Will Arizona trend Democratic again in 2020?

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

It seems a lot of posters here believe that AZ is headed the same way as NV/CO/NM, but I'm honestly not so sure about that. There's a significant elderly/retiree population in the state, and that seems to have consistently kept it "redder" than surrounding states, even though it has a higher percentage of Latinos than Nevada or Colorado. If Flake or Ducey lose in 2018, that could definitely be a sign that it is becoming a swing state, and could go Democratic in 2020, but right now, it still seems kind of like an inverse Minnesota: Always just slightly out of reach for Democrats.

[heatcharger]

Seems too hard to tell right now, but 2018 in Arizona could be like 2005/2006 was like in Virginia.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

[CivicParticipant]

No

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

I'd say no, mostly because up until Obama, every president since FDR has performed better in their second election (if they won).

[AN63093]

AZ has got to be on everyone's top of the list for states to watch.  Long-term, I expect a D trend since the demographics are not particularly favorable to the GOP here.

2020 is a different ball game though.  In 2016, AZ had one of the highest D swings in the country, following only UT, CA, and TX (by the way, as a side note, every time I open up the swing map I chuckle a little at UT.  That has got to be one of the most comical little factoids about the 2016 election).

So I guess the question would be, do we think that swing was a bit of an aberration and AZ goes "back to normal," or are margins of <5% the "new normal."  

If it's the former, we'll get an R swing and also an R trend, particularly if Trump loses the PV again (which I think is actually pretty likely, even if he wins re-election).  If it's the latter, then we could get either a slight R or D swing, and I would suspect the trend would be similar, unless Trump runs away with the PV, and I don't know how likely that is.  He could improve, but I don't know by how much.  If anything, the opposite is more likely, in my opinion- I think due to the geographical concentration of millennials and Hispanics, there is a possibility, maybe even a good possibility, that Trump actually goes down in the PV by increasing the margin in CA even more, while still winning the EC.

Either way, at this point I'm predicting an R trend.. it may not be by much, but I think AZ will still swing at least a little more R than the nation, due to the factors Xavier mentioned, the fact that I don't know how realistic it is that Trump significantly improves in the national PV, and I guess also the fact that the Johnson effect will (presumably) be absent.  Granted, he didn't do as well in AZ as many other western states, but he still got 4%.  It may be a very minor R swing, and the trend might be basically non-existent or ever so slightly R, but I'd guess that's a little more likely, at least for 2020, than the margin narrowing even more.  Of course, long term, as already discussed, that's a different story.

A slight D trend is possible too.  What I don't see as very likely is another large D trend.  This would mean that.. well, first off, AZ has probably flipped.  Second, the margins in AZ would be narrowing even faster than the PV is moving, even if Trump loses more of the PV.  This would have to mean he's getting the votes elsewhere, such as increasing margins in PA or MI.  I would be a little alarmed if this is the case, because it increases the possibility that we're accelerating towards a US of extreme racial polarization as I've predicted as one possible future scenario.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I would predict that it's more or less the same as 2016, meaning that the Democratic candidate in 2020 would have to put up almost 2008 Obama numbers to win it (so far from impossible, but likely improbable).

[Sic Semper Tyrannis]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Can I get the model number of your crystal ball, please?

[TDAS04]

I don't know how it will trend, but I think it will swing Democratic.

[Mr. Smith]

Yeah, but probably not by much.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Can I get the model number of your crystal ball, please?

Hey I was right about 2016 while the experts were wrong.

So perhaps I should be listened to.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Don't need it, FL will be more libertarian due to PR statehood.

[TML]

Maybe it could trend D, but I doubt it will actually flip unless either (1) Maricopa County flips, or (2) margins in rural areas return to Bill Clinton's 1990s levels.

[Pericles]

It will be won by the Democrats in 2020.

[President Johnson]

Depends on the Democratic candidate and Trump's standing by then. But I'm not sure Pence would do better than Trump in Arizona. If the Democrat wins the general election, he or she will probably keep Arizona so close that it may go either way.

[Lachi]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Can I get the model number of your crystal ball, please?

Hey I was right about 2016 while the experts were wrong.

So perhaps I should be listened to.

Cute.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Most certainly. Trump's nose-diving approval rating and the growing latino population will cause it to trend blue in 2020. I wouldn't be surprised if it pulls a PA/MI.

[Devils30]

Arizona will be part of any Democratic victory in 2020, I'm serious.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Can I get the model number of your crystal ball, please?

Hey I was right about 2016 while the experts were wrong.

So perhaps I should be listened to.

Cute.

Why should I believe so-called "experts" who have been wrong every step of the way about Trump?

Trump will be fine in 2020.

[Coraxion]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Can I get the model number of your crystal ball, please?

Hey I was right about 2016 while the experts were wrong.

So perhaps I should be listened to.

Cute.

Why should I believe so-called "experts" who have been wrong every step of the way about Trump?

Trump will be fine in 2020.

Hehe. It will be funny when the experts are right about 2020 and you are not, because of your refusal to believe them.

[RFKFan68]

I think the results in Arizona will be the same margins as Michigan 2016 in the Democrat's favor.

[mgop]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Can I get the model number of your crystal ball, please?

Hey I was right about 2016 while the experts were wrong.

So perhaps I should be listened to.

Cute.

Why should I believe so-called "experts" who have been wrong every step of the way about Trump?

Trump will be fine in 2020.

Hehe. It will be funny when the experts are right about 2020 and you are not, because of your refusal to believe them.

you guys haven't guess right one thing in last more that 2 years about trump. this forum is like some kind of parallel liberal universe.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Hehe. It will be funny when the experts are right about 2020 and you are not, because of your refusal to believe them.

So the people who were wrong about Trump constantly are all of a sudden going to be right?

According to the experts Trump isn't even supposed to run for re-election in 2020. He's supposed to be the host of Trump TV...

In 2016, Trump got 49.7% of the vote in Arizona but Johnson got 4.2%. Romney got 53.7% of the vote in Arizona. 49.7 + 4.2 = 53.9. McCain got roughly 53.7% of the vote in 2016 as well.

However, due to demographic changes and not all Romney-Republicans going to Trump, I don't think Trump will get 53-54% of the vote like Romney or McCain.

Trump will also improve his margin in nearly all 50 states in 2020 - so he will win Arizona by 5-6% easily. Something like 52-46 or close.

[Pericles]

Trump will win Arizona 52-46 in 2020, so not quite. It will likely go red in 2024 as well but 2028 it will go blue.

Can I get the model number of your crystal ball, please?

Hey I was right about 2016 while the experts were wrong.

So perhaps I should be listened to.

Cute.

Why should I believe so-called "experts" who have been wrong every step of the way about Trump?

Trump will be fine in 2020.

Hehe. It will be funny when the experts are right about 2020 and you are not, because of your refusal to believe them.

you guys haven't guess right one thing in last more that 2 years about trump. this forum is like some kind of parallel liberal universe.

I got that he is unfit to be POTUS. He may have succeeded as a candidate barely (he should have won by more) but he can't deliver the goods. As it says in the Art of the Deal, “You can’t con people, at least not for long.  If you don’t deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on.” People are catching on which is why his approval rating is at 37%.

[Coraxion]

Hehe. It will be funny when the experts are right about 2020 and you are not, because of your refusal to believe them.

Trump will also improve his margin in nearly all 50 states in 2020 - so he will win Arizona by 5-6% easily. Something like 52-46 or close.

Right. I don't waste my time with idiots. Ignored.