Will Donald Trump attract at least one major primary challenger in 2020?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

-see topic and question-

[TheSaint250]

41-50%

[Mr. Morden]

What do you mean by "major"?  What do you mean by "celebrity or officeholder"?  If it's someone who no longer holds political office, but used to (e.g., Kasich will no longer hold office by 2020), does that count?

I think there's a reasonably high probability that someone will run who will get at least some minimum amount of media coverage, and who would have a decent shot at Buchanan '92-like numbers, where they get more than 20% of the vote nationally, and more than 35% in a couple of states (but not necessarily winning any primaries).  But that person may be someone like an Evan McMullin who was previously unknown, rather than a John Kasich or Rand Paul.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

If his approval ratings are still down like this, he hasn't fulfilled many of his promises and 2018 was a disaster yes.

IMO it comes down to 2018. If Republicans get a supermajority (entirely possible) and the House is barely dented in then I don't think he gets a primary challenger. If the Republican Senate barely moves the needle (TBH their worst case scenario looks like they only gain a couple seats) and the House is flipped then if Trump avoids impeachment they will attempt to primary him.

The thing is they likely won't succeed in primaring him but they could damage him like how Ted damaged Jimmy in 1980 and Buchanan damaged Bush in 1992.

[Mr. Morden]

The thing is they likely won't succeed in primaring him but they could damage him like how Ted damaged Jimmy in 1980 and Buchanan damaged Bush in 1992.

I'm actually not sure it works like that anymore.  Trump is unpopular among GOP elites, he always has been, and that's unlikely to change between now and 2020.  Last year, fully a fifth of GOP Senators wouldn't even endorse him in the general election, yet it seems not to have mattered, as he won anyway.  For all we know, Trump could spin an unsuccessful primary challenge as more evidence that he's put a scare in "the establishment", and voters in the general election will largely brush it off, just like they brushed off the fact that party elites weren't united behind him last time.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

The thing is they likely won't succeed in primaring him but they could damage him like how Ted damaged Jimmy in 1980 and Buchanan damaged Bush in 1992.

I'm actually not sure it works like that anymore.  Trump is unpopular among GOP elites, he always has been, and that's unlikely to change between now and 2020.  Last year, fully a fifth of GOP Senators wouldn't even endorse him in the general election, yet it seems not to have mattered, as he won anyway.  For all we know, Trump could spin an unsuccessful primary challenge as more evidence that he's put a scare in "the establishment", and voters in the general election will largely brush it off, just like they brushed off the fact that party elites weren't united behind him last time.

I see what you're saying, but the GOP Establishment will continue to apply typical political science rules to Trump and will probably try anyway (depending on how 2018 turns out).

It's like people don't get Trump is not a typical politician thus the typical rules don't apply to him (note: I am not saying you say that, but I bet you the GOPe will).

[Mister Mets]

I think it's higher than 80 percent.

There are a lot of Never-Trumpers, the first few months of his presidency have been flawed, and there are too many rewards for running for President.

[Mr. Morden]

The thing is they likely won't succeed in primaring him but they could damage him like how Ted damaged Jimmy in 1980 and Buchanan damaged Bush in 1992.

I'm actually not sure it works like that anymore.  Trump is unpopular among GOP elites, he always has been, and that's unlikely to change between now and 2020.  Last year, fully a fifth of GOP Senators wouldn't even endorse him in the general election, yet it seems not to have mattered, as he won anyway.  For all we know, Trump could spin an unsuccessful primary challenge as more evidence that he's put a scare in "the establishment", and voters in the general election will largely brush it off, just like they brushed off the fact that party elites weren't united behind him last time.

I see what you're saying, but the GOP Establishment will continue to apply typical political science rules to Trump and will probably try anyway (depending on how 2018 turns out).

But that's irrelevant to my point.  A primary challenge wouldn't be waged for the purpose of damaging Trump in the GE.  It would be waged as a last ditch attempt to seize the party away from Trump.  And I think whoever's doing it would be fully aware of the fact that it would be a long shot to succeed.

Also, while Trump will portray whoever challenges him as "the establishment" (which is funny, coming from the incumbent president), it's not clear to me that the challenger will come from that wing at all.  He might well be challenged by a Justin Amash or a Rand Paul.

[The Mikado]

Would a Trump-Kasich primary where Trump wins just about everywhere 80-20 be considered a "major primary challenge?"

EDIT: Also, as Mr. Morden said, Trump could be challenged "from the right" (if that even makes sense) by Justin Amash, which would be even more uphill of a battle.

[Mister Mets]

Would a Trump-Kasich primary where Trump wins just about everywhere 80-20 be considered a "major primary challenge?"

EDIT: Also, as Mr. Morden said, Trump could be challenged "from the right" (if that even makes sense) by Justin Amash, which would be even more uphill of a battle.

Any relatively recent Governor or Senator would probably count as a major challenger.

There are more question marks if it's someone who has been out of office for a long time (Mike Gravel in 2008) or a backbencher congressman (Thad McCotter in 2012.)

[Mr. Morden]

EDIT: Also, as Mr. Morden said, Trump could be challenged "from the right" (if that even makes sense) by Justin Amash, which would be even more uphill of a battle.

I don't think Amash can win the nomination, but I think there's actually a decent chance that he would get more votes in a 1-on-1 primary campaign against Trump than Kasich (or similar candidate) would in a 1-on-1 primary campaign against Trump.  If you only attack Trump from the center (as Kasich presumably would, since he spends all his time talking about things like Medicaid expansion), then I think your pool of available votes in a GOP primary is pretty limited.  Even if a large swath of the party's voter base becomes disillusioned with Trump, they're not going to have an appetite for the kind of critique that Kasich will offer.  There are only so many Kasich-ian voters left in the party.

OTOH, I bet that under the right circumstances, there would be plenty who would be ready for some kind of "Trump has betrayed conservatism by selling out conservative principles" argument.  So someone from the "libertarian" wing of the party could run against Trump from both the right and the center at the same time, and tap into that kind of voting base.

[You are responsible]

About 80%.

[Mr. Smith]

31-40% atm.

I'm not buying that the GOP won't bend over for him just 'cuz they're too afraid to vote D on anything.

I'm sure there'll be plenty of hemming and hawwing, but ultimately, the heads and most prospectives know what'll happen if they go full on Teddy vs Carter. Just handover to the D's after damaging the incumbent in a feeble attempt to wrest control and redefine Establishment (by 2020 Trump will be establishment...it's already happening)

[Technocracy Timmy]

President Trump will face a challenge.

President Pence wouldn't.

[Fuzzy Bear]

He will likely be primaried by a former Governor or Senator.  If all else fails, Kasich will try.

The effort will not work.  The serious candidates will stay out and back Trump, ensuring an opening for 2024.

[Rjjr77]

Sure, i mean John Kasich, if thats considered major, will primary Trump and get beat up and down the primary map

[Devout Centrist]

If he makes it to 2020, it's guaranteed. John Kasich will undoubtedly challenge him, it's pretty f**king obvious at this point. Maybe Cruz will get in on the action.

If Trump's approvals are in the low thirties or high twenties, he could lose New Hampshire and a few other contests.

[BuckeyeNut]

Kasich is almost definitely running.

[The Mikado]

31-40% atm.

I'm not buying that the GOP won't bend over for him just 'cuz they're too afraid to vote D on anything.

I'm sure there'll be plenty of hemming and hawwing, but ultimately, the heads and most prospectives know what'll happen if they go full on Teddy vs Carter. Just handover to the D's after damaging the incumbent in a feeble attempt to wrest control and redefine Establishment (by 2020 Trump will be establishment...it's already happening)

Kasich and/or Amash will probably run.

Trump could refuse to debate them and cruise to a series of 80/20 wins without trying, but he can't prevent them from running.

[GGover]

He's unpopular, the establishment is unhappy with him, and there are politicians like Sasse and Flake who openly talk about their distaste for him. The conditions seem perfect for a primary challenger.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's more likely than not, but no one will declare before the midterms unless it becomes obvious that the Republicans will lose control of Congress in 2018 before the election is even held.

[HisGrace]

Kasich transparently seems like he's grooming himself for a run. Someone more conservative like Cruz could jump in if his approval ratings are down in the 20's or something. Any challengers to Trump would certainly have access to loads of money, so there's not an access issue like there normally would be challenging a sitting president. I'd put it at about 90% just due to Kasich.