Is Pennsylvania gone for Trump?

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Has Trump destroyed the GOP trend in PA? His disapproval rating in the state bucks 60%. I cannot see him winning the state unless the Democrats nominate Hillary again.

[TDAS04]

I wish.

[Mr. Smith]

Nope.

Obama didn't have great NC numbers after '08...he proceeded to barely lose it and only because of almost no campaign there with only a token move to hosting the DNC in Charlotte.

[Beet]

Don't forget Trump's disapproval on election day was absurdly high. He was viewed even less favorably than he is now. Yet he still won a record number of GOP votes in Pennsylvania.

Outside of parts of Philly and the "Pittsburgh hospital/university revival", Pennsylvania is an elderly, declining, industrial state whose loyalty to the Democrats was only based on economic populism. Nominating another Obama-style Democrat who offers nothing on the populism front won't cut it there, it might work against a Romney-style Republican, but not against Trump.

[RINO Tom]

Nowhere that an incumbent President won the first time is "gone," period.  I doubt he wins it in 2020 (because I doubt he wins re-election), but this topic is ridiculous.

[Coraxion]

Yes.

[Mr. Smith]

Nowhere that an incumbent President won the first time is "gone," period.  I doubt he wins it in 2020 (because I doubt he wins re-election), but this topic is ridiculous.

Indiana for Obama says hi.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

No, and Democrats would be foolish to assume that Trump winning there was a fluke. I don't think it's going the way of Missouri (at least not yet), but Trump showed that it's winnable for Republicans, and Democrats have to take PA seriously as a swing state.

[CivicParticipant]

Never. Trust me I know because I live here. It's a swing state now.

[RINO Tom]

Nowhere that an incumbent President won the first time is "gone," period.  I doubt he wins it in 2020 (because I doubt he wins re-election), but this topic is ridiculous.

Indiana for Obama says hi.

And in 2009, IN was not "gone" for his re-election.

[DrScholl]

It's gone. He only won it by a plurality as a non-incumbent and that was with third parties on the ballot. Trump as an incumbent is completely different than Trump as a mere candidate.

[pbrower2a]

Nowhere that an incumbent President won the first time is "gone," period.  I doubt he wins it in 2020 (because I doubt he wins re-election), but this topic is ridiculous.

Indiana for Obama, 2008.

[Liberalrocks]

Hillary would win it if the election were held today. He will really have to rebound hard to win it again.

[RFKFan68]

It's gone. He only won it by a plurality as a non-incumbent and that was with third parties on the ballot. Trump as an incumbent is completely different than Trump as a mere candidate.

Agreed. Some folks are really running with this notion to expect the unexpected because of how he won the first time. It was a weak victory. They would have an argument if he was killing it in Washington and proving the naysayers wrong but he's a big, fat flop. He can't get skate by with not having a political career to blast and screaming "Emails!" "Lock her up"! He will keep it competitive maybe but he won't win.

[Holmes]

If the election were today, yes, quite handily. But after touring the state and spreading his hate and ignorance (his definition of campaigning), he might still have a chance.

[TML]

If the Democrats nominate another Hillary-type candidate, then Trump can definitely win PA again. If they nominate a Sanders-type candidate, then PA will likely flip back to the Democrats.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Don't forget Trump's disapproval on election day was absurdly high. He was viewed even less favorably than he is now. Yet he still won a record number of GOP votes in Pennsylvania.

Outside of parts of Philly and the "Pittsburgh hospital/university revival", Pennsylvania is an elderly, declining, industrial state whose loyalty to the Democrats was only based on economic populism. Nominating another Obama-style Democrat who offers nothing on the populism front won't cut it there, it might work against a Romney-style Republican, but not against Trump.

PA population growth patterns don't show that. The rural areas are bleeding population, while the philly suburbs are growing and bluing.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yes

[Don Vito Corleone]

Never. Trust me I know because I live here. It's a swing state now.

Now? It was always a swing state, even before 2016.
Wikipedia has this great image from their article on the 2004 election:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/2004CampaignAttention.png
The caption on the image reads as follows: These maps show the amount of attention given by the campaigns to the close states. At left, each waving hand represents a visit from a presidential or vice-presidential candidate during the final five weeks. At right, each dollar sign represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising by the campaigns during the same time period.

See all that attention the campaigns gave to PA (and WI too for that matter)? You don't give a state that much attention unless it's a swing state.

[AN63093]

Gone?  LOL.  What a ridiculous idea.  Adding this thread to my list of ones to bump in a few years.

Long term, PA is trending R and I would expect it to in most elections going forward, though it may occasionally trend D as a one-off thing (one of those years could be 2020, in fact).  However, all that being said, the GOP obviously has to intensely contest it.  PA may be a lean R state in the future and the demographics are favorable for the GOP here, but it isn't exactly an inverse VA yet.  I suspect in 2020 PA will once again be one of the top 5 closest states in terms of margin.

I don't think approval ratings at this point are particularly helpful, no more so than a state poll would be.  Especially when in a period of high polarization and a generally inelastic electorate.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

No, unless you guys want to underestimate him again.

^^^
This. If 2016 showed us anything is that Trump can't be underestimated. Every time he looked done he bounced back. I certainly don't think Trump wins a second term, I wouldn't discount that possibility. Anyway I also don't see a realistic path to victory for Trump without Pennsylvania.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

No. Out of all the Trump states, only Michigan is gone.

[PragmaticPopulist]

It will be gone for Trump if Democrats nominate a someone better than the worst possible fit for it since Dukakis. Hillary Clinton cratered in ancestrally Democratic Western PA, where Obama was able to keep the margins within single digits.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

He literally won it several months ago.

[Deblano]

I'd say Michigan is more gone for Trump than Pennsylvania.

Michigan was the most "fluke" state that Trump won IMO.

If Trump wins again, a win in Michigan is by no means inevitable.