AL-SEN 2017 predictions?

[Gass3268]

Likely R, but way closer to Safe R

[Cynthia]

Likely R.

GOP Primary:
Moore 35%
Strange 31%
Brooks 27%
Others 7%

GOP Runoff:
Moore 50.5%
Strange 49.5%

DEM Primary:
Kennedy 47%
Jones 30%
Others 23%

DEM Runoff:
Jones 57%
Kennedy 43%

General:
Moore 53%
Jones 47%

[Blair]

Kennedy has a website which looks legit. I assume since he has the jnr that he wasn't named after RFK; and he appears to be born before 1968.

Outside of African-Americans, I thought that Bobby was widely hated in the South (the Macomb focus group in the 1980s was infamously venomous about him)

[brucejoel99]

(Bump)

GOP primary:
36.8% Moore
32.4% Strange
19.4% Brooks
11.4% Others

GOP runoff:
51% Moore
49% Strange

Moore & Strange advance to a runoff, which Moore wins narrowly b/c it's hard to see how Strange gets 50% in a runoff if he comes in 2nd place DESPITE the Trump endorsement & the millions already spent bet. McConnell/Trump PACs. Plus, he has really angered Brooks' supporters w/ the never ending attack ads (funded by McConnell, of course), so Brooks voters either stay home or vote Moore in the runoff.

FWIW, this race gets interesting when Moore gets the nomination. National Republicans will either have to support a relic to social conservatism they're trying to distance themselves from or abandon their candidate like they did w/ Todd Akin, but Moore doesn't need national Republican support to win. Yes, he'll be ostracized in the Senate, but he has already been elected statewide before.



DEM primary:
47.4% Jones
33.2% Kennedy
19.4% Others

DEM runoff:
61.9% Jones
38.1% Kennedy

Jones wins the runoff easily & proceeds to the general, & he'll have some value if he can present himself as a Joe Manchin-type & refrain from criticizing Trump, but...



General election:
56% Moore
44% Jones

...Jones isn't the new Scott Brown (&, again, Moore doesn't need national Republican support to win). He won't win, but it'll be relatively close for a state Trump won by 28 points (& the home state of George Wallace), though probably still a >10 point win.

[The Other Castro]

Updated, final prediction:

GOP primary:
Moore - 38%
Strange - 31%
Brooks - 20%
Others - 11%

GOP runoff:
Moore - 51%
Strange - 49%

Democratic primary:
Jones - 44%
Kennedy - 39%
Others - 17%

Democratic runoff:
Jones - 57%
Kennedy - 43%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

(Bump)

GOP primary:
36.8% Moore
32.4% Strange
19.4% Brooks
11.4% Others

GOP runoff:
51% Moore
49% Strange

Moore & Strange advance to a runoff, which Moore wins narrowly b/c it's hard to see how Strange gets 50% in a runoff if he comes in 2nd place DESPITE the Trump endorsement & the millions already spent bet. McConnell/Trump PACs. Plus, he has really angered Brooks' supporters w/ the never ending attack ads (funded by McConnell, of course), so Brooks voters either stay home or vote Moore in the runoff.

FWIW, this race gets interesting when Moore gets the nomination. National Republicans will either have to support a relic to social conservatism they're trying to distance themselves from or abandon their candidate like they did w/ Todd Akin, but Moore doesn't need national Republican support to win. Yes, he'll be ostracized in the Senate, but he has already been elected statewide before.



DEM primary:
47.4% Jones
33.2% Kennedy
19.4% Others

DEM runoff:
61.9% Jones
38.1% Kennedy

Jones wins the runoff easily & proceeds to the general, & he'll have some value if he can present himself as a Joe Manchin-type & refrain from criticizing Trump, but...



General election:
56% Moore
44% Jones

...Jones isn't the new Scott Brown (&, again, Moore doesn't need national Republican support to win). He won't win, but it'll be relatively close for a state Trump won by 28 points (& the home state of George Wallace), though probably still a >10 point win.

No doubt Jones loses, but if it by a respectable margin, he could be a decent recruit for Alabama Attorney General... who knows, maybe he could be Alabama's Jim Hood... probably not, but the lower state-wide offices are a tiny more flexible than the upper ones, anyways, he would be the best shot we have. He has like a 4% chance in this race (being quite generous here), but for attorney general of Alabama, I'd give him like 9%(probably even a bit higher).

