2nd place!?
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2019, 11:43:30 am »

I didn't know there were only two people on the ballot in Florida, and i thought it was going to be a very / extremely close election, so i thought that it was going to be obvious that no-one would hit 50%... I thought it was normal that every senatorial election would have had third parties in them.

I made more mistakes though in voting percentages so i certainly didn't win. I wish i had paid more attention to exact percentages... . But apparently many made the same mistakes, but having Maryland wrong will hurt me... I hope i'll make up for it by having Braun over 50%.

Florida was going to have a Libertarian in both races, but they both dropped out to speak out against the Florida Libertarian Party (as someone who’s had to work with them before, I don’t blame them). One of those two later revealed that he had developed heart problems based on the stress of campaigning. And the really sad part is the Senate candidate was a janitor who was campaigning to “clean up DC”, so he might’ve done well just off of humor
they no they got no chance of winning right? they oculd have just kept them on the ballet.
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