City strategy and the midwest.

[TJ in Oregon]

Part of the shrinking urban center/D-trending suburb phenomenon is simply that people who previously lived in the city and voted Democratic have since moved to the suburbs while continuing to vote Democratic. It's not the whole thing. But part (and in the case of Detroit/Oakland County a really big part) of it.

[TJ in Oregon]

Most of the midwest is losing population except some of the suburbs around the big cities, or certain growth hubs like Dane WI, Washtenaw MI, or Franklin OH.

If anything the suburbs continuing to trend Democratic will be what causes problems for the Republicans with the rural areas losing people.

Except is there any evidence that the Suburbs are actually trending Democrat? I know that here in Pennsylvania Suburban Pittsburgh is becoming very Republican very quickly and Suburban Philadelphia started to Trend Democrat from 2004 to 2008 but since has stopped.

Hillary did better than Obama in the Philly suburbs, reclaiming Chester county and putting up better margins in Delco and etc.

I vaguely remember seeing a data (I can't find the source though) that said Romney won American suburbs 51-48 while Trump won them 49-45. So basically a wash. Hillary almost certainly improved over Obama in upscale suburbs while underperforming in working class suburbs (which are an underrated contributor to the total).