[BuckeyeNut]

Anyone think it's odd Kennedy volunteers he interned for a Republican Rep...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone think it's odd Kennedy volunteers he interned for a Republican Rep...

For starters, he is a conservadem, so they would most likely coexist fine, and also, a lot of people take political internships with preference of people of their own political party, but will still take an opposing one if that's the only option. I know of a person or two like that. Heck, if I was offered an internship by a decent Republican (or really most any of them) I would take it.

[Holmes]

A lot of things are strange about Kennedy.

MT Treasurer, why do you think Kennedy is a stronger candidate than Jones?

[Xing]

Republican primary:
Moore 38%
Strange 35%
Brooks 17%
Others 10%

Republican run-off:
Strange 52%
Moore 48%

Democratic primary:
Jones 48%
Kennedy 37%
Others 15%

Democratic run-off:
Jones 56%
Kennedy 44%

General election:
Strange 57%
Jones 43%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

1st Round:
Moore: 38%
Strange: 28%
Brooks: 27%
Others: 5%

Runoff:
Moore: 51%
Strange: 49%

Kennedy: 58%
Jones: 42%

General:
Moore: 58%
Kennedy: 42%

Other candidates:

Strange: 62%
Kennedy: 38%

Brooks: 60%
Kennedy: 40%

Jones probably does two points worse than Kennedy across the board.  Safe R.

Updated predictions:

Moore: 40%
Strange: 29%
Brooks: 23%
Others: 8%

Kennedy: 47%
Jones: 43%
Others: 10%

Moore: 55%
Strange: 45%

Jones: 50.3%
Kennedy: 49.7%

Moore: 57%
Jones: 43%

[Del Tachi]

Moore 41%
Strange 30%
Brooks 22%
Pittman 5%

[Pandaguineapig]

I'll be bold:

Moore:45
Brooks:23
Strange:22
Others:10

Kennedy: 51
Jones: 37
Others: 12

[_]

Republican:

Moore:  38%
Strange:  31%
Brooks:  23%
Others:  8%

Runoff:
Moore:  57%
Strange:  43%


Democratic:

Kennedy:  47%
Jones:  35%
Others:  18%


Runoff: 
Kennedy: 58%
Jones:  42%




Waiting for GE Polling for GE Prediction.

[mcmikk]

Here is what I think will happen in the 2017 Alabama Senate race. Now as we all know Big LUTH will probably end up as the GOP nominee. Doug Jones is the Dem one. But he is the game changer. One woman, Mary Maxwell, candidate for NH-02 in 2006 will be the Independent write-in candidate. She shall win by several points. Here are the results for the race:

Senator Luther Strange (R)- 10%
Former US Attorney Doug Jones (D)- 10%
Candidate for NH-02 in 2006 Mary Maxwell (I-Write In)- 78%
Others- 2%

Let us just crown her inevitable Senator Mary Maxwell.

[MT Treasurer]

*bump*

GOP runoff:

53% Moore
47% Strange

General election:

55% Roy Moore (R)
45% Doug Jones (D)

53% Luther Strange (R)
47% Doug Jones (D)

Rating is Likely R.

Moving this to Lean R, but my prediction for the primary remains the same (and probably the final one). That said, I expect the GE to be a bit closer than that now (and I might move the race to Tossup if Strange is the nominee)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Safe R

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My FINAL Prediction for the GOP runoff tomorrow.

Moore:56
Strange:44

Strange does well in Birmingham area, and does mediocre, not even that ok, in Mobile and Baldwin, and does OK in Northern Brooks area and near Huntsville. Besides that, he will probably get obliterated elsewhere, with a few small strongholds scattered here and there.

[°Leprechaun]

I predict that someone very strange or someone even stranger will win today.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Okay, why not...

GOP Primary Runoff:

Moore - 55%
Strange - 45%

General:

Moore - 52%
Jones - 48%

[Canis]

My prediction for the Runoff today
 
Moore - 52%
Strange 48%

[Horus]

Moore - 55
Strange - 45

Moore - 58
Jones - 42

[KingSweden]

Moore wins, unfortunately

[Alabama_Indy10]

Me and my dad just got back from voting.. Turnout is up a good bit at our small precinct.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Moore: 57%
Strange: 43%

Moore: 60%
Jones: 40